Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You know it. Honestly, I can't believe how unexcited I am about the NAM. Maybe I've finally learned, lol Not really into that snow at all. But weather related, don't fall into the NAM spell. I'm proud of you dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is like a 14 seed in the NCAA tournament....every once in a while it wins or keeps it very close, but usually it loses by 30 pts While the event has not happened yet, the NAM was the first model to get precip past the VA/NC border 36 hours ago. Now I believe all models have mostly backed off the extremely suppressed look. Follow the leader....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol...it is hard to believe how bad this model can be <48 hrs from an event.... No it's not. Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No it's not. Not anymore. LOL at the reverse psychology technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm proud of you dude Thanks man, it took me awhile. Just a year ago, I would have made about 10 breathless posts in a row about game on, etc. I saw the NAM before the posting sprees here about it and didn't even make a post about it. I guess I finally got tired of being Charlie Brown. Now if the GFS has it, then an eyebrow gets raised. Just an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 LOL at the reverse psychology technique.Uh, no.It's a model. No amount of psychology in the world is going to work it's vodoo magic. But nice try though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 While the event has not happened yet, the NAM was the first model to get precip past the VA/NC border 36 hours ago. Now I believe all models have mostly backed off the extremely suppressed look. Follow the leader....? the euro had a decent bump north in the precip shield at 12z... and the 12z euro ens mean is actually kinda juicy looking... .25" to DCA.. but precip might not be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The NAM is like a 14 seed in the NCAA tournament....every once in a while it wins or keeps it very close, but usually it loses by 30 pts Don't disagree with you at all. But we all know what function the NAM serves: If there hadn't been a blockbuster snowstorm locked in on models for days, then when we're close in, a suddenly good NAM run will keep everyone waiting until the GFS. A bad one will just "release" everyone to continue with whatever else they were doing. It's almost like a much lesser version of the Golden Globes/Oscars relationship. Maybe the Saturn awards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Perhaps the best NAM catching-onto-a-snowstorm-run in the past few years was the 0Z 1/30/10 run that brought the 0.5" contour north through the area. GFS somewhat followed. LWX expanded the WWA's north and, as you all remember, had to upgrade them to warnings during the next morning. Edited: Of course I'm not saying the solution tonight is likely--- The most interesting part to me is the drastic change in the time-frame we're looking at. Yeah, but it was more of a "minor" coup, wasn't it? Before the 0z runs on 1/30/10, didn't the GFS consistently have at least around .30"? The NAM was the first to latch on to warning criteria snows, but all the models had at least WWA critera snows IIRC, so it was only a minor bump in QPF (I'll defer to you since your snowstorm memory is clearly better than mine , but that's how I remember it at least). Maybe I'm just nit-picking, and we can still call that a NAM win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nah, GFS will rope us in with something like half of what the NAM shows... then tomorrow both will take it all away at the 12z runs Yeah. And I feel so bad about being sucked in to it. Not good for self-esteem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 the euro had a decent bump north in the precip shield at 12z... and the 12z euro ens mean is actually kinda juicy looking... .25" to DCA.. but precip might not be enough. What was the temp profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RGEM (mitch's model) coming in well north... and early to answer gymengineer. Warmer, but RGEM is usually warm. I'll take my chances... Precip gets to the M/D. Low in a decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Uh, no. It's a model. No amount of psychology in the world is going to work it's vodoo magic. But nice try though. Whatever, your secretly hoping you can dig out the keys from WHEREVER you left them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah, but it was more of a "minor" coup, wasn't it? Before the 0z runs on 1/30/10, didn't the GFS consistently have at least around .30"? The NAM was the first to latch on to warning criteria snows, but all the models had at least WWA critera snows IIRC, so it was only a minor bump in QPF (I'll defer to you since your snowstorm memory is clearly better than mine , but that's how I remember it at least). Maybe I'm just nit-picking, and we can still call that a NAM win. No, I'll clear this one up. We all (those of us north of about Charlottesville) went to bed pissed off on Thursday night. Fri NAM 12z started bring it north. All other models followed and the trend continued right up until game time. I went from a forecast of 20% chance of snow on Fri morning to 7 inches of snow on Sat afternoon. Never will forget that one. There was a sharp cutoff on that one though. I was in Hagerstown on Sun and it looked like they had about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 No, I'll clear this one up. We all (those of us north of about Charlottesville) went to bed pissed off on Thursday night. Fri NAM 12z started bring it north. All other models followed and the trend continued right up until game time. I went from a forecast of 20% chance of snow on Fri morning to 7 inches of snow on Sat afternoon. Never will forget that one. There was a sharp cutoff on that one though. I was in Hagerstown on Sun and it looked like they had about an inch. 0z NAM on the 29th (Thursday) Actually backed the best snows well to my south. Had like MAYBE .25 near LYH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What was the temp profile? sfc is 'toasty'.. like u 30s and dropping but it's cold at 850. know op euro tends to run warm at sfc not sure about mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RGEM (mitch's model) coming in well north... and early to answer gymengineer. Warmer, but RGEM is usually warm. I'll take my chances... Precip gets to the M/D. Low in a decent spot. well sh-it...If the RGEM is on board, we cannot be denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sfc is 'toasty'.. like u 30s and dropping but it's cold at 850. know op euro tends to run warm at sfc not sure about mean. What the NAM did was have a little phasing with the N stream feature, so temps crashed a bit, the others haven't phased it yet, so its interesting to see what the next few runs show in terms of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need this storm in the worst way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 well sh-it...If the RGEM is on board, we cannot be denied! *shrugs* http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Its not too off from the nam, but what ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM mos http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need this storm in the worst way Just make sure no one starts a thread for it if things look decent on the GFS. Second quickest way to total failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We need this storm in the worst way Totally. We're already off the cliff but this might prevent the cliff from falling on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think I'll forever remember Jan of 2010. It caused me grief last year, and probably will this time too. Yeah we need another 50 miles or so before I feel any good about this one. But we have had some snow already this year. Let the rest of them get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Weenies smoking the whacky stuff. The RGEM? fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Just make sure no one starts a thread for it if things look decent on the GFS. Second quickest way to total failure. #1 Biggest way= having a radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The time is upon us young padawons. Let the pbp commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The time is upon us young padawons. Let the pbp commence. Far far too soon for any pbp. You guys/gals are going to doom us and then Wes will be sitting in his armchair chuckling to himself while you freak out over some light snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 at 21hrs, GFS is stronger with the vort fwiw vs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like its coming north, at least a bit thru 30, confluence back to the NW a bit, vort definitely stronger. Also, titled a bit more in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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