Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Damage In Tolland]

I said 1-3 or 2-4 and again you don't look at qpf fir this lol,

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Have not had a 6" snowfall in years Steve, so yeah, it would be big.

Reality is, this wave for Tuesday is meh. T-1 for most. Airmass will be marginal.

We try to avoid reality here whenever possible.

I thought damaging ice to snow was the biggest threat for Tuesday? Or was that the bad quotes in the upgrade again?

[CoastalWx]

People should not expect an epic pattern....this is not a forecasted epic pattern. Lets keep expectations in check. If they happen to be epic..than weenies out for all of us..but I get the feeling people are setting the bar too high. This pattern is more for potential snow chances.

[Ginx snewx]

I said 1-3 or 2-4 and again you don't look at qpf fir this lol,

Let it go dude. To them 1-3 is a big snowstorm

[dryslot]

I said 1-3 or 2-4 and again you don't look at qpf fir this lol,

 

 

Those totals would be reasonable verbatim

[Ginx snewx]

People should not expect an epic pattern....this is not a forecasted epic pattern. Lets keep expectations in check. If they happen to be epic..than weenies out for all of us..but I get the feeling people are setting the bar too high. This pattern is more for potential snow chances.

Yea it potentially is, could be 2-3 weeks before it produces a lot of snow but it is potentially a very high expectation pattern

[dryslot]

People should not expect an epic pattern....this is not a forecasted epic pattern. Lets keep expectations in check. If they happen to be epic..than weenies out for all of us..but I get the feeling people are setting the bar too high. This pattern is more for potential snow chances.

 

 

Stay the course

[CoastalWx]

Yea it is

 

 

Disagree. That doesn't mean it can't be a big producer. Jan 2005 was and that looked crappy at first, but this is not an epic pattern as progged.

[Baroclinic Zone]

94 is rolling through the door scooter, starting tuesday. la epic!

from where i stand, i see nothing noteworthy for snowlovers on the horizon. aka, next 7 days or so. pattern upcoming looks cold and boring.

[CoastalWx]

It's a pretty good pattern don't get me wrong. But epic? Not right now.

[dryslot]

94 is rolling through the door scooter, starting tuesday. la epic!

from where i stand, i see nothing noteworthy for snowlovers on the horizon. aka, next 7 days or so. pattern upcoming looks cold and boring.

 

 

Agree, Not much excitement here unless you like cold and dry conditions

[Ginx snewx]

94 is rolling through the door scooter, starting tuesday. la epic!

from where i stand, i see nothing noteworthy for snowlovers on the horizon. aka, next 7 days or so. pattern upcoming looks cold and boring.

See ya in a week.

[Ginx snewx]

Agree, Not much excitement here unless you like cold and dry conditions

You not so much, come on down

[CoastalWx]

Well on the other hand, I don't think it's cold and dry either. We discussed why yesterday.

[dryslot]

Well on the other hand, I don't think it's cold and dry either. We discussed why yesterday.

 

 

You would have a better shot then up here

[CoastalWx]

You would have a better shot then up here

 

I noticed some of the clippers favored NNE. This is a pattern where clippers or high plains low pressure come flying out of nowhere and show up on the models within 5 days or so. It's just way too early to say cold and dry or meh cold and snow. Just keep things realistic...I feel like people are setting the bar a bit too high..obviously not you.

[N. OF PIKE]

Scooter is this a pattern where n stream shortwaves will be flying thru and prob not modeled well more than 3 days out or not so much? Edit Lol just read above post

[Ginx snewx]

Yea Bob 1994 is rolling in the door Boston snows Jan Feb 1994 33.7 36.2

[dryslot]

I noticed some of the clippers favored NNE. This is a pattern where clippers or high plains low pressure come flying out of nowhere and show up on the models within 5 days or so. It's just way too early to say cold and dry or meh cold and snow. Just keep things realistic...I feel like people are setting the bar a bit too high..obviously not you.

 

 

Yeah, I see pieces of vorticity coming thru in the northern stream up here, We may cash on some of these, But i think the period after the 18th has some of those better chances as long as the PV does not come to far south

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Stay the course

 

Of course

 

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, I see pieces of vorticity coming thru in the northern stream up here, We may cash on some of these, But i think the period after the 18th has some of those better chances as long as the PV does not come to far south

absolutely and I set my bar even higher for PF after looking at stuff all morning , 3 feet in two weeks. Fook the caution flags, I lose I lose, who cares. Science does have some merit in my forecast, not like I am pulling it out of my arse. Good luck to all.

[CoastalWx]

absolutely and I set my bar even higher for PF after looking at stuff all morning , 3 feet in two weeks. Fook the caution flags, I lose I lose, who cares. Science does have some merit in my forecast, not like I am pulling it out of my arse. Good luck to all.

 

   

[OSUmetstud]

The pattern doesn't scream cold and dry to me.  As Will mentioned, the massive AK ridge would allow for some clippers to move south of the PV and potentially become Miller Bs.  One potential problem (which is just about true is any pattern) is that the flow is fast.  This may not allow things to phase or amplify easily.  If we start to decrease the flow across the CONUS...and the SE ridge is beat down a bit....then the pattern could become epic.

[weathafella]

Fighting and biting (mild) this morning arnd here...lol.

[N. OF PIKE]

Hopefully the lakes ice over nicely after sunday/mon am. Wxmanmitch may be the sne winner next ten days, if I was a betting man. Not sure what the total will be 3" or 23" but I like his local

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Fighting and biting (mild) this morning arnd here...lol.

 

This is the worst torch ever.   40s and cloudy.   Nighttime departures boosting the bottom line number.  Give me 50s and sun, or snow and cold. 

[Ginx snewx]

 

Yep. and why the fook not, you were just a young turd in 94, sh it flew at us out of no where. I understand how you need to be in your discussions. I threw my caution flags away for the next month. Happy Happy Happy everybody happy.

[dryslot]

Fighting and biting (mild) this morning arnd here...lol.

 

 

Still have 6" at the stake here but slowly losing the battle.........

[J.Spin]

Geezus cry me a friggin big river LOL. Dude they have been getting smoked. Add my two feet in two weeks in and he still is smoking climo. .before the highest climo period of the year.

 

In reality it would probably take more than 24” of snowfall to have the snowpack go up 24” in depth as shown in your diagram, but I’m with you, Mt. Mansfield doesn’t typically go that long without decent shots of snow.  Yesterday I posted a reply in the NNE thread and pointed out all the clippers and such that were modeled on the ECMWF and GFS at that time.  Even if the current runs aren’t as robust in terms of precipitation, that could easily just be the ups and downs of the modeling.

[dryslot]

Yep. and why the fook not, you were just a young turd in 94, sh it flew at us out of no where. I understand how you need to be in your discussions. I threw my caution flags away for the next month. Happy Happy Happy everybody happy.

 

 

Me love clippers, I have benefited more then once when they "Bomb" in the GOM, More so DE Maine if they get going to late