Amped Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I am optimistic until models come on board. Then i will be ultra skeptical, not a plan more of an observation of what i typically do. 2006 maybe a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I am optimistic until models come on board. Then i will be ultra skeptical, not a plan more of an observation of what i typically do. 2006 maybe a good analog. I'll take that in a heartbeat as long as it doesn't melt away the next minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Of course a certain bombastic met from richmond is honking like whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I have been waiting to see one of 2 things for a while, either the wavelengths shorten allowing the northern stream to dig more, or the STJ to get a little more active. Still no sign of number one happening, but finally there are hints that the STJ may be making a bit a noise into Feb. This is supported by the MJO as we get towards phase 1 this is more supporting of southern wave activity. Hopefully we can get at least a 10 days window for some real winter in early Feb. At least we will not have to go through another "lets wait for the pattern reload" crap because this is realistically our last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I have been waiting to see one of 2 things for a while, either the wavelengths shorten allowing the northern stream to dig more, or the STJ to get a little more active. Still no sign of number one happening, but finally there are hints that the STJ may be making a bit a noise into Feb. This is supported by the MJO as we get towards phase 1 this is more supporting of southern wave activity. Hopefully we can get at least a 10 days window for some real winter in early Feb. At least we will not have to go through another "lets wait for the pattern reload" crap because this is realistically our last chance. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What have you had so far that is historic? I'd imagine they are referring to Christmas '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Why? summer is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 EURO/GFS still worlds apart. EURO holds the energy back in the southwest and later ejects which eventually comes the MECS day 7-9, it while the GFS just phases the two together so there is no 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 the GFS is likely right...i think the euro bias of holding the SW too long and then ejecting it is causing the MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS new dr no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS new dr no seriously...it used to show a HECS once or twice a day at 384. now we are lucky if it shows one snowstorm a week on all its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Wrong thread. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Why? because we are talking about the period from about Feb 1-15th. After that once the cold relaxes it would be at least a week before we would get a reload and then we are into March. Look at climo over the last 30 years for March in DC and you have your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 because we are talking about the period from about Feb 1-15th. After that once the cold relaxes it would be at least a week before we would get a reload and then we are into March. Look at climo over the last 30 years for March in DC and you have your answer. if we time a return perfectly and get a perfect setup we might get snow through about feb 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 euro no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 euro no storm I am shocked - SHOCKED! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is the Euro generally dry througout for us? I still maintain that our biggest issue post-Sandy has been and continues to be how dry it has been in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 if we time a return perfectly and get a perfect setup we might get snow through about feb 31 If we get a fast reload I suppose its possible to get one last hail mary the last few days of Feb and the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Screw this, my money is on the March 32nd storm...lock it up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Is the Euro generally dry througout for us? I still maintain that our biggest issue post-Sandy has been and continues to be how dry it has been in general. the run sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 the run sucks Thanks. Don't have access to it from where I am currently...does it suck because we remain dry or does it suck that it finally gets wet and we are too warm? At some point, some moisture of note would be nice...just to see that we can still do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't think anyone was banking on some beautiful setup this year. The low that the euro was showing is a nino look for all intents. And IF it happened it could drop a foot up and down the coast. I think chasing that setup is futile this year. What we do have on the table is various amplified looks that could allow something to dive down further west than these 2 last cheezy events and pick up some gulf moisture. Thats kinda what I'm banking on. A ns vort that taps the gulf. Maybe 2 of them. A couple nice 3-5 / 4-8 events would prob be the best case scenario. GFS is close enough in the lr. I know I keep saying this but it's true. SW features will not be picked up well at long leads anytime soon (or at all this winter). Let's just get the ec trough re-established and see what can drop into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The Euro has taken more lumps this year than I ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 euro is horrible. cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 euro is horrible. cold and dry It's been crap this year, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS has outperformed the ECMWF model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This event bears serious watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Quite a bit of difference on guidance, even run-to-run, on the evolution of day 4-5. I just don't buy the GFS (specifically 18Z GFS) of phasing things up and sending a blizzard through the plains. We've seen the last week or two the cold overperforming and scrunching things back south as it gets into the 2-3 day range. We dont want a full phase to occur- that will lead to PV-ogenesis in Canada and result in nothing but cold and dry over the east. If the cold overperforms and things get stretched out and something is left behind in the SW, there is a pretty good chance of a threat around here next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Starting an early thread always works some magic, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Starting an early thread always works some magic, huh? Maybe it's just the pattern:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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