The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Damage In Tolland]

Even though the week looks relatively dry, other than a few squalls with a couple fropas...I wouldn't be surprised to see that mid week clipper turn into a light,maybe moderate snow event as we move closer. Some hints of it.

Looks a well below normal week..with teens and 20's for highs and lows near 0.

Deep snowpack to the coast now. The blanket of snow that Phil and Scooter have been chasing now envelops them like a shawl laying upon a grandmother's shoulders.

Winter at it's finest

[CoastalWx]

11-15 day is gonna suck I think.Snow shut off for a while.

[Damage In Tolland]

11-15 day is gonna suck I think.Snow shut off for a while.

I still think we can keep the real mild stuff south of us. A lot of cold near and over the border..we should be able to fight most of that mess off. But a couple days of 40 or something is probably gonna happen

[CoastalWx]

I still think we can keep the real mild stuff south of us. A lot of cold near and over the border..we should be able to fight most of that mess off. But a couple days of 40 or something is probably gonna happen

Yeah just enough to stab a little snow away each day. I hate that. Honestly, we may be in the doldrums for awhile, unless a Sultan miracle happens. Day 5 is the only thing I see relevant, but looks like a fropa as the energy gets ripped apart. Maybe it trends better.

The gradient will be close by on those days you mentioned. Hopefully we are on the good side of things.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah just enough to stab a little snow away each day. I hate that. Honestly, we may be in the doldrums for awhile, unless a Sultan miracle happens. Day 5 is the only thing I see relevant, but looks like a fropa as the energy gets ripped apart. Maybe it trends better.

The gradient will be close by on those days you mentioned. Hopefully we are on the good side of things.

I don't think we can get a big event later this week..but I see a few subtle signs that clipper could do better than advertised..Maybe like a 2-4 event or something if things come together

[Bostonseminole]

when is the clipper?

[CoastalWx]

when is the clipper?

There really isn't one modeled. He's talking about something at day 5 but verbatim it gets shredded.

[Mr Torchey]

Coating tomorrow night?

[ericnh]

wow what a let down now there is nothing to track going to be a long 2 week peroid! maybe something will surprise up but not looking stormy at all!

[Modfan]

I still think we can keep the real mild stuff south of us. A lot of cold near and over the border..we should be able to fight most of that mess off. But a couple days of 40 or something is probably gonna happen

I'll take a couple of days in the 40's to prevent the ice jam disaster from two years ago

[DavisStraight]

wow what a let down now there is nothing to track going to be a long 2 week peroid! maybe something will surprise up but not looking stormy at all!

In the good years surprises pop up out of nowhere sometimes, lets hope this is one of those years.

[free_man]

Hopefully we get a good warming trend or two in January if the snow is done for awhile.

[TalcottWx]

I don't mind cold without snow

[CoastalWx]

Euro has a big ridge with a ton of energy dropping on the east side of it near day 5. It tries to redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. It's not really anything now, but perhaps something to watch..especially if the trough in the south decides to orient itself more favorable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11-15 day is gonna suck I think.Snow shut off for a while.

We've traded a punt of December for a not-so-epic January lol

[CoastalWx]

We've traded a punt of December for a not-so-epic January lol

It's one of those deals where it might be gradient like in the 11-15 day, but the GEFS are definitely more amplified for something better. Can't really get a feel.

[Bostonseminole]

There really isn't one modeled. He's talking about something at day 5 but verbatim it gets shredded.

. Oh ok, thanks.

[CoastalWx]

. Oh ok, thanks.

I'd still watch it for now.

[Mr Torchey]

Great time of year for pack retention, even with temps slightly above freezing

[OSUmetstud]

It's one of those deals where it might be gradient like in the 11-15 day, but the GEFS are definitely more amplified for something better. Can't really get a feel.

lol

[CoastalWx]

lol

Well meaning cold in Canada and a rather mild US. Somewhere in between is where we will be, but I wouldn't expect anything noteworthy at this time.

[weathafella]

Well meaning cold in Canada and a rather mild US. Somewhere in between is where we will be, but I wouldn't expect anything noteworthy at this time.

It ws in12/31/93 that models had a mild look to them in the medium and long range. Never underestimate Canadian cold in January.

[OSUmetstud]

Well meaning cold in Canada and a rather mild US. Somewhere in between is where we will be, but I wouldn't expect anything noteworthy at this time.

every mention of a real gradient pattern has failed this year. I don't see how any of the december anomalies that verified supported a real gradient pattern. There's just big negative anomalies over the West Coast and then big positive anomalies over the midwest/northeast/SE Canada and Greenland.

Maybe it will finally work out in mid January?

I'm kind of a sick of hearing about phantom gradient patterns, anyway. When is there going to be a real winter pattern?

[CoastalWx]

It ws in12/31/93 that models had a mild look to them in the medium and long range. Never underestimate Canadian cold in January.

Well models are a bit better now..lol, but I know what you are saying. We'll see..not really hot on this pattern at the moment, but maybe a few events sneak up on us.

[CoastalWx]

every mention of a real gradient pattern has failed this year. I don't see how any of the december anomalies that verified supported a real gradient pattern. There's just big negative anomalies over the West Coast and then big positive anomalies over the midwest/northeast/SE Canada and Greenland.

Maybe it will finally work out in mid January?

I'm kind of a sick of hearing about phantom gradient patterns, anyway. When is there going to be a real winter pattern?

Canada will be pretty cold with that PV and the US warm, so a temp gradient exists. But, where will this area be? I'm sort of on the milder side, but when that PV sinks south..little nuances will have a big say in nrn tier weather.

[OSUmetstud]

Canada will be pretty cold with that PV and the US warm, so a temp gradient exists. But, where will this area be? I'm sort of on the milder side, but when that PV sinks south..little nuances will have a big say in nrn tier weather.

Isn't a PV over northern Hudson Bay like the EC ensemble is showing bad for the east?

[ChrisM]

Upslope on and off all day

[Great Snow 1717]

11-15 day is gonna suck I think.Snow shut off for a while.

I completely agree with your line of thinking. I believe we have reached a crtical point(next 11-15 days) in how this winter will play out. I'm concerned that the core of the arctic air is going to remain in Canada. Another concern is the ongoing drought situation across a large portion of the country.......lack of storminess.

I think our best bets for a cold and snowy winter revolves around 2 things occuring. First we need the cold dropping out of Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada. Secondly the Gulf of Mexico has to become open for business. My fear is if the Gulf of Mexico doesn't become open for business then we are going to have a winter featuring cutters.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice week of winter to follow up a fantastic week. Squalls and cold with a possible clipper. Can not wait until someone punts Jan.

[TalcottWx]

Many areas now even above average. We had cold and snowy holiday season. We can't complain. Still due for a storm here. Least yesterday went out with a bang.