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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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This is going to be one of those patterns where weenies probably complain for a week until the whole PV reshuffles after next weekend. It's not very favorable for snow as modeled until that reshuffle occurs....that hasn't changed. This next week to 9 days or so may favor NNE.

Wait two posts ago you said watch the second wave.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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ITs not as hard as some are making it out to be WRT arctic outbreaks....look at the EPO region on the OP GFS at D5...then look again at D9....you understand why it unleashes the hounds in the latter setup.

 

Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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I am very very happy the pV is not sitting over us with so much confluence it meat grinds everything. I do not know what Nate wants but give me 28 degrees and snow. I'm good, happy happy happy

all i ask for is this.

call me a skeptic, call me a realist, i just don't see much snow on the horizon.

7 days, i'll be in a better frame.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Mild to a threat Wed/Thursday, cool/cold with some moderation, then a bigger threat in the days after MLK before what should be a major outbreak of cold.  We do need the post MLK storm to do its thing to really help everything along.

 

Hard to believe we're talking ANOTHER 9-10 days for the real best stuff, but that looks probably and in reality is within the 18th +/- a few days that many were talking about anyway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. 

 

 

I still think well get clipped next week by some arctic air, but that was never forecast to be very far south...hopefully epople remember that. Even when the crazy Euro run came out...we all said its unlikely that would verify, but some people want to cling to the coldest solution over a 7 days period and then yell bust when it doesn't happen.

 

 

I think we'll have a couple snow threats in the next 8 days too, but who knows if they will pan out. The EPO has a lot of ensemble support for getting better beyond next 5 days...so I think there is pretty high confidence (at least for me) that we do eventually get some impressive arctic air into the CONUS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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This whole week was very up in the air and never looked snowy. If we somehow grab a bit Tuesday and maybe some sort of clipper at the end of the week...then we are relatively lucky. Cold or not cold, it never looked snowy. Either the PV was too far south or too far north. That's why we harped on the ridging out west and how that can align for s/w's to amplify in the flow once that occurs.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Yeah it finally pokes a monster ridge into AK with a low moving east of us, bringing in the true arctic cold. QVectorman was also saying that it might be more the January 25-30 timeframe that produces the arctic airmass with -30C 850s in the CONUS. We sometimes have to go through a step-down for the cold to arrive, and that may be the case here. 

Yes , I said it much earlier today, patience will pay off but if we can sneak in a couple of events either clippers or overrruners all the better before the big dog arrives. Its the day to day transistion days that will create toaster baths.As a wise Old Man Winter once said, Its coming

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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Well Nate, there's your arctic outbreak at Day 11 on the GFS :lol:

 

That's what I'm talking about...brutal across the CONUS once the snowstorm departs.

 

I am a bit discouraged right now but I do think January 20th to February 10th is setting up as an excellent period of winter. Down here, we only need one good month to get a lot of snow with our vulnerability to Nor'easters and our low averages. We saw how in February 2010 and January 2011 we could get 40-50" of snow in a month. Not saying that will happen again but we look to be on the verge of a major pattern change. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I will also say this. I'm not sure if it is related to the tropics, but the overall trend in the Pacific is gradual improvement, based on the 12hr height differences I've seen over the last two days. While ensembles try to weaken the EPO..they have shown a tendency to try and keep a +PNA going.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I will also say this. I'm not sure if it is related to the tropics, but the overall trend in the Pacific is gradual improvement, based on the 12hr height differences I've seen over the last two days. While ensembles try to weaken the EPO..they have shown a tendency to try and keep a +PNA going.

Great news keep getting greater.

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educate

educate

Posted
Posted

Kevin was a master salesman for this week. A lot of weenies bought it...lol. Heck, if it happens he can sell ice to Eskimos...

yeah....and a stopped clock is right twice a day. as i believe you said jerry....bring the science to the arguments. otherwise, what are we doing here? and yeah....i know this is a banter thread....but still. and this comes from maybe the biggest weenie of all when it comes to mby, lol.

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