CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 lol...is there something in everyone's water today? How is 1-3" not precise enough? At 20:1 ratios that's a range of 0.05-0.15". I wonder if eduggs ever made a forecast other than to his parents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I don't see how that is very relevant. Would you ever forecast a coating to an inch? I would and almost every meteorologist does. By definition an inch is infinitely more than a coating. Or if you wanted to have a precise number...is ten times more than 0.1". 1" and 3" are still only 2 inches apart and if you have a small event, then both numbers could be very reasonable depending on ratios and/or banding. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Btw eduggs your last statement makes no sense. How can you say 10-20 is tight? Sounds like the guess of a completely clueless person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's US models against the world. Dustings -1 on US stuff and 1-3 rest of world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 lol...is there something in everyone's water today? How is 1-3" not precise enough? At 20:1 ratios that's a range of 0.05-0.15". Ha ha, I know it! wow... Let's look at things this way: The national weather service defines categorical snow falls based upon ranges, such as 1 to 3 - hello. I think ...there is an emotive coefficient that has been willfully unaccounted for by the weather gods as of late (hahaha), and until that is fulfilled, there is going to be these electron tunneling microscopic analysis of every tedious detail imaginable. for which to ....kind of assert a sort of blame thing, in a way. Interesting. Not a sociologist by any stretch, but when the snows are flying, and the charts are alive for the next in the series, and the pattern over the extended is rife with other potentials, and it seems we can do no storm-wrong ... the gaiety and good will toward others swells over the top, and there is this utter tsunamis of agreement about every concept of reality under the sun - or should I say, snowing clouds. But this winter? ... Heh, this ain't one of those times, to put it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Perfect debate for this winter - coating - 1", 1"-3", etc. The only reason why a 1" amount stands out so much or is even so relevant in the discussion is because that seems to become the norm this season. Trying to figure out a way where 1" of snow vs. a coating fits into a forcast is truly lol worthy right now as many of us are just hoping for that - a 1" snow event. ...pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 well like will said he sees the counter argument. But feels it is weak. I agree , there is a counter argument and it does have some points , but they dont get close to outdoing the "points for". I think in eduggs head the only just points for are so mets can sit back and say on a recliner drinkin beers and say "meh 1-3" let's drink some beers" but there are times when 1-2 would be forecast and like will said when uncertainty wrt to banding and ratio's warrants a wider range it's 1-3. Now eduggs may DEF have a point debating kevin who is a good poster but is more apt to give a wide range just so he can move from a point Of upgrading slightly or downgrading slightly smoothly and have the luxury of somehow saying a dusting (which may not have fallen for more than 30% is a "AWT" or on other hand a 4.5 storm is an "AWT" based on an itial 1-3 or 1-4 forecast. but even kevin has his points when doing this i would say. lol i'm done with this sorry . hopefully euro shows some nice 1-5 snowfall wed and fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 In any case, it won't be a 1-3" event... Coating to 0.49" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I obviously disagree. Like you say, it's imprecise. And most in the public consciously or unconsciously remember the higher number of a range. That's why the relative magnitude of the numbers is important. 3" is - as most anyone can calculate - three times larger than 1". If the uncertainty dictates, should 2-6 be used, or 3-9? I think the 1-3 thing is a very old fashioned tradition, a hold-over from the model guessing era when nobody really knew exactly what was coming. Yes it is common, but I think it has a very low public utility. Even if we don't know what's coming (often the case), if we want to try to forecast snowfall accumulations, I think we should avoid ranges that are statistically, practically, and perceptively imprecise. As to the uncertainty issue, I agree with you here. I'm all for meteorologists openly expressing uncertainty about storms, snowfall, and impacts. But I still don't think the way to express that is with a really wide magnitude range (especially on the low end of the scale). Busting by one inch with a 1-3 forecast could mean nothing or 4", which is borderline nonsensical. I would recommend picking a tight range (2-3, 8-14, heck even 10-20 is more acceptable than 1-3) , a single number with an error bar (like scientists do), or descriptive terms like dusting, coasting, nuissance, light, couple inches, moderate, significant, heavy etc... or even more creative terms. Huh? Really? So there's a chance that we could get .05" to .15" of precip, and it's rather unclear at this point. What should be forecasted, and why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro? -skisheep dry... only .05" - .1" of liquid for the SW half of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This 1-3 or 4 inch event is going to be bigger than the Friday deal how did your 1-3" call for yesterday work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 forky any enhancement at all for ema on euro qpf fields on this. i.e .1 -.25 or same as sw ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 forky any enhancement at all for ema on euro qpf fields on this. i.e .1 -.25 or same as sw ct. Euro is pretty dry...I don't see any enhancement for E areas on it. Put the EC down for C-1" camp. 1" is stretching it on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro is pretty much a non event on weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 dry... only .05" - .1" of liquid for the SW half of CT so .75-1.5" with 15-1", not great, but this winter that's a win. An inch would freshen up the landscape, and give a wintery feel to the area. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nice to see everything coming on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 so .75-1.5" with 15-1", not great, but this winter that's a win. An inch would freshen up the landscape, and give a wintery feel to the area. -skisheep ski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nice to see everything coming on board I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nice to see everything coming on board The Titanic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I honestly wouldn't be shocked if some people saw 2" of snow out of this, but I wouldn't forecast that right now. Euro hasn't nailed the qpf on all these clippers either. But it has at least partial support from the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 3-4 in the mtns. Maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 coventry very sell said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z nam meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 ski No, trying to be optimistic and make the best out of the bad situation that has been this winter. An inch is a realistic goal for SW CT for these two systems, and, since an inch is all i'm going to get, why not make the most of it instead of complaining because it's not more. And don't tell me an inch is unrealistic for Stamford between these two clippers, all models have me close to .1 QPF, and 10/15-1 ratios are not unrealistic. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z nam meh.. tossing it. it's all coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hopefully the nam has the right idea, if so looks like a snowy (although light) 48 hours around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 look how cold that air is NW of our wed clipper. -35C on many models in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 BTV's forecast accumulations at this point... 1-2" over most of VT with Mansfield/Spine area up to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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