Amped Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Snow, on GFS. Part Miller B and part SW flow event, so big potential for us to get screwed. Edit: Actually very similar to January 05 but we don't get dryslotted as bad. H5 low trying to close at 180hrs but it will only help SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Snow, on GFS. Part Miller B and part SW flow event, so big potential for us to get screwed. Agreed. But it's nice to see......for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 come on guys ji canceled winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Hey fella just a quick up date got the revised GWO numbers in earlier today as HM and I have been eluding to lots of chaos in the atm this week especially and the up coming week so I take extra precaution with the GWO numbers to get the revised ones because they have been looking pretty squirrely and the revised are lagging by about 2 days and the GWO has forecast time of 14-23 days so being that some signals can only go out 14 and I'm already 2 days behind the GFS 16 days is already ahead of me LOL. Anyways, what's shaken out with the strat and GWO analogs for the last week of Jan and early Feb. As talked about the other day, the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday appears it will still be coming over the ridge while breaking the ridge down a bit and still on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Ushering in another shot of cooler air for Jan 26-29 with a reinforcement of colder air for Jan 31-Feb 2 (this one looks like a decent shot) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 2-4 with another S/W-shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to) and S/W cooler air Feb 7-11. There is a xt RW over India right now that I circled that times out to arriving Feb 4/5 which adds credence to the Feb. 5-7 time frame for a S/W moving through the East Coast. These dates were more time pertinent and I was too busy to post this, this morning. But I will post thoughts for beyond Feb. 11 on Monday when more ppl are back from the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Rest of the run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 come on guys ji canceled winter Start a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Start a storm thread Can it take over the "Winter's Over" thread? EDITED TO ADD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What happened to the heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What happened to the heat wave? Found it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 What happened to the heat wave? masco was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Found it: oof nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 actually, we'll probably wedge.. it's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS definitely looks interesting. Completely hammers Boston. After 180 turns into full fledged Noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS definitely looks interesting. Completely hammers Boston. After 180 turns into full fledged Noreaster. time to consult ji's rule of north trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I would LOVE to lock in tonight 00z GFS.....please? At least something to watch. The trend has looked better the last few runs. BUT we are a long ways from locking anything in. Euro not on board with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 time to consult ji's rule of north trends Ha! Definitely not buying it yet. It is one run and one possible solution for sure. At least enough to keep us all interested though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 time to consult ji's rule of north trends Too north for a southern slider...to North for a miller b. would we awesome to get snow I'm temps that cold. Every flake would stick. Cwg would allow nws to issue wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 WOW..... below freezing from 00z UTC Tuesday through at least the weekend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 At least something to watch. The trend has looked better the last few runs. BUT we are a long ways from locking anything in. Euro not on board with this solution. I was joking about locking anything in...... Honestly, I don't lock anything in nowadays in nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 WOW..... below freezing from 00z UTC Tuesday through at least the weekend...... That would be pretty legit. 12z MOS got DCA down to 15 earlier for Wed which is chilly for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Gotta keep an eye on the system next Fri-Sat, the 25-26. Very Miller B-ish, come due east from the OH Vly, however the EC was correctly trending the low farther south. The antecedent cold air is key...if the confluence to the north and the lllvl cold air is as strong as we think it can be next week, and knowing that the models love to scour it out too soon in the medium range, we may have a legit shot here...Saw the 00Z GFS, thought is was worth repeating. What makes this different? When was the last time we were this cold going into an event? I certainly cannot recall one last year. If the models don't trend south with the surface low track, which would be unlikely, we would at the very least see some pretty strong low level CAD/wedge potential, at least for a while to begin with, considering the antecedent airmass next week. This could be fun...... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Would have to think as modeled for next Friday/sat, it would be 15:1 ratios atleast? 8-11inches It'll probably show a whiff at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Would have to think as modeled for next Friday/sat, it would be 15:1 ratios atleast? 8-11inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Yes was just wondering if it were to happen as modeled on 0z run,would the ratios be higher then 12:1 As modeled on that particular run, temps aren't actually all that low. If for some crazy reason that run was to verify, I wouldn't expect any sort of crazy ratios.....I could be wrong though. EDIT: Yeah, no, even if that run verified (which it wont), we're not getting 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 It'll probably show a whiff at 06z No... we are not close enough for enough heartbreak. This will look good until Tuesday morning.. It will come back and be a little more exciting Wednesday night.. and then.. it will be a North storm and we get wind! Jaded! YEP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 No... we are not close enough for enough heartbreak. This will look good until Tuesday morning.. It will come back and be a little more exciting Wednesday night.. and then.. it will be a North storm and we get wind! Jaded! YEP! Or it keeps showing us getting some action, but in reality we get 18" of virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro holds onto the cold.....through 120 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 DCA might not get above 25 for a high on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 DCA might not get above 25 for a high on Tuesday. Looks to be close to that the entire week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 144 and 168..... slides just to our north but I'd assume some decent precip and plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.