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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

GFS 8-14 brings the entire motherlode into the USA.

 

But do you buy it?  The serious cold around the 18-20 could be model magic.    I do like the idea of a major, major storm between the 21-23 that does finally dump the cold.  Not sure about it being all that chilly before hand...let's see what the ensembles/euro show.  1 more week left in the period?

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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

If you guys follow Qvector's posts, the motherload on the 0z gfs comes in during the time frame he has pinned for an arctic outbreak. So I will stand by his expert advice and say there is growing support for something like what the 0z gfs is showing to occur within the next 15 days. Just keep the faith guys. This thread has definitely been filled with more debbie downers lately. Let's change that tomorrow please.

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Max

Max

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Posted

Looks like my call for winter's return on January 18th was spot on. Thoughs?

Well I would have to say the 15th because that is when we turn colder and stay colder, but that is just semantics so you were pretty much right on the money.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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But he was very confident about the 23-27 time frame.

Like coastalwx said we should probably wait until Sunday.

The period around the 23 looks good for a big storm and cold dump. That's a long ways away, lets hope we get into some snow before then.

We need a big storm in the mix. Was hoping for one pre 22-25th.

Max it's 1/12, we may be looking at another week before a snow threat. It'd just be nice to see something break favorably in the shorter term whether it be the Tuesday wave or Thursday. We've all had 50" of 8-15 day snow and cold

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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the colder more "seasonable" air is coming mon nite.  i dont' care if i still ave a +2.5 or not, it's gonna be seasonable and i'm happy that is not gonna be delayed further. looks like fri-sat prob bring in a period of -12-17c 850's.  I think the motherload may be on the way a week later. So this almost looks like a "step down" cold period.  I mean bottom line it's gonna get cold and it looks like it will be cold for a while (2 weeks at least) .  we may relax a bit after next weekend b4 the big chill,  but there will be plenty of cold air around this time and i think we just need to get some SW's in the area. The pattern looks to change pretty drastically for us IMO and i dont see any mild ups in the extended either. lets get some storms in the area and hope the exteneded cold pattern holds.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

the colder more "seasonable" air is coming mon nite. i dont' care if i still ave a +2.5 or not, it's gonna be seasonable and i'm happy that is not gonna be delayed further. looks like fri-sat prob bring in a period of -12-17c 850's. I think the motherload may be on the way a week later. So this almost looks like a "step down" cold period. I mean bottom line it's gonna get cold and it looks like it will be cold for a while (2 weeks at least) . we may relax a bit after next weekend b4 the big chill, but there will be plenty of cold air around this time and i think we just need to get some SW's in the area. The pattern looks to change pretty drastically for us IMO and i dont see any mild ups in the extended either. lets get some storms in the area and hope the exteneded cold pattern holds.

Timing still seems up in the air but that's tied to models developing different lows. Gradual cool down by Tuesday. More pronounced later Thursday into Friday maybe with snow? If we get a snow event it's real cold mlk, no Thursday storm a gradual step down until the big daddy 22-24??

I do think we will see quick shifts from the coldest to moderation --> storm threat --> cold shot thru the end of the month. In between seasonable?

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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Timing still seems up in the air but that's tied to models developing different lows. Gradual cool down by Tuesday. More pronounced later Thursday into Friday maybe with snow? If we get a snow event it's real cold mlk, no Thursday storm a gradual step down until the big daddy 22-24??

I do think we will see quick shifts from the coldest to moderation --> storm threat --> cold shot thru the end of the month. In between seasonable?

 

Just give me a storm that tracks favorably for 'some' snow.  Going three weeks w/o tracking anything in the middle of winter is excruciating.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The colder air later next week defitnely got tempered which is the theme as of late. It's not surprising with the propensity of a -pna. Still should wait until Sunday to really know how this shakes out, but the longer term looks pretty good. I still don't know how long the NAO and Pacific stay favorable as models sort of weaken ridging in both places

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'm putting in a pellet stove this year. Relying 100% on oil is killing me. Next winter will be a cold one too since we're on the 10 year repeating pattern.

 

We are heating primarily with two wood stoves with oil primairly relegated for hot water.  The pellet's probably a nice option because the stoves require a lot of attention and the mixed blessing of lots of treks through the snow to replenish the wood supply.

 

Also, if you're in the position having your own wood supply to cut, you've got an activity that will keep you occupied throughout the warm and cool seasons being focused on the upcoming cold season (as well as the one beyond).

 

Just had another big roof slide.  I'm going to go on a limb and say that perhaps my roof is cleared.  Opportunity to inspect how many slates have come down, ftl

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