CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM should be SE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 EC ENS QPF... 1.00 IZG-LEB-RUT 1.50 SFM-CON-EEN-PSF 2.00 BVY-ORH-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM slowed the escape of the s/w vs 12z, which brings it closer into the fold of the other models. Not much of interest in it. IE, it caved towards the others. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM will come back E and be a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 256 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013 ...STRONG COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST FROM THERE ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTWARD TO THE MAINE COAST. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITHIN THE STORM WILL DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION WILL SEE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING TWO FEET OR MORE. IN ADDITION...THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MEZ023-NHZ014-080400- /O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0002.130208T1700Z-130209T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1900Z-130209T2100Z/ COASTAL YORK-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH... KITTERY...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON 256 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL YORK COUNTY IN MAINE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...A LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM brings the southern stream further east before phasing...though the southern stream is definitely stronger. Stronger doesn't mean further west necesarily since the 12z run was sort os spuriously bringing up far north before it really had phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just incredible.........all snow and a beat down...........some of the best model porn I have ever seen in my life if not the best....H7 was a dead give away, come so close to the taint and then everything just crashes into dendritical magic albeit smashed dendrites. WOW WOW WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Box to put Bliz warnings out soon..wonder if Gray will follow...I am in awe with the way this is unfolding for New England...A true Kocin Blizzard... http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine I think GYX will do BW for SE NH and Coastal ME, not CON or LEW as the winds aren't projected to be strong enough I don't think. I'd prefer no blizz warning so my ratios are high and my crystals are intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The QPF on this NAM run is going to be obscene for a large chunk of the area and I think especially for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM should be SE I think. Yep... this is exactly what I was alluding to before. Just because the southern stream shortwave is stronger than progged does not mean the storm will move further west. In fact, if it dominates the phase it will likely result in a further south and east track and a delayed phase since the northern stream doesn't capture the shortwave fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow nam going to destroy nnj on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM is warm for SE Mass for a time. Looks great 6z Saturday. I'm excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think GYX will do BW for SE NH and Coastal ME, not CON or LEW as the winds aren't projected to be strong enough I don't think. I'd prefer no blizz warning so my ratios are high and my crystals are intact. Agreed--this far in the winds will cause drifting and blowing, but won't be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yep... this is exactly what I was alluding to before. Just because the southern stream shortwave is stronger than progged does not mean the storm will move further west. In fact, if it dominates the phase it will likely result in a further south and east track and a delayed phase since the northern stream doesn't capture the shortwave fast enough. Yes this is absolutely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow nam going to destroy nnj on this run. OT for this subforum but what's going on from DC to NYC? I mean they're right on the edge from a huge hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM brings the southern stream further east before phasing...though the southern stream is definitely stronger. Stronger doesn't mean further west necesarily since the 12z run was sort os spuriously bringing up far north before it really had phased. Bingo. Its a huge hit for Boston and folks south and east of the Green Mountains, but folks further north and west won't probably like this trend seen in the modeling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes this is absolutely true. Yeah if it kicks out and is stronger, will not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, the NAM shifted east, last hope of a big hit here out west. Have fun in eastern NE guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I deliver meds from 11am to 4pm in Boston to Taunton area, then i do a route from Framingham to Worcester from 6-9pm. Guessing no PM route tomorrow. Problem is im technically essential personnel. Wondering how im gonna pull this off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man, that NAM is crushing a huge section of the Northeast...the QPF output almost looks unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM seems a bit too warm with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The sim radar at 6z on the NAM is one of the most beautiful images I've ever seen. Just a region wide crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll take my 1.5 or whatever it was from the EC and hope for the best on ratios and a weenie band. The fact that the EC op was on its own with this for several runs is just mind-boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM seems a bit too warm with a track like that. Agreed, it's been a warm outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you guys think ill have time to get on my early route in Boston down to Taunton tomorrow from 1130-330? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll take my 1.5 or whatever it was from the EC and hope for the best on ratios and a weenie band. The fact that the EC op was on its own with this for several runs is just mind-boggling. That is an epic death band over us on the 18z NAM. Absolutely crushes us between 06z and 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you guys think ill have time to get on my early route in Boston down to Taunton tomorrow from 1130-330? wrong thread...go to banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree Scot, NAM too warm for its track, likely more snow then currently modeled for the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man that is just going to be one heavy wall of snow across SNE on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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