aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The cold is gone before it ever came Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Early next week still looked pretty darn cold to me on the Euro. What are you all looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Early next week still looked pretty darn cold to me on the Euro. What are you all looking at? I was kinda wondering the same thing. -18 850's overhead is damn cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the short range is crap...the long range looks horrible. Its not going to snow in DC this year. Its pretty obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I was kinda wondering the same thing. -18 850's overhead is damn cold here. One thing encouraging to me is how wet it has been. I know we just had two dry weeks, but since mid Dec we've had several wet systems, the last two days as an example. In 2009, it was dry period, not just when cold. Last year, same deal. So, get some cool air in here, maybe we get snowy. It's a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HM and others were discussing it...looks like after the initial cold shot it may warm...no torch but warm....just sayin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HM and others were discussing it...looks like after the initial cold shot it may warm...no torch but warm....just sayin.... How's the day 10 MECS coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the short range is crap...the long range looks horrible. Its not going to snow in DC this year. Its pretty obvious We switched the title to D.C long range thread?......this post doesnt even deserve to be on the board but since you have been here so long I guess people tolerate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was going to post about this earlier in the day and got caught up but here is the graphic from last night. Not using the usual Mike V. CCKW map. This xt-RWT is too far north to show up on that map. But I have circled the 2 RWTs. The closest one at about 130W is still expected to come over the top of the ridge as a clipper on the 20th as I discussed last week. The second one I have timed to arrive Jan 24 into 25 across the East. I believe it will follow suit and be a clipper. Models will be really screwy with this one for the next couple days. The Euro broke up the energy and had it spinning off weaker pieces of energy for several days after it's collision with the high and the GFS took it over the top delivering it as a clipper across the GLKS on 0z 1/25 bring more cold to the East Coast for 25-29. Time will tell what the correct answer is. I believe it will end up being a clipper as the 1/20 wave is progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was going to post about this earlier in the day and got caught up but here is the graphic from last night. Not using the usual Mike V. CCKW map. This xt-RWT is too far north to show up on that map. But I have circled the 2 RWTs. The closest one at about 130W is still expected to come over the top of the ridge as a clipper on the 20th as I discussed last week. The second one I have timed to arrive Jan 24 into 25 across the East. I believe it will follow suit and be a clipper. Models will be really screwy with this one for the next couple days. The Euro broke up the energy and had it spinning off weaker pieces of energy for several days after it's collision with the high and the GFS took it over the top delivering it as a clipper across the GLKS on 0z 1/25 bring more cold to the East Coast for 25-29. Time will tell what the correct answer is. I believe it will end up being a clipper as the 1/20 wave is progged. wed.jpg Thank you for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We switched the title to D.C long range thread?......this post doesnt even deserve to be on the board but since you have been here so long I guess people tolerate it Do yourself a favor and learn how to use the ignore feature. GFS from this morning was showing a weak clipper for the middle of next week. It is lost in the mountains of course. But if it is a little stronger maybe we can get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Call out the National Guard. 12z GFS has precip in NOVA with cold air Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Call out the National Guard. 12z GFS has precip in NOVA with cold air Monday evening. The interesting part of that is this was modeled stronger a couple days ago. A small feature like this in fast flow will be modeled many different ways. If you look at the 500 loop you can see why it can't really get its act together. GFS really bombs the low that is screwing us out of snow right now over southern greenland and then interacts with the gl this weekend. This keeps the flow too "round" around the bottom of the trough to let the vort do much except provide weak lift. If we can get some additional amplification @ 500 then things change with the quickness. At the very least we have something to watch. It's an outside shot but it's also pretty far out in time and many things transpire in advance. The entire evolution is subject to many changes (for better or for worse). Before Wes comes here and smashes me with a hammer I better be clear with my expectations. Likely best case is a more amplified setup @ 5h that allows the vort to pass underneath with a sharper axis. This could = 1-2" of dry fluffy snow if the stars align. Worst case is cold and dry. Persistence says odds of worst case are might higher than best case but at least we can watch something and not worry about ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS is now cooking up some sort of phase in the middle of the country around hr165+. Not all that pretty but something nonetheless. We'll see where it goes but it looks kinda like a snow to ice setup. lol Better edit now to include the rain to rain possibility. LOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Before Wes comes here and smashes me with a hammer I better be clear with my expectations. Likely best case is a more amplified setup @ 5h that allows the vort to pass underneath with a sharper axis. This could = 1-2" of dry fluffy snow if the stars align. Worst case is cold and dry. Persistence says odds of worst case are might higher than best case but at least we can watch something and not worry about ptype. Bob, I like you too much to squash you like a bug. In my outlook on Tuesday I mentioned the possibility of Flurries Monday afternoon or evening and that still looks good. To get an inch or two, even of fluff, we'd need the vort to go to our south. I think that's pretty unlikely but not totally impossible. Right now, I'd be happy with a dusting which might be doable with the cold providing the GFS is anywhere near correct. That's a pretty big assumption when dealing with a vort digging southward around a vortex that may not be that well forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS really bombs the low that is screwing us out of snow right now over southern greenland and then interacts with the gl this weekend. Of course it does. Why shouldn't this piece of crap system today find a way to hose us three days from now too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We need to get out of January as soon as possible....Feb will rock. This should be the January mascot for the DC area: MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS is now cooking up some sort of phase in the middle of the country around hr165+. Not all that pretty but something nonetheless. We'll see where it goes but it looks kinda like a snow to ice setup. lol Better