yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 there's no cold air left by 120 hrs lol http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif The GGEM precip map (if its to be believed of course) has snow for us and as the temps rise it switches to drizzle then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The GGEM precip map (if its to be believed of course) has snow for us and as the temps rise it switches to drizzle then nothing do you have a link because those maps show it's warmed notwithstanding the fact that it's a classic track for us to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Finally moving in with a +PNA and with the consistent bad luck we get a +NAO. We are literally in a major snow drought and a possible La Niña next winter. It seems we can't even get a winter anymore in the DMV. I am just frustrated with the consistent let downs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 there's no cold air left by 120 hrs lol http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif With that 1056+ high riding up out of Siberia and moving SE through western Canada, the mild weather shouldn't last much longer beyond that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Finally moving in with a +PNA and with the consistent bad luck we get a +NAO. We are literally in a major snow drought and a possible La Niña next winter. It seems we can't even get a winter anymore in the DMV. I am just frustrated with the consistent let downs!!! I believe statistically a Nino is favored next winter. One of the mets mentioned it a few weeks ago I believe. Where you getting your information/what are you basing it on. Gut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe statistically a Nino is favored next winter. One of the mets mentioned it a few weeks ago I believe. Where you getting your information/what are you basing it on. Gut? Well, a nina post neutral after nina hasn't happened in the tri-monthlies in the last 60 years or so. I guess statistically it would indicate odds against but such a small set of data doesn't really help make the case exclusively. Leaning towards another neutral or nino is the smarter hedge but still. 02-03 would be a nice analog for next year....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well, a nina post neutral after nina hasn't happened in the tri-monthlies in the last 60 years or so. I guess statistically it would indicate odds against but such a small set of data doesn't really help make the case exclusively. Leaning towards another neutral or nino is the smarter hedge but still. 02-03 would be a nice analog for next year....LOL Most of the dynamic models have the SSTA having above normal temps in the nino region by next June. I worry some about being in a neg pdo regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Where you getting your information/what are you basing it on. Gut? A tad lower and on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 A few of the GEFS members do bring the remains of the upper system far enough north to be interesting at 96 hrs so the GGEM and NAM solutions while still outliers are in the range of possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe statistically a Nino is favored next winter. One of the mets mentioned it a few weeks ago I believe. Where you getting your information/what are you basing it on. Gut? Well, a nina post neutral after nina hasn't happened in the tri-monthlies in the last 60 years or so. I guess statistically it would indicate odds against but such a small set of data doesn't really help make the case exclusively. Leaning towards another neutral or nino is the smarter hedge but still. 02-03 would be a nice analog for next year....LOL Most of the dynamic models have the SSTA having above normal temps in the nino region by next June. I worry some about being in a neg pdo regime. Chances are we have a Nino or neutral next winter, with a Nino the more likely of the 2 based on my research...I made a quick post about it maybe a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Chances are we have a Nino or neutral next winter, with a Nino the more likely of the 2 based on my research...I made a quick post about it maybe a week ago Then maybe next year we'll have a good snow winter though even with a nino the odds still are a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Next years niño better than this years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Then maybe next year we'll have a good snow winter though even with a nino the odds still are a coin flip. we don't even need to flip a coin anymore with a NINA so I'd say our odds would increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 not surprisingly, Euro says no to Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Next years niño better than this years? gotta be better. I do think the odds strongly favor most of the rest of the winter having a negative AO as the ssw has been pretty impressive. If so, you got to think we'll get lucky somewhere down the line and have blocking in the right place to get a moderate storm or two. Of course, I could be suffering from I wanta see snow syndrome, a common affliction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 gotta be better. I do think the odds strongly favor most of the rest of the winter having a negative AO as the ssw has been pretty impressive. If so, you got to think we'll get lucky somewhere down the line and have blocking in the right place to get a moderate storm or two. Of course, I could be suffering from I wanta see snow syndrome, a common affliction here. affliction? it's the right of passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 not surprisingly, Euro says no to Friday how fare does the 500 low go north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 gotta be better. I do think the odds strongly favor most of the rest of the winter having a negative AO as the ssw has been pretty impressive. If so, you got to think we'll get lucky somewhere down the line and have blocking in the right place to get a moderate storm or two. Of course, I could be suffering from I wanta see snow syndrome, a common affliction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I think you've found the missing link! http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Its hrs 107-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wasnt the euro just a few days ago suppressing the storm for tomorrow now which will end up hitting New England. Different situation i guess. Either way...its not snowing anytime soon here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wasnt the euro just a few days ago suppressing the storm for tomorrow now which will end up hitting New England. Different situation i guess. Either way...its not snowing anytime soon here Welcome aboard the Randy boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Then maybe next year we'll have a good snow winter though even with a nino the odds still are a coin flip. At least it won't be a one sided coin this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Most of the dynamic models have the SSTA having above normal temps in the nino region by next June. I worry some about being in a neg pdo regime. They also had us in a firm weak-mod nino this winter before a complete collapse. Honestly, I would only be surprised if we slipped back to a mod nina or cooler. Neutralish or nino would be the way to go. It's just such a long way.... Can't we just get a little snow this weekend? I mean seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 wasnt the euro just a few days ago suppressing the storm for tomorrow now which will end up hitting New England. Different situation i guess. Either way...its not snowing anytime soon here While I think the euro/GFS suppressed solution is more likely than the NAM/GGEm solution the former is not a done deal as it all depends on how strong the northern stream is relative to the southern one and the models are notorious for not handling the impulses and shape of the northern vortex well in the longer time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro has -10 afternoon highs for MSP by next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 They also had us in a firm weak-mod nino this winter before a complete collapse. Honestly, I would only be surprised if we slipped back to a mod nina or cooler. Neutralish or nino would be the way to go. It's just such a long way.... Can't we just get a little snow this weekend? I mean seriously... Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro has -10 afternoon highs for MSP by next Tuesday i bet we are still 45-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 i bet we are still 45-50 we have 850 temps of around -22 next Wednesday with an afternoon max in the low 20s and the core of the cold isnt here yet..I'm sure it is over done but I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 i bet we are still 45-50 mid 20's 1pm 1/23 even hatters is at freezing then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 we have 850 temps of around -22 next Wednesday with an afternoon max in the low 20s and the core of the cold isnt here yet..I'm sure it is over done but I love it! and not a hint of the white stuff right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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