Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Ginx snewx]

GFS likes south coast. I'd watch that second wave.

Yea, thats close to be something pretty good for us.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Eh check the 12Z gFS

 

I did, it's the second wave that the 0z GEFS was picking up on last night (and that the GGEM was developing as Will had mentioned in earlier days).  The first one gets sheared to pieces.

There's still the inverted trough signature, which quite often at this range is the GFS' way of indicating a closer to the coast/more intense track in later runs as we discussed yesterday.  BL temps may still be marginal on this run in areas with the most QPF.

 

 

GFS likes south coast. I'd watch that second wave.

[CT Rain]

Wow! The snowpack here vaporized overnight. High dews FTL. I feel bad for the hill people clinging to every last flake on the ground.

[ORH_wxman]

That 2nd wave looks like it has some potential...as we have tried to hammer home for days...models are very poor when it comes to handling SW energy ejection.

[Ginx snewx]

I did, it's the second wave that the 0z GEFS was picking up on last night (and that the GGEM was developing as Will had mentioned in earlier days).  The first one gets sheared to pieces.

There's still the inverted trough signature, which quite often at this range is the GFS' way of indicating a closer to the coast/more intense track in later runs as we discussed yesterday.  BL temps may still be marginal on this run in areas with the most QPF.

I was talking about the second wave in the post the dude told me to shut up about.

[H2Otown_WX]

Wow! The snowpack here vaporized overnight. High dews FTL. I feel bad for the hill people clinging to every last flake on the ground.

Yeah, it's been torched here for a couple days, south-facing front yard + < 500 ft elevation = torched. Pretty cool with the LL inversion hanging on today though, only 38 @ BDL.

[Ginx snewx]

That 2nd wave looks like it has some potential...as we have tried to hammer home for days...models are very poor when it comes to handling SW energy ejection.

Coming over the top of fresh cold and getting colder, hopefully we are about to see what 94 was all about, all of a sudden threats appear 3-4 days out and get better every day. Not saying it will but memories are strong.

[weathafella]

It's a banter thread, and discussing day 7+ as science is fraught with peril, particularly given the model performances/back pedaling as of late.  It's all conjecture and partially a guessing game.  Remember the epic cold outbreak modeled for early January that turned into reasonable cold?

 

We'll have our chance Tuesday-Thursday as the GEFS hinted at last night and the GGEM/Euro have toyed with, after that who knows. 

4 degrees at my house is not seasonable cold. And you were not who I was thinking about since at least you DO take your time to back up thoughts with reason.

[Ginx snewx]

Wow! The snowpack here vaporized overnight. High dews FTL. I feel bad for the hill people clinging to every last flake on the ground.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38666-torchdown-deja-vu/

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I was talking about the second wave in the post the dude told me to shut up about.

 

Quotes still aren't working right on this end, so I thought you were talking to me.  

 

here's to hoping the 2nd wave congeals.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

4 degrees at my house is not seasonable cold. And you were not who I was thinking about since at least you DO take your time to back up thoughts with reason.

 

Again quotes FTL.  I will say that 1 or 2 days of it being cold though when the GFS had a period of wall to wall cold at similar ranges to now...(euro did too if I recall)....this could still end up being a situation where the 0c line is hanging around southern NJ.   We'd be much better off if the 2nd wave can amplify into something more significant and help usher the cold air south IMO.

[Ginx snewx]

Quotes still aren't working right on this end, so I thought you were talking to me.  

 

here's to hoping the 2nd wave congeals.

How old were you in 94? Where were you living? I have high hopes and total weenie expectations but also have enough knowledge to be scary. This would be typical. Hope it gets better.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS keeps the PV further north this run and allows a clipper threat for Friday.

[CoastalWx]

GFS keeps the PV further north this run and allows a clipper threat for Friday.

 

Yeah and a reason why people shouldn't think cold and dry because one model run doesn't show a threat verbatim. They'll show up at times unexpectedly.

[CoastalWx]

If anything, the next 8-9 days may favor NNE with these clippers IMHO.

[weathafella]

How old were you in 94? Where were you living? I have high hopes and total weenie expectations but also have enough knowledge to be scary. This would be typical. Hope it gets better.

He's old enough to have experienced it fully as a young adult I believe.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah and a reason why people shouldn't think cold and dry because one model run doesn't show a threat verbatim. They'll show up at times unexpectedly.

 

 

People should expect model swings and not use each swing as reason for a bust or a trend like Jerry said. This is a really hard pattern for models....and also, lets not forget that a lot of sutff we are looking at it like 6+ days out.

[weathafella]

As the pv rotates around there will be some good chances as it orients in a way that allows some fun. As good as modeling is, it can't pick up those little nuances beyond 3-6 days I think.

[nzucker]

GFS keeps the PV further north this run and allows a clipper threat for Friday.

 

 

GFS keeps the PV further north this run and allows a clipper threat for Friday.

Not a very cold pattern through 171 hours on the GFS. Starting to worry that this is another "false" arctic outbreak. Been years since we've seen a real one.

[CoastalWx]

If anything you want the PV south next week.