edit now to include the rain to rain possibility. LOLOL Bob, that look on the 165+ hours is pretty much the Day 10 Euro I posted in my outlook of how we could get a day to two of moderation and above normal temps. The ridge position in the Pac is starting to look ugly again and the D+11 superens is starting to gain shot the dreaded above normal heights along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Bob, that look on the 165+ hours is pretty much the Day 10 Euro I posted in my outlook of how we could get a day to two of moderation and above normal temps. The ridge position in the Pac is starting to look ugly again and the D+11 superens is starting to gain shot the dreaded above normal heights along the east coast. Yep, just ran 500 loop. Heh, there are simply no breaks for us. For whatever reason the MA appears to be incapable of timing a single thing, sneaking in a surprise, or capitalizing on any half decent pattern. I suppose the one thing that can actually help is the fact that a pv is on our side of the planet. It refuses to help it appears but all the wobbles and shifts are not set in stone. Far from it. So i guess if we stand a chance at anything, we need the pv to work some magic and make a stand instead of being a big wuss and hiding n of hudson when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Bob, that look on the 165+ hours is pretty much the Day 10 Euro I posted in my outlook of how we could get a day to two of moderation and above normal temps. The ridge position in the Pac is starting to look ugly again and the D+11 superens is starting to gain shot the dreaded above normal heights along the east coast. And that look is exactly the one I posted about in the banter thread. Get that low to develop a little further south, maybe a touch east, send it up the Ohio Valley, cold high pressure in NE, and that's a situation that the Shen Valley does very well with. I know its not a great look for others, but those of us just east of mountains tend to do well in those setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am about ready to punt the whole thing. I have never had any hope at all for a good winter. But I have waited patiently with the hope that there would be some periods where the PNA would relax and allow the NAO/AO to dominate and we might get at least something. I am beginning to give up on that. We saw the first "colder" period fall apart on us in late december without any real threats materialize. Now the second "interesting" period is doing the same. When the PNA does relax, the NAO goes to crap. Rinse repeat... We are likely to go through this 7 day period of "colder" weather without a real storm threat, and the signs now fully point towards a warmup after. Yes it will reload into February but I have little faith that the next cycle will be significantly better. There could always be a fluke event. Today could have been such an event if this evolved 100 miles north of where it is, but my hope for anything in terms of sustained wintery period with cold and snow is just about gone. It hurts a little less since I never had much optimism for this year anyways, but 2 completely lost years in a row still hurts some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep, just ran 500 loop. Heh, there are simply no breaks for us. For whatever reason the MA appears to be incapable of timing a single thing, sneaking in a surprise, or capitalizing on any half decent pattern. I suppose the one thing that can actually help is the fact that a pv is on our side of the planet. It refuses to help it appears but all the wobbles and shifts are not set in stone. Far from it. So i guess if we stand a chance at anything, we need the pv to work some magic and make a stand instead of being a big wuss and hiding n of hudson when it matters. Yeah. You have to love how the PV relaxes just enough for the storm to cut to the lakes. Not our winter. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah. You have to love how the PV relaxes just enough for the storm to cut to the lakes. Not our winter. Again. We can survive a cutter. It just needs to be an Ohio Valley cutter. Of course, that's not going to be an all snow event. In fact it would almost certainly be a mixed bag event, but those can be fun. Jan 2009, Jan 2011 (not the big snow), Dec 2012 are prime examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We can survive a cutter. It just needs to be an Ohio Valley cutter. Of course, that's not going to be an all snow event. In fact it would almost certainly be a mixed bag event, but those can be fun. Jan 2009, Jan 2011 (not the big snow), Dec 2012 are prime examples. It's not all about where it ends up but also how it gets there. One problem is there is a complete lack of any southern energy, and the northern branch systems are just not digging enough. Everything is originating way too far north. A storm that taps the gult and then rides to the lakes, if there is cold entrenched can give us some nice WAA snow/ice way out ahead of the low before the changeover. These systems that are cut off from the gulf and orgininate further north are no good. There is not going to be that big plume of WAA precip way out ahead of the system that can get in here before the changeover. This is just a total crap pattern if you want anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We need to get out of January as soon as possible....Feb will rock. This should be the January mascot for the DC area: MDstorm I was joking about that back in December (Feb will be rocking). Pretty sad that this what it's come to. However, I'm not disappointed. I had incredibly low expectations right from the start, and this winter has done its best to live down to them. Including last winter, have we ever had two consecutive winters as bereft of snow as these. BTW - Parts of Mississippi are getting more snow today than DC has had all this winter. Weather is certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's not all about where it ends up but also how it gets there. One problem is there is a complete lack of any southern energy, and the northern branch systems are just not digging enough. Everything is originating way too far north. A storm that taps the gult and then rides to the lakes, if there is cold entrenched can give us some nice WAA snow/ice way out ahead of the low before the changeover. These systems that are cut off from the gulf and orgininate further north are no good. There is not going to be that big plume of WAA precip way out ahead of the system that can get in here before the changeover. This is just a total crap pattern if you want anything significant. Yes, and strangely enough this is one topic that I do understand. I looked at the origin of that low and realized the difference. One good thing about 168 hours. No way will the pattern be what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I guess I missed the boat here. Wasn't it supposed to get cold next week? Looks seasonal at best to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I guess I missed the boat here. Wasn't it supposed to get cold next week? Looks seasonal at best to me. You're confused. What once was seasonal is now frigid. What was once warm is now seasonal. What once was cold is now extinct. So within those parameters, next week will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Does the Euro show anything interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Does the Euro show anything interesting? .25 for DCA in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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