Ji Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like it has a lake cutter day 8 and 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like it has a lake cutter day 8 and 9 a rainy warm week from saturday cold and dry, warm and wet phineas is the best forecaster the forum has ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 a rainy warm week from saturday cold and dry, warm and wet phineas is the best forecaster the forum has ever had In this area every forecaster should be like him and they will be right 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Just say no to snow and the NAM and you win. meh.. the nam is useful. oversimplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 OK, so when does our epic period of winter begin? What's the latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 OK, so when does our epic period of winter begin? What's the latest? Bastardi's December to remember = FAIL, Coldmeggedon = FAIL, DT's severe cold = FAIL, Winter 2012-2013 FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 next week's cold is cold but not that crazy anymore. maybe a low in the teens in dc? pretty much standard for any winter if that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 .25 for DCA in a few hours .25 of a snowflake? Appears to have verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 .25 of a snowflake? You know better to use the Euro inside of 24 hours. supposedly it's still the best in that range tho i wonder how some of these verifications are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From HM a little good news: Just a quick post; I have to run... I am going to be a little more optimistic today than I have been lately. First of all, the system that sparks the "near-miss" coastal early next week is located up in Alaska. It will drop down through Canada over the next few days before amplifying into the Midwest / Northeast. I know I have been nay-saying it for the most part but I do think the s/w will trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It may be enough to bring snow showers or even some light snow to the area as it passes through. I think it will be able to clip eastern New England, but the obvious uncertainty applies. Finally, I think the 1/25 system will be a "SWFE" as the New Englanders call it and it may bring most of the area a front end snow/mix before a change to rain/dry slot. I don't think it will be all rain and a simple cutter. I'll be back later... I didn't get a sleet pellet with the last event...but can I get a snowflake tonight?!!?! haha It is from the Philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Someone should close this thread and start a new one just to see if our luck can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Please. Somebody close this thread. I can feel it. New thread, new result. In case they don't, lots of GFS members with various forms of interest in the day 8-10!range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 LWG predicts cold shot will underwhelm....potential for +6 winter very real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 From HM a little good news: Just a quick post; I have to run... I am going to be a little more optimistic today than I have been lately. First of all, the system that sparks the "near-miss" coastal early next week is located up in Alaska. It will drop down through Canada over the next few days before amplifying into the Midwest / Northeast. I know I have been nay-saying it for the most part but I do think the s/w will trend stronger as we get closer to the event. It may be enough to bring snow showers or even some light snow to the area as it passes through. I think it will be able to clip eastern New England, but the obvious uncertainty applies. Finally, I think the 1/25 system will be a "SWFE" as the New Englanders call it and it may bring most of the area a front end snow/mix before a change to rain/dry slot. I don't think it will be all rain and a simple cutter. I'll be back later... I didn't get a sleet pellet with the last event...but can I get a snowflake tonight?!!?! haha It is from the Philly thread. I don't see any good news for us in that post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Must read: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/show.html?entrynum=22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't see any good news for us in that post... I don't see any good news for us in that post... Yes. It reads we will get whiffed. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Someone should close this thread and start a new one just to see if our luck can change. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Must read: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/show.html?entrynum=22 That doesn't seem good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 That doesn't seem good. I'm not sure if it's good or bad as much as a reminder that the long range is often absurdly cold and absurdly wrong. I think since it's the long range a lot of the misses become a fuzzy mess and people act like the models have any major clue that far out. On the flip side maybe you can praise the Euro -- again -- for not being as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm not sure if it's good or bad as much as a reminder that the long range is often absurdly cold and absurdly wrong. I think since it's the long range a lot of the misses become a fuzzy mess and people act like the models have any major clue that far out. On the flip side maybe you can praise the Euro -- again -- for not being as bad. I refuse to praise a model that gives us DC folk no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 good to know gfs is clueless in long range after tonights 3 rainstorm s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 good to know gfs is clueless in long range after tonights 3 rainstorm s Yeah but according to that write up it's clueless as to how warm it's going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Holy cold...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 cold but about what we would expect to get every year once or twice at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 last yr was a pretty crazy anomaly for dc itself when it comes to cold temps. i mean it was way below reaching quotas even the warm current normals. we're basically in a similar place for this winter so we almost need some good cold or maybe our local climate has snapped. still only 10 freezing or lower lows.. DJF avg is 65 over recent 30 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 cold but about what we would expect to get every year once or twice at that level, BUT CAN'T TAKE FOR GRANTED NOWADAYS. Fixed. But what are our chances of getting precip to match? I'm not even investing myself in the Monday "system". I wouldn't be able to handle another let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 GFS has a high here on Tuesday of 19, with an attendant wind chill of 3 degrees. Not extreme, but pretty cold for this area under sunny skies and with no snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Fixed. But what are our chances of getting precip to match? I'm not even investing myself in the Monday "system". I wouldn't be able to handle another let down. even putting system in quotes might be kind. i don't see much there for us at least. might enhance upslope etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Lol...60's showing up on the gfs to end January.....frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro much colder with a miller b day 10. No cutter whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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