pawatch Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So let me get this straight....The Nam is west & GFS is east. Anything we get will add to our yearly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NE crowd is ready to tar and feather Red Taggers who are pointing out reduction in qpf on new NAM in some areas. Not to worry. They can all turn on TWC and watch Armageddon. NEMONEMONEMONEMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lolz massive dryslot in pa on nam. not too worried have lots of work to get done so less distraction. im hoping zach gets some thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Driving the Prius to hunt valley/cockeysville, instead of the escape. We'll probably get slammed for that reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM did shift more east still looks like .25 in MDT. but it is now casting time any snow out of this would be I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One of my other sources pointed out that the pressure from initialization is wrong with the 12Z NAM which would affect the track and precp field. I am not sure how true this is but could explain the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Most of us are going to be relying on precip from the northern stream energy before it transfers to the strengthening coastal low.... not a good sign imo especially with the line of showers entering western pa as mostly rain... that northern stream energy looks to be behind of where we would need it to be to interact with the coastal low earlier... as a result the precip shield for the coastal low is not expanding as far west as we would like to see and resulting in the lower qpf... its not so much a dryslot as it is just the drier gap in between two systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 IT'S SO WEST IT'S EAST NOW!! STORM CANCEL YOU GUYS!!!!!! BUT THE NAM IS GARBAGE BECAUSE IT DOESNT HAVE A HECS FOR MY AREA GUYS!!!!!!!!! IF IT DOESNT SHOW SNOW UP TO THE OLD MAIN BELLTOWER THEN TOSS IT!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Most of us are going to be relying on precip from the northern stream energy before it transfers to the strengthening coastal low.... not a good sign imo especially with the line of showers entering western pa as mostly rain... that northern stream energy looks to be behind of where we would need it to be to interact with the coastal low earlier... as a result the precip shield for the coastal low is not expanding as far west as we would like to see and resulting in the lower qpf... its not so much a dryslot as it is just the drier gap in between two systems Good points. I can't tell what is falling on traffic cams around Dubois because of the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CRAZY unexpected snow band forming right on top of State College! Must have 2-3"/wk rates easily!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 warnings should probably go away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CRAZY unexpected snow band forming right on top of State College! Must have 2-3"/wk rates easily!! Screen Shot 2013-02-08 at 10.10.48 AM.png Light snow grains in Bellefonte now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Fog in southern York has reduced vis to between 1/4 and 1/2 mile in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light snow grains in Bellefonte now. Same here, the pathetic frozen mud that houses the tree along the sidewalk here on the 200 block of West Beaver Ave is being dusted. I'll keep you all posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 warnings should probably go away lol. winter storm warning was cancelled for McKean, Potter, Warren counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure why but they bumped IMBY forecast to 1-3 today, 1-2 tonight. Before it was 1-2 today, 1 tonight. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NWS CTP new map. Huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS stays consistent for this area and State College up Lebanon County to 3-4".... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&cycle=12&fhr=012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys, let's not be negative quite yet. The snow we'll get isn't even on radar yet because it'll come off the closing phase east this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS now has higher QPF for MDT than the NAM... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's got to be coming down at the rate of 0.1"/hour right now! NAM is going to BUST BIG guys!!! Blizzard!!!! NEMO!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys, let's not be negative quite yet. The snow we'll get isn't even on radar yet because it'll come off the closing phase east this evening. Yeah, I'm not for our area. I think the NWS might have changed their forecast for us because we are definitely all snow right now, nice flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS now has higher QPF for MDT than the NAM... lol Nice. It's got to be coming down at the rate of 0.1"/hour right now! NAM is going to BUST BIG guys!!! Blizzard!!!! NEMO!!!!!!!!!!! I was actually expecting sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in here. Based off satellite, upper air / surface obs and radar everything appears to be going as planned. Those worrying about dramatic shifts and crazy temperature profiles, etc. should take a step away from the computer for a moment and realize three things: Central PA was never in the bulls eye for this storm, any snow we get is bonus. Radar shows precipitation starting to build in Central PA. While it's light, this is the first signal of the two storm combining. The real business doesn't get going until after 3:00pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in here. Based off satellite, upper air / surface obs and radar everything appears to be going as planned. Those worrying about dramatic shifts and crazy temperature profiles, etc. should take a step away from the computer for a moment and realize three things: Central PA was never in the bulls eye for this storm, any snow we get is bonus. Radar shows precipitation starting to build in Central PA. While it's light, this is the first signal of the two storm combining. The real business doesn't get going until after 3:00pm today. You can take your voice of reason and F off, mr.! Just kidding, as always you do a great job of setting proper expectations. Come back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in here. Based off satellite, upper air / surface obs and radar everything appears to be going as planned. Those worrying about dramatic shifts and crazy temperature profiles, etc. should take a step away from the computer for a moment and realize three things: Central PA was never in the bulls eye for this storm, any snow we get is bonus. Radar shows precipitation starting to build in Central PA. While it's light, this is the first signal of the two storm combining. The real business doesn't get going until after 3:00pm today. Thanks for the info. Appreciate it. My game is always can I reach or best normal. I'll take any snow toward that goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You can take your voice of reason and F off, mr.! Just kidding, as always you do a great job of setting proper expectations. Come back! I'm headed deeper into Maryland (Montgomery County) within the next 3 months probably No more snow for me ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Heh, maybe you can try settling the NYC'ers Joe. In seriousness - all snow atm however light it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe it's just my eyes (Bloodshot. Stayed up late. ugh) but the radar makes it seem as if Eastern PA could get screwed royally here. Phasing happening late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe it's just my eyes (Bloodshot. Stayed up late. ugh) but the radar makes it seem as if Eastern PA could get screwed royally here. Phasing happening late? The storm is moving east due to the western storm moving in from the west. it's basically squishing it. Once the phase happens later things will change. Timing of the phase will be huge. If the phase is late all the heavy precipitation falls in the ocean or on the coast. Due to the fact the storm will slide more to the east until it phases. This is critical for NYC southward. So there might be a spike in weenie suicide rates later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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