TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 and considering tonight's storm and we have another 36 hrs, I bet it comes north like the rest have this year Yes, no weenieism involved, I mean I'm scientifically looking at this one, and the trend is there. La ninaish setup, it comes to be expected. For those interested, NAM snowfall maps, around half an inch BWI, but DC 2", 3-6 for S of there, Wesland west of the bay except for those immediately bordering, 6-9 for Huff. Trends not done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes, no weenieism involved, I mean I'm scientifically looking at this one, and the trend is there. La ninaish setup, it comes to be expected. For those interested, NAM snowfall maps, around half an inch BWI, but DC 2", 3-6 for S of there, Wesland west of the bay except for those immediately bordering, 6-9 for Huff. Trends not done. wonder what the other models do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I legit just **** myself when looking at the NAM... Please come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wonder what the other models do with it GFS and Euro have been coming north, euro was closer at 12z, and the s/w strength was what I liked. Overall, if the confluence is more N+W, thats a big assist too, we want this storm to stay warmer for those near the M/D with a low that goes north. I've just been watching, don't give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gotta see soundings. we're still not that close to the vort. but.. gotta love a nice 500 low to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wonder what the other models do with it With the past two waves of this current storm ending up WAY nw of where modeled just a couple of days ago, I don't think there'd be any shock if it came more north. Looks warmish though, especially down where the precip is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wonder what the other models do with it JMA was on this northward trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gotta see soundings. we're still not that close to the vort. but.. gotta love a nice 500 low to our south. It's close to marginal but it is all snow.. and under rates, well now we're talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like about .18 for jyo with all levels below freezing except for BL fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With the past two waves of this current storm ending up WAY nw of where modeled just a couple of days ago, I don't think there'd be any shock if it came more north. Looks warmish though, especially down where the precip is. It was trying to do this just last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Right at .5 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Has the NAM completely been wrong within 48 hours before? Yes. But, it did just move the start-time up by a lot to the point that we're really talking about precip starting by Thursday morning. Within 36 hours now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Has the NAM completely been wrong within 48 hours before? Yes. But, it did just move the start-time up by a lot to the point that we're really talking about precip starting by Thursday morning. 36 hours in now.... NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose. SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose. SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too. They've been coming north however, I'd check the next sref's. Not being cheap, but lets see what the 03z's say with fresh upper air data. JMA (for Ji) is essentially what the NAM shows, maybe a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose. SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too. NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 They've been coming north however, I'd check the next sref's. Not being cheap, but lets see what the 03z's say with fresh upper air data. JMA (for Ji) is essentially what the NAM shows, maybe a bit north. If the GFS comes north, then we can start believing. How many times has the NAM been Lucy and treated us like Charlie Brown with the football.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose. SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too. NAM has been completely wrong within 24 hours too (as have the GFS and Euro)...it's has bounced around with lurching solutions in the past two days. Obviously, we need to see what the other models show, but it's at least an eye-brow raise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas The GFS is going to give us sprinkles in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM has been completely wrong within 24 hours too (as have the GFS and Euro)...it's has bounced around with lurching solutions in the past two days. Obviously, we need to see what the other models show, but it's at least an eye-brow raise at this point.I haven't been able to punt yet. It's maybe the most potentially interesting event IMBY so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas Plenty of "snow" in Vegas my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS is going to give us sprinkles in short order. You know it. Honestly, I can't believe how unexcited I am about the NAM. Maybe I've finally learned, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS is going to give us sprinkles in short order. Nah, GFS will rope us in with something like half of what the NAM shows... then tomorrow both will take it all away at the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Plenty of "snow" in Vegas my friend Not really into that snow at all. But weather related, don't fall into the NAM spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol...it is hard to believe how bad this model can be <48 hrs from an event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think I'll forever remember Jan of 2010. It caused me grief last year, and probably will this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I haven't been able to punt yet. It's maybe the most potentially interesting event IMBY so far this winter. It's the season of Hail Mary's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Perhaps the best NAM catching-onto-a-snowstorm-run in the past few years was the 0Z 1/30/10 run that brought the 0.5" contour north through the area. GFS somewhat followed. LWX expanded the WWA's north and, as you all remember, had to upgrade them to warnings during the next morning. Edited: Of course I'm not saying the solution tonight is likely--- The most interesting part to me is the drastic change in the time-frame we're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's the season of Hail Mary's! I'll take a possibly potent 500 vort passing to my south rather than a cutter or a frontal wave of cold rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Perhaps the best NAM catching-onto-a-snowstorm-run in the past few years was the 0Z 1/30/10 run that brought the 0.5" contour north through the area. GFS somewhat followed. LWX expanded the WWA's north and, as you all remember, had to upgrade them to warnings during the next morning. The NAM is like a 14 seed in the NCAA tournament....every once in a while it wins or keeps it very close, but usually it loses by 30 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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