JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM continually overestimates qpf, and isn't it really poor at handling phases? I've seen forecasters on the board note that if the NAM and the Euro agree on something it's usually a strong signal. Although generally inside 48 hours the Euro and the SREFs are best. Am curious to see the SREFs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't see this very often: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The new NAM isn't really producing anything mind blowing in our neck of the woods, very similar QPF wise to the 12 and 18z runs. Half inch line runs from like York-MDT-IPT with pretty much everyone west of that line seeing the 0.25-0.50. Of course more east of that line. It'll be interesting to see if this storm comes close to some of the totals that are being printed out in the areas that look to get the brunt of this storm... good lord. Snowfall in the central counties is going to primarily hinge on the precip area out west associated with the northern branch system with the best potential rates being when the deformation axis swings through. The JST/AOO/UNV corridor could see a high impact several hour period of heavy snow that dumps a few inches and pushes east. Locations like IPT and MDT and esp east/northeast of these locations stand to see more consolidation of the precip shield ahead of this feature and have the shield linger as the storm winds up. Things i'll be watching are the evolution of the precip shield with the southern stream system and how far west that makes it on its own as well as if we can get precip to fill in between the phasing systems earlier than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol good advice to cut those in more than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs look good.How was it QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 had us over .5 to .75...had .5 back to centre county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Am curious to see the SREFs now. LNS: 5" THV: 3" HAR: 4" RDG: 7" IPT: 5" ABE: 9" PNE: 8" PSB: 4" JST: 4" LBE: 3" AVP: 9" 1 SREF model (MBN1) predicts 24" for LNS, 34" for RDG and 40" for PTW Edit: above numbers include all outliers. Tossing the MBN1 plot will lower the above totals. Side note: I made the mistake of opening the MA subforum thread on this event. Don't make the same mistake. If 1 more storm goes north of them, I'm pretty sure there will be slitting of wrists. #firstworldproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LNS: 5" THV: 3" HAR: 4" RDG: 7" IPT: 5" ABE: 9" PNE: 8" PSB: 4" JST: 4" LBE: 3" AVP: 9" 1 SREF model (MBN1) predicts 24" for LNS, 34" for RDG and 40" for PTW Side note: I made the mistake of opening the MA subforum thread on this event. Don't make the same mistake. If 1 more storm goes north of them, I'm pretty sure there will be slitting of wrists. #firstworldproblems Lol Those SREF plume viewers give you the ability to deselect individual members so if you have extreme outliers, you can get rid of that and get a much better idea of the mean of the spread. For instance PTW has that member printing 40" when all other members are between 1 and 15". The mean with the 40 included is about 9 inches.. but with that eliminated its roughly 6 or so. We can always hope for that extreme outlier to come true though haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 The U.S. hockey team did it...we can too! Do you believe in [a] miracle [snowstorm]!? YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol Those SREF plume viewers give you the ability to deselect individual members so if you have extreme outliers, you can get rid of that and get a much better idea of the mean of the spread. For instance PTW has that member printing 40" when all other members are between 1 and 15". The mean with the 40 included is about 9 inches.. but with that eliminated its roughly 6 or so. We can always hope for that extreme outlier to come true though haha. lol yeah i know, I just posted raw data. Obviously that outlier needs tossed, and there are a few that are saying 0" that could probably be tossed too. I included the outliers in the estimates I posted. I should have stated such when I originally posted those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Latest CTP guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Some snippets of the high res 4km nam reflectivity, hours 19-20-21. Still waiting for after that. C-PA looks decent, nice band sets up right over UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like I made a good choice heading to Sullivan Co. hopefully this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol Nam why you must be all Nam and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just booked my hotel in Torrington, CT. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just arrived at my cabin in Tioga county and am ever so thankful to have my iPhone to get these exciting updates. I hope the gfs and kuro continue the trends as our snowmobiles want to play tomorrow. I will send pics of what we are getting as well be in northern tioga and potter riding around. While the NAM qpf needs to be cut in half and it still shows a nice event. Here's to the rest of tonight's runs. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LOL @ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is buzzkillIt's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just booked my hotel in Torrington, CT. Enjoy. keep is updated and be safe. and dont forget about pics and video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DT's first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is buzzkill Hey NYC/Philly, look, the 0Z GFS just rolled in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Joe bastardi's snow map https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/299687866836058112/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the 0z GFS verifies (which it won't because it's a load of shyte) - the NYC thread would be just epic to read. Oh, and it still gives them almost a foot of snow...babies. They're having weenie suicides over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per Martin in PHL thread: Where the NAM had 13" snow (and 3+" QPF) the GFS has 3" snow (and less than 1" QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the 0z GFS verifies (which it won't because it's a load of shyte) - the NYC thread would be just epic to read. Oh, and it still gives them almost a foot of snow...babies. They're having weenie suicides over it. No doubt. Very ugly. The Euro has been consistent. I'd be surprised if it caved to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 anyone kno qpf outputs for gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per Martin in PHL thread: Where the NAM had 13" snow (and 3+" QPF) the GFS has 3" snow (and less than 1" QPF). so nam....3+ QPF , 1+ snow. Gfs...barely 1 inch qpf maybe half snow? within 24 hours of event this is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 to me it still looks like GFS is late with the phasing compared to NAM, EURO, etc... hence why it stays further east and less QPF across PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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