CapturedNature Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Read the disco.. They bring it north and hook it left. Don't use the straight line between 48-72 The problem is that the public or civilians for lack of better term that making decisions in their communities probably aren't going to do that. They will look at the track and think that's it. The problem is the large wind field. I'm sticking with central NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think he meant 1200' above ORH...not ASL. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Messenger needs to tie down is tractor I will be fine here, we have underground power. If it hits into NJ ill be fine. Most of you are hosed Gfs up next she's processing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 that disco refers to the gfs solution. nam is south There's isn't a big difference between the NAM and GFS. NAM is slightly south, but it doesn't matter that much. If we saw an NHC track, we'd probably see less impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think he meant 1200' above ORH...not ASL. Okay---that makes a heck of a lot more sense then. Good chance I'll keep power. And even if we don't, GC receives the highest priority in the northeast for restoration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There's isn't a big difference between the NAM and GFS. NAM is slightly south, but it doesn't matter that much. If we saw an NHC track, we'd probably see less impact. NHC could actually be on the north side of their cone with an abrupt left turn. Another reason why the NHC products can be so flipping confusing to the public for NO reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The problem is that the public or civilians for lack of better term that making decisions in their communities probably aren't going to do that. They will look at the track and think that's it. The problem is the large wind field. I'm sticking with central NJ.... Darwin still gets the last laugh, on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC could actually be on the north side of their cone with an abrupt left turn. Another reason why the NHC products can be so flipping confusing to the public for NO reason. Yeah that's possible...esp if they believe the solutions that bring it near ACY and then WSW over N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I was kinda surprised to see how strong 850 mb winds were in SNE even with the Euro taking it into the Delmarva. The question of course becomes how much of those winds aloft can be mixed down to the surface. Obviously elevated areas would be favored in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC could actually be on the north side of their cone with an abrupt left turn. Another reason why the NHC products can be so flipping confusing to the public for NO reason. do you ever get tired of criticising the NHC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2815/imagescgp.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Sandy is almost starting to take on a microcane look embedded in a monster baroclinic low. Take a look at the latest vis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 My thoughts are sne is where NYC was during Hazel for Sandy. So prescient was Bruce Springsteen nearly 40 years ago singing to Sandy on the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 do you ever get tired of criticising the NHC? Depends on the day. I think all of this deserves criticism, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I wonder whose decision it was to the hurricane forecasts but non-hurricane warnings. That may not be completely up to the NHC since there's many agencies involved. Anywho...I think the media is downplaying the wind around here way too much. 06z gfs is incredible...88 kt @ 900mb over Lake Ontario with 50 kt sustained surface winds. And the sounding isn't really all that stable, either. I'd prepare for hurricane force gusts, even as far west as the southwest shoreline of Lake Ontario. Along these lines in a prior now closed thread on Sandy someone posted about how in CT anyway that deductibles are (I think the person said 20%) higher if the storm is named vs not being named. Now if damage occurs would the higher deductible rate still prevail if though its not a TS or Hurricane Warning which are only issued for NAMED storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone know why GFS / NAM are initializing some 20mb greater than what we already have? Thru 15hr 12z GFS reaches 972 mb and that's still way off from current 957 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The strength of this low is going to affect the phasing dynamics somewhat as well...we discussed this a few days ago. Because of the trajectory, a slight change in the timing of the lefthand turn could affect landfall point by a significant margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC could actually be on the north side of their cone with an abrupt left turn. Another reason why the NHC products can be so flipping confusing to the public for NO reason. Remember they say in their advisories DO NOT focus on the center path!! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone know why GFS / NAM are initializing some 20mb greater than what we already have? Thru 15hr 12z GFS reaches 972 mb and that's still way off from current 957 mb For starters GFS has a larger grid spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Guys it's possible model resolution will no allow you to see actual low pressure representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The strength of this low is going to affect the phasing dynamics somewhat as well...we discussed this a few days ago. Because of the trajectory, a slight change in the timing of the lefthand turn could affect landfall point by a significant margin. are phasing issues still in play? is there a chance it still phases later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS is definitely a bit east of 06z through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Along these lines in a prior now closed thread on Sandy someone posted about how in CT anyway that deductibles are (I think the person said 20%) higher if the storm is named vs not being named. Now if damage occurs would the higher deductible rate still prevail if though its not a TS or Hurricane Warning which are only issued for NAMED storms. I was wondering the same thing--perhaps some pressure put on by powers that be. Do I sound conspiratorial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh...the RGEM is around 69W at 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone know why GFS / NAM are initializing some 20mb greater than what we already have? Thru 15hr 12z GFS reaches 972 mb and that's still way off from current 957 mb Because they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just an observation: from the lines at the gas stations and the amount of people filling up 5 gallon jugs a lot of people are preparing if this does move to a farther north LF. Great conversations in this thread as always everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heh...the RGEM is around 69W at 48hr. Ugh. I think the worst of the worst for coastal damage were the runs that swing