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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

In reality it would probably take more than 24” of snowfall to have the snowpack go up 24” in depth as shown in your diagram, but I’m with you, Mt. Mansfield doesn’t typically go that long without decent shots of snow.  Yesterday I posted a reply in the NNE thread and pointed out all the clippers and such that were modeled on the ECMWF and GFS at that time.  Even if the current runs aren’t as robust in terms of precipitation, that could easily just be the ups and downs of the modeling.

I respect your opinion very much as you are the master of stats up there. LOL messin with PF but seriously now, lots o clippers and lots o upslope incoming.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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The pattern doesn't scream cold and dry to me.  As Will mentioned, the massive AK ridge would allow for some clippers to move south of the PV and potentially become Miller Bs.  One potential problem (which is just about true is any pattern) is that the flow is fast.  This may not allow things to phase or amplify easily.  If we start to decrease the flow across the CONUS...and the SE ridge is beat down a bit....then the pattern could become epic.

 

That ridge is key and why I'm not worried about cold and dry per se. The OVERALL pattern looks pretty good to me.

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educate

educate

Posted
Posted

Actually a very decent post based in reality, big snowstorm, no, chance at something, well yea. Maybe its not Tuesday though, maybe its the follow up wave as the Arctic air comes in. High ratio stuff, now that would be cool.

please stop....no way any model shows any chance of 3-6....please i am begging you

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Ginxy 20bucks. Also scott do we have any clearer ideas to how long this pattern may settle in for, I.e what is ur confidence in feb holding on to a good pattern

 

I think some of that is how the tropics perform. Models like the EC try to keep the pattern more favorable into February. After this winter, I think it's tough to say with any confidence how the next month shakes out. It probably will start out well and with the SSW occurring...the odds are that it at least tries to remain somewhat favorable. The Pacific still concerns me because I see a tendency to reduce ridging south of AK, but yet keep the block north of AK which is an awesome feature to have for us in SNE. So gun to weenie says February will probably be good overall, but that is not high confidence at the moment.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

There are some consistencies in the idiocy.

It's been clear that the mild wx was at most a 10 day affair for quite while and the modeling has oscillated around a cold period with the question being for how long. For the past several days, all the ensemble guidance bring the coldest air in years close by with the only question being how cold does it get in New England. The pattern also appears sustainable which by definition brings snow chances. Eg: no location in ne goes bone dry for weeks on end very often in mid winter.

Yet there are the select few that show any run to run oscillation as evidence that the pattern change is not happening or oversold. Others insist that it's last year all over again. I want to remind everyone that I had 2 weeks of snow cover from this "last year all over again" pattern before the change to cold. Weenies must see snow printed out in qpf 12 days out or it sucks.

Phil mentioned 2005 as a comparable year for such a flip and that may be a decent comparator for this year even on the timing of the change in January. The 2005 blizzard was modeled only inside 5-6 days and for sne, not until 3days out did it became clear it would hit us.

Stop posting dogsh't posts unless you can bring some science into it and keep hope alive...it's coming!

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
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There are some consistencies in the idiocy.

It's been clear that the mild wx was at most a 10 day affair for quite while and the modeling has oscillated around a cold period with the question being for how long. For the past several days, all the ensemble guidance bring the coldest air in years close by with the only question being how cold does it get in New England. The pattern also appears sustainable which by definition brings snow chances. Eg: no location in ne goes bone dry for weeks on end very often in mid winter.

Yet there are the select few that show any run to run oscillation as evidence that the pattern change is not happening or oversold. Others insist that it's last year all over again. I want to remind everyone that I had 2 weeks of snow cover from this "last year all over again" pattern before the change to cold. Weenies must see snow printed out in qpf 12 days out or it sucks.

Phil mentioned 2005 as a comparable year for such a flip and that may be a decent comparator for this year even on the timing of the change in January. The 2005 blizzard was modeled only inside 5-6 days and for sne, not until 3days out did it became clear it would hit us.

Stop posting dogsh't posts unless you can bring some science into it and keep hope alive...it's coming!

nice post
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

There are some consistencies in the idiocy.

It's been clear that the mild wx was at most a 10 day affair for quite while and the modeling has oscillated around a cold period with the question being for how long. For the past several days, all the ensemble guidance bring the coldest air in years close by with the only question being how cold does it get in New England. The pattern also appears sustainable which by definition brings snow chances. Eg: no location in ne goes bone dry for weeks on end very often in mid winter.

Yet there are the select few that show any run to run oscillation as evidence that the pattern change is not happening or oversold. Others insist that it's last year all over again. I want to remind everyone that I had 2 weeks of snow cover from this "last year all over again" pattern before the change to cold. Weenies must see snow printed out in qpf 12 days out or it sucks.

Phil mentioned 2005 as a comparable year for such a flip and that may be a decent comparator for this year even on the timing of the change in January. The 2005 blizzard was modeled only inside 5-6 days and for sne, not until 3days out did it became clear it would hit us.

Stop posting dogsh't posts unless you can bring some science into it and keep hope alive...it's coming!

 

It's a banter thread, and discussing day 7+ as science is fraught with peril, particularly given the model performances/back pedaling as of late.  It's all conjecture and partially a guessing game.  Remember the epic cold outbreak modeled for early January that turned into reasonable cold?

 

We'll have our chance Tuesday-Thursday as the GEFS hinted at last night and the GGEM/Euro have toyed with, after that who knows. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

It's a banter thread, and discussing day 7+ as science is fraught with peril, particularly given the model performances/back pedaling as of late.  It's all conjecture and partially a guessing game.  Remember the epic cold outbreak modeled for early January that turned into reasonable cold?

 

We'll have our chance Tuesday-Thursday as the GEFS hinted at last night and the GGEM/Euro have toyed with, after that who knows. 

Wed Thursday

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