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The jan 32 -Feb 0 storm thread


Ji

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This is the first threat period (first week of Feb.) that I have really been interested in so far this winter.  The mjo propagation, changing GLAAM, and straosphere state look to align favorably.  The Euro threat may actually have legs (although the Euro gave 20 inches of snow to Boston earlier this week and promptly took it back).  There may be suppression concerns during that time frame(seems to be an ongoing theme this winter), but I'm definitely interested---I'll even drive the bus. :snowing:

 

MDstorm

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here's day 7 off the Euro site; the storm comes day 7.75

the concern I have is that it's a southern stream vort and you know what happened to us last time, but this one is much stronger and if it come that far north this time, we will be happy

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013012500!!/

 

EDIT: oh yeah, better interaction with northern stream that helps, though not a total phase

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Yeah there is. We've seen that happen for a few years now.  If I were in the Carolinas, I would be pumped over how this is setting up in the 10-day. 

 

Pumped over a 10 day?  The way the euro performed with this storm, I'd be nervous if I were in the sweet spot now.  Ignore the GFS at your own risk.  It's been pretty good.  Having said that, I have no idea what either one show.  I'm exhausted from the long range threats.

 

BTW, I thought this was coming on Jan 33. ????????????

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Pumped over a 10 day?  The way the euro performed with this storm, I'd be nervous if I were in the sweet spot now.  Ignore the GFS at your own risk.  It's been pretty good.  Having said that, I have no idea what either one show.  I'm exhausted from the long range threats.

 

BTW, I thought this was coming on Jan 33. ????????????

 

Pumped in the Carolinas? Sure! They are the new snow capital of the eastern seaboard...it just wants to snow there.

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The ens mean pattern for feb1-7 is a pretty good one for having a window for snow chances.  I don't know about the JI storm but do like the week as giving us chances. 

 

Wes, this is the most bullish you've been all year. I know you aren't saying snow. Just a better chance. And I agree. The cold reload looks much better for us in the mid latitudes and NE as well. I have a feeling the nao is going to help this time. There are hints being dropped. Even the weaker solutions put the area of higher heights on the west side of gl. Long ways to go but it's do or die time for the next 4 weeks. I'm tired of dying. 

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