Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I've seen enough, hopefully the pattern is better after MLK. Still some doldrums to get through if this Tuesday deal doesn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS 8-14 brings the entire motherlode into the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sub 500 thickness line into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS 8-14 brings the entire motherlode into the USA. But do you buy it? The serious cold around the 18-20 could be model magic. I do like the idea of a major, major storm between the 21-23 that does finally dump the cold. Not sure about it being all that chilly before hand...let's see what the ensembles/euro show. 1 more week left in the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 still plenty of time, the 18th as the transition point is valid but it looks like the real cold now is after MLK Looks like my call for winter's return on January 18th was spot on. Thoughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If you guys follow Qvector's posts, the motherload on the 0z gfs comes in during the time frame he has pinned for an arctic outbreak. So I will stand by his expert advice and say there is growing support for something like what the 0z gfs is showing to occur within the next 15 days. Just keep the faith guys. This thread has definitely been filled with more debbie downers lately. Let's change that tomorrow please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks like my call for winter's return on January 18th was spot on. Thoughs? Well I would have to say the 15th because that is when we turn colder and stay colder, but that is just semantics so you were pretty much right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Qvectorman was hinting that cold would be delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Qvectorman was hinting that cold would be delayed But he was very confident about the 23-27 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 But he was very confident about the 23-27 time frame. Like coastalwx said we should probably wait until Sunday. The period around the 23 looks good for a big storm and cold dump. That's a long ways away, lets hope we get into some snow before then. We need a big storm in the mix. Was hoping for one pre 22-25th. Max it's 1/12, we may be looking at another week before a snow threat. It'd just be nice to see something break favorably in the shorter term whether it be the Tuesday wave or Thursday. We've all had 50" of 8-15 day snow and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 But he was very confident about the 23-27 time frame. I know a lot of the mets have been saying the models would yoyo with the pattern change, it seems one run is good then not so good, hopefully it pans out in our favor, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 50" realized Jan 2011. Best month ever. Let's just hope this SSW can produce results to half of that month in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hold on rev days and days of vodka tickling down soon I think Snow 88 is the one in theredshirt ...LOL classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Gets are fine. There's the Thursday threat (which the op gfs had in day 12 fantasy range but lost more recently), a quick dump of cold, relaxation of the cold and then another dump behind a storm threat mlk weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 the colder more "seasonable" air is coming mon nite. i dont' care if i still ave a +2.5 or not, it's gonna be seasonable and i'm happy that is not gonna be delayed further. looks like fri-sat prob bring in a period of -12-17c 850's. I think the motherload may be on the way a week later. So this almost looks like a "step down" cold period. I mean bottom line it's gonna get cold and it looks like it will be cold for a while (2 weeks at least) . we may relax a bit after next weekend b4 the big chill, but there will be plenty of cold air around this time and i think we just need to get some SW's in the area. The pattern looks to change pretty drastically for us IMO and i dont see any mild ups in the extended either. lets get some storms in the area and hope the exteneded cold pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 the colder more "seasonable" air is coming mon nite. i dont' care if i still ave a +2.5 or not, it's gonna be seasonable and i'm happy that is not gonna be delayed further. looks like fri-sat prob bring in a period of -12-17c 850's. I think the motherload may be on the way a week later. So this almost looks like a "step down" cold period. I mean bottom line it's gonna get cold and it looks like it will be cold for a while (2 weeks at least) . we may relax a bit after next weekend b4 the big chill, but there will be plenty of cold air around this time and i think we just need to get some SW's in the area. The pattern looks to change pretty drastically for us IMO and i dont see any mild ups in the extended either. lets get some storms in the area and hope the exteneded cold pattern holds. Timing still seems up in the air but that's tied to models developing different lows. Gradual cool down by Tuesday. More pronounced later Thursday into Friday maybe with snow? If we get a snow event it's real cold mlk, no Thursday storm a gradual step down until the big daddy 22-24?? I do think we will see quick shifts from the coldest to moderation --> storm threat --> cold shot thru the end of the month. In between seasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Btw in the spring upgrade notes on the gefs: "Winter cold bias increased, particularly over eastern North America in retrospective runs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Timing still seems up in the air but that's tied to models developing different lows. Gradual cool down by Tuesday. More pronounced later Thursday into Friday maybe with snow? If we get a snow event it's real cold mlk, no Thursday storm a gradual step down until the big daddy 22-24?? I do think we will see quick shifts from the coldest to moderation --> storm threat --> cold shot thru the end of the month. In between seasonable? Just give me a storm that tracks favorably for 'some' snow. Going three weeks w/o tracking anything in the middle of winter is excruciating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro op has some precip Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro op has some precip Tuesday. euro consistent w/ polar fro passage mon eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sorry just have to share even though it's from pay site since they adjust their contours and post the min. temp...this might be once in life time run to see a forecast run with -40.2C 850's just north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The colder air later next week defitnely got tempered which is the theme as of late. It's not surprising with the propensity of a -pna. Still should wait until Sunday to really know how this shakes out, but the longer term looks pretty good. I still don't know how long the NAO and Pacific stay favorable as models sort of weaken ridging in both places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 AMOUT...it's going to snow on Tuesday ECMWF BRINGS MEASUREABLE PCPN INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not saying it means anything, but I have notice a total lack of fantasy snow storms on the gfs this year. Wonder if it had anything to do with upgrade. Not saying its been stellar, just a lack of that day 9 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 31.6/31 here with fog. I can see ice on the deck still, but with this temp/dp,I doubt any freezing is still occurring unless the snow pack is keeping the last couple feet cold which I gues is possible. Regardless, my zr must be essentially done. Time to wait for winter's return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm putting in a pellet stove this year. Relying 100% on oil is killing me. Next winter will be a cold one too since we're on the 10 year repeating pattern. We are heating primarily with two wood stoves with oil primairly relegated for hot water. The pellet's probably a nice option because the stoves require a lot of attention and the mixed blessing of lots of treks through the snow to replenish the wood supply. Also, if you're in the position having your own wood supply to cut, you've got an activity that will keep you occupied throughout the warm and cool seasons being focused on the upcoming cold season (as well as the one beyond). Just had another big roof slide. I'm going to go on a limb and say that perhaps my roof is cleared. Opportunity to inspect how many slates have come down, ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sorry just have to share even though it's from pay site since they adjust their contours and post the min. temp...this might be once in life time run to see a forecast run with -40.2C 850's just north of the border. gfs 0z 1122013.jpgfeb 96 dropped -40C right into C MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Drip drip drip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks meh for mon/tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Temp dropped during my 11 miler this morning. Was 37.1 when I started..Now down to 36.. High tomorrow of 50? Thankfully it keeps cooling off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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