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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

MJO progs are interesting. most everything agrees on a huge burst and push into 4/5/6. OLR looks like it's coming to life - but seasonal trend has been for these to diminish.

and if you use a simple wheeler diagram analysis, it already seems like most guidance is overestimating the pulse coming. that could be a good thing as the north american NH players that are favorable would likely overwhelm any negative impact from weak tropical forcing in the far western pacific.

if those charts are right, it's going to be hard to fight the torch. but if the recent trend holds (just the last few days vs where it's "supposed to be headed") we may be in luck after this coming week.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

lol.

so what do you make of GYX headline? They say Major Pattern change next weekend but dont' elaborate at all.

I'm not going to get into the debate that was on here earlier...we are right near the edge of muting a lot of the warmth at times and the possibility of racking up the > +10F days. I think the pattern change is simply what we've all been talking about...they're going to keep the zfp's a little more closer to climo in the medium to long range rather than trying to nail specific 40-50F days.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

MJO progs are interesting. most everything agrees on a huge burst and push into 4/5/6. OLR looks like it's coming to life - but seasonal trend has been for these to diminish.

and if you use a simple wheeler diagram analysis, it already seems like most guidance is overestimating the pulse coming. that could be a good thing as the north american NH players that are favorable would likely overwhelm any negative impact from weak tropical forcing in the far western pacific.

if those charts are right, it's going to be hard to fight the torch. but if the recent trend holds (just the last few days vs where it's "supposed to be headed") we may be in luck after this coming week.

 

Yea Phil good catch. I think your worries of a two week disaster type period might be mitigated some. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Paragraphs much? ;)

 

Great post, feast or famine winter and oh so close to the NYC Metro ... the only frozen I run into walking through the park on my way home is a petrified dog turd every now and then.

 

I guess it makes up for 09-10 which was a dream down here but I don't think that way.  I'm already working on the fiancee to move to a snowier clime. 

 

L'chaim, Jerry!

To you sir!

Yeah I had it formatted in paragraphs and it just came out as one splat run on stream of consciousness. Maybe it's the upgrade.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

MJO progs are interesting. most everything agrees on a huge burst and push into 4/5/6. OLR looks like it's coming to life - but seasonal trend has been for these to diminish.

and if you use a simple wheeler diagram analysis, it already seems like most guidance is overestimating the pulse coming. that could be a good thing as the north american NH players that are favorable would likely overwhelm any negative impact from weak tropical forcing in the far western pacific.

if those charts are right, it's going to be hard to fight the torch. but if the recent trend holds (just the last few days vs where it's "supposed to be headed") we may be in luck after this coming week.

 

Agreed - posted this exact same sentiment couple pages back.   

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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I'm not going to get into the debate that was on here earlier...we are right near the edge of muting a lot of the warmth at times and the possibility of racking up the > +10F days. I think the pattern change is simply what we've all been talking about...they're going to keep the zfp's a little more closer to climo in the medium to long range rather than trying to nail specific 40-50F days.

No I am not trying to draw you into that debate.  I am genuinely mystified.  They say a pattern change around the 12th (next Saturday).    I'm literally confused.  You think it is for warmth but I wonder it is for the coming cold...because isn't the real pattern change starting early next week not late next week?  Oh well...you are probably right but I found it confusing.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted

No I am not trying to draw you into that debate.  I am genuinely mystified.  They say a pattern change around the 12th (next Saturday).    I'm literally confused.  You think it is for warmth but I wonder it is for the coming cold...because isn't the real pattern change starting early next week not late next week?  Oh well...you are probably right but I found it confusing.

 

I thought it was because of the sudden stratospheric warming that takes 14+/- days to affect us. Also I thought I read on here in the past that the long range models dont pick up the lower level cold well so it may be awhile before its modeled. Thats my crude understanding of whats supposed to happen second half of Jan. A real met can probably correct me.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I remember driving up to Sugarloaf in January of 1996 and we stopped for the night in Portland at the Eastland Hotel, holly cow was there ever a ton of snow in Portland.

 

If the cape snows usually Portland will to, They battle the coastal front and usually end up on the wrong side

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

IJD -6, my house -5 , city Tarmacs and SW Ct FTL, snow covered countrysides FTW, please post as often next weekend, thanks

Lol nice spin man. You have been preaching cold since oct 2011, now ORH is a warm spot. Enjoy the torch! Bitter bitter bitter cold!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Lol nice spin man. You have been preaching cold since oct 2011, now ORH is a warm spot. Enjoy the torch! Bitter bitter bitter cold!

If you are going to lie do it better, please link me to a preaching cold post other than on Dec 16 th when I showed analogs that indicated the period between Christmas and the first week of Jan would be cold and potentially snowy. In fact if you look you will also find I said a thaw would possible occur then a reload.
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Can now see the beginning of the warmer period even on the NAM.  Ugly to see the 540 line lifting north of us in January. 

 

I went back and tried to find the attachments that I had from D 10-15 of the GFS diving cold air all the way down to New Orleans a bunch of times last month.  In the upgrade they appear to have gone poof (much like the cold snaps that were forecasted).   We'll have to see whether it's real or not in the longer term but my thought is the model(s) are rushing the change again.

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