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Jan 25th Winter Weather Observations


WilkesboroDude

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That sucks dude. Good luck. Hope it doesn't get that bad for you...but hey you got the booze to hold you over.

Monitoring a radar trend coming down from Marion to Landrum. Looks lite built seems to be building. All the HIRES NAM model seem to want to kill this type as it rides down into the southern lee areas.

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Monitoring a radar trend coming down from Marion to Landrum. Looks lite built seems to be building. All the HIRES NAM model seem to want to kill this type as it rides down into the southern lee areas.

 

It'll be interesting to see what that brings to you. Perhaps a little bit of snow in the heavier band?

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It'll be interesting to see what that brings to you. Perhaps a little bit of snow in the heavier band?

Brief snow mixed in but the returns are not that heavy. More of a light fr sleet event now.. 

Since I am off work today (no school) it sucks working on grad school homework and trying to track the weather..

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I've had two periods of light sleet/freezing rain mix. Nothing going on at the moment but there is a Light coating on cars and exposed surfaces. Temp is 28 with a dp of 14.

 

Little bit surprised it's reaching the surface given how high ceilings are, dry air, and very light returns that came through. A much more impressive patch, relatively speaking, is heading this way from the northwest. I expect mainly freezing rain with this but of course some sleet is possible.

 

It will be interesting to see how the temps behave down this way today given what appears to be only light amounts of precip. Huge differences in temps between the gfs/nam. Gfs is showing a temp of 30 here at 18z while the nam is showing 39. In fact, it has above freezing temps across virtually all of ne ga.  It also has temps above freezing in anderson and even gsp. Personally I find that highly suspect given the type of airmass involved and thick cloud cover. The nam might be seeing some breaks, I don't know. Certainly not apparent though on visible imagery at the moment.

 

Either way, It's going to be a matter of how long we can hold on to freezing temps. The precip over west central tn seems to be moving se. IF it holds together and we remain below freezing we might squeeze out a tenth here and maybe even 0.15 to 0.25 over the far north.  But I have never had good luck here with precip moving southeast due to downslope. Plus by the time it gets here temps might be too warm.

 

If however enough precip falls into the incredibly cold air over western nc, wouldn't be surprised to see a meso high locking in the cold. Usually that translates to the wedge locking in down into the upstate and ne ga...providing ne to east winds. But just not sure there will be enough precip there to cause it since models insist on a rain shadow effect there. However, Considering the precip hasn't had much problems making it over the mountains and into the foothills though and with a decent amount of precip over tn..it's hard to believe it just breaks up like the models are showing. 

 

NC already has precip, and it seems the nam might bust there with the gfs much more in line with what will happen. Given the very cold temps there, certainly enough to cause some travel problems there. If this was at night, it would a lot worse with regards to the roads/bridges.

 

 

What waste of such a strong wedge here. Though. If we had a lot of precip over us and the western carolinas, no doubt we stay subfreezing with the formation of that meso high and have a big ice event but alas just not enough precip to warrant much more than a curiosity.

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