[CoastalWx]

Not a very cold pattern through 171 hours on the GFS. Starting to worry that this is another "false" arctic outbreak. Been years since we've seen a real one.

 

Yeah the big cold is gone for next week. But, if we can grab some sort of clipper..fine by me.

[nzucker]

Yeah the big cold is gone for next week. But, if we can grab some sort of clipper..fine by me.

 

 

Yeah the big cold is gone for next week. But, if we can grab some sort of clipper..fine by me.

I don't understand why the cold is encountering so much resistance with a PV over Southeast Canada and rising heights over the West and Greenland. It seemed like a slam dunk to get a cold pattern with this and now the models are showing the 0C line only down to DC. An arctic outbreak around here usually means -10C 850s down to the GA/FL border and -20C 850s around DC. That's not being shown on modeling so I'm losing patience with this "winter."

[CoastalWx]

I don't understand why the cold is encountering so much resistance with a PV over Southeast Canada and rising heights over the West and Greenland. It seemed like a slam dunk to get a cold pattern with this and now the models are showing the 0C line only down to DC. An arctic outbreak around here usually means -10C 850s down to the GA/FL border and -20C 850s around DC. That's not being shown on modeling so I'm losing patience with this "winter."

 

Very simple, SE ridge.

[weathafella]

I don't understand why the cold is encountering so much resistance with a PV over Southeast Canada and rising heights over the West and Greenland. It seemed like a slam dunk to get a cold pattern with this and now the models are showing the 0C line only down to DC. An arctic outbreak around here usually means -10C 850s down to the GA/FL border and -20C 850s around DC. That's not being shown on modeling so I'm losing patience with this "winter."

Jerusalem ftw? I think your depiction of where the 850 -10/-20 lines is right. I think it's not as extreme for your avrqge arctic outbreak.

[nzucker]

Jerusalem ftw? I think your depiction of where the 850 -10/-20 lines is right. I think it's not as extreme for your avrqge arctic outbreak.

 

 

I am thinking of heading north for MLK weekend as I need to satisfy my urge for real cold. If I go up to Quebec City will that be far enough north to get into the wintry stuff?

[ORH_wxman]

I don't understand why the cold is encountering so much resistance with a PV over Southeast Canada and rising heights over the West and Greenland. It seemed like a slam dunk to get a cold pattern with this and now the models are showing the 0C line only down to DC. An arctic outbreak around here usually means -10C 850s down to the GA/FL border and -20C 850s around DC. That's not being shown on modeling so I'm losing patience with this "winter."

 

 

That cold pattern for next week was never hsown to be very far south...even the crazy Euro run only hammered NE with the cold and maybe part of the northern M.A. It never brought the 0C line south of NC.

 

In order to get the cold further south on the east coast, you need the ridge axis in the PNA region further east. This one is setting up around or just off the coast....otherwise, you need more forcing from the Arctic regions...which looks like it may happen down the road, but not by later next week. Look at the pattern over the EPO region...its not crazy yet by middle of next week...it doesn't go nuts until next weekend.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

He's old enough to have experienced it fully as a young adult I believe.

 

Yeah and I probably had more snow than anyone that season.  This looks and has been nothing like it, JMHO.

 

People should expect model swings and not use each swing as reason for a bust or a trend like Jerry said. This is a really hard pattern for models....and also, lets not forget that a lot of sutff we are looking at it like 6+ days out.

 

I'm not, but when I see run after run of the models backing off to some degree on the cold inside of 7-8 days (with the cold always 'coming' at the truncation points....I think there's a clear trend.   I'm not offering specifics, but look at the 0z GFS 180ish vs todays run at 850 and 1000-500.  That's been pretty continuous that in genera the cold air has been staying further and further north on the GFS. 

 

Not a very cold pattern through 171 hours on the GFS. Starting to worry that this is another "false" arctic outbreak. Been years since we've seen a real one.

 

we'll see, I have hopes still for the MLK and beyond period. 

[Ginx snewx]

Jerusalem ftw? I think your depiction of where the 850 -10/-20 lines is right. I think it's not as extreme for your avrqge arctic outbreak.

I am very very happy the pV is not sitting over us with so much confluence it meat grinds everything. I do not know what Nate wants but give me 28 degrees and snow. I'm good, happy happy happy

[educate]

I was talking about the second wave in the post the dude told me to shut up about.

 

it seemed to me you were responding to blizz' comments about the potential for the first wave. and yes, the second wave has some potential as does literally any forecast you want to make outside of the 3-4  day 'cone of forecasting confidence' that exists today and will probably never really get much better due to poor I.C.'s and model physics assumptions based on those incomplete initial conditions. this first wave has almost no chance to produce what the rev says and if the outer cape and islands get some piling on for whatever reason, it doesn't change my opinion about Tuesday.

if you were talking about wave 2....my bad.

[ORH_wxman]

ITs not as hard as some are making it out to be WRT arctic outbreaks....look at the EPO region on the OP GFS at D5...then look again at D9....you understand why it unleashes the hounds in the latter setup.