EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 why would you use some accuweather automated output for over a week from now?...do you even read this forum? Well, I did preface the remark that it was +7 days Accuwx forecast. Ordinarily, I'd just dismiss such garbage, but we've had a real history thus far of modeled cold air shots not exactly coming to fruition. Anyway, I'll put my faith in Bob's First and Final Call forecast of real cold coming next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Meh. I don't want little quarter sized hail dents. I want this kind of dent Is that your moms old car? LOL Here's d6-10 precip. All snow. Could be 1-2 that sticks around for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I imagine we'll get at least 1-2 events where the vort goes through PA and we get glorified cartoppers or maybe even an inch with a good western ridge, there is a good chance of a vort passing to our south on the occasion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Fully in agreement with what zwyts, Bob, and others are saying. We can eek out light snow very easily in these types of patterns. I do like the Tuesday time period with that second push of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 All the local ponds will be solidly frozen if the GFS verifies longterm. Impressive looking cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well, I did preface the remark that it was +7 days Accuwx forecast. Ordinarily, I'd just dismiss such garbage, but we've had a real history thus far of modeled cold air shots not exactly coming to fruition. Anyway, I'll put my faith in Bob's First and Final Call forecast of real cold coming next weekend. You won't have to wait that long. Sunday will probably have steady or falling temps during the day for us. Monday we stay below freezing. Tuesday and Wednesday we may have trouble getting out of the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You won't have to wait that long. Ur prob right. Euro and gfs want to push the first big dump in these parts by mid next week. Judging by how cold the models want to go, this may be the coldest shot of the pattern. Or maybe a decent clipper helps pull the pv further south and we get even colder before the end of the month. It is interesting that this pattern is mostly pac driven. NAO isn't really forcing it. Maybe we hit paydirt when the pac ridge starts breaking down and THEN the nao goes strong neg. There really are a lot of possibilities down the road. Too bad there is almost a zero % chance we get any help from the gulf for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ur prob right. Euro and gfs want to push the first big dump in these parts by mid next week. Judging by how cold the models want to go, this may be the coldest shot of the pattern. Or maybe a decent clipper helps pull the pv further south and we get even colder before the end of the month. It is interesting that this pattern is mostly pac driven. NAO isn't really forcing it. Maybe we hit paydirt when the pac ridge starts breaking down and THEN the nao goes strong neg. There really are a lot of possibilities down the road. Too bad there is almost a zero % chance we get any help from the gulf for the next 7-10 days. Tapping the gulf sure does help but often introduces temp profile issues where sleet mixes and down towards Wes they get rain. Give me a choo choo train of clippers that drop a little each time and re-enforce the cold to make it last. Big thumps then warm ups make me think it shouldn't have even happened in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You won't have to wait that long. Sunday will probably have steady or falling temps during the day for us. Monday we stay below freezing. Tuesday and Wednesday we may have trouble getting out of the teens. That would be impressive, especially without the help of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Tapping the gulf sure does help but often introduces temp profile issues where sleet mixes and down towards Wes they get rain. Give me a choo choo train of clippers that drop a little each time and re-enforce the cold to make it last. Big thumps then warm ups make me think it shouldn't have even happened in the first place. I like that too, but it seems like we never see clippers any more. Maybe we can get a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I like that too, but it seems like we never see clippers any more. Maybe we can get a couple. It does seem like they have been non-existent but we also haven't really had a good pv like this one in almost 8 years. Even when we had good blocking in 09-10 it really wasn't an arctic airmass. Clippers like arctic airmasses. THUNDERSNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS seems like a 2-3" snow with those temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 gymengineer, These values are generated based from HPC's "autoensemble", which is a 28 member ensemble that includes operational model runs as well as 21 SREF members...while the "mode" is the actually deterministic snow/ice forecast based from the HPC winter weather forecaster. I have too noticed that at times this autoensemble is a bit robust when it comes to the ice accumulation threat, especially with the lower thresholds. I think part of that's a function of being correlated with the high resolution SREF ARW and NMMB members. At any rate, while these autoensemble probabilities are unedited, the HPC winter weather forecaster does have the final call on the 10, 40, and 70% probabilities of the 4, 8, and 12" snowfall amounts as well as 0.25" ice amounts. A bit confusing probably, but this link will probably provide more clarity: http://origin.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Excellent overview of the methodology! Here are the two papers referenced at the bottom if anyone wants to dig in deeper: Real-Time Forecasting of Snowfall Using a Neural Network, Roebber, et. al.pdf Precip Type Forecasting using NAM and SREF Data, Manikin.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks das and WxMan1 for the info on that. Looks like some good evening reading tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It does seem like they have been non-existent but we also haven't really had a good pv like this one in almost 8 years. Even when we had good blocking in 09-10 it really wasn't an arctic airmass. Clippers like arctic airmasses. THUNDERSNOW! Wait, didn't we have one in 2010 and a couple in 2011 (that bombed out and slammed NE)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wait, didn't we have one in 2010 and a couple in 2011 (that bombed out and slammed NE)? Jan 2010 is the only one I remember. I try to forget 2011-12 every waking day. We've had some good ones here over the years. I would faint if a nice 5h vort passed between cho and ric and an 850 low pops just east of the br. One 3-6 like this and all is good with the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS seems like a 2-3" snow with those temps... 4-6" lollies for Mt. Tollberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 lets clipper our way to 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 4-6" lollies for Mt. Tollberg? That's a lot on top of Dave's head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow, such optimism and I've only been gone since yesterday afternoon. I must have missed something while writing my CWG post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow, such optimism and I've only been gone since yesterday afternoon. I must have missed something while writing my CWG post. Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro coming on way north as well precip into dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? My guess is that Wes has already spotted and is talking about the next warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My guess is that Wes has already spotted and is talking about the next warm up Or maybe less hope in moisture starved clippers at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? Looks great if you're writing the Horoscope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro coming on way north as well precip into dc Hows it look on our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll have to say this board did a pretty damn good job of identifying this upcoming cold snap weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hows it look on our latitude?near 0.50" at ric trace near dc, cho. roa lyh near 0.25" surface is a hair warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro is pretty cold for JYO tonight. Temps at 33 with 850 temps at 0.5 with lots of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? I was going to answer but then deleted. I want peeps to read my article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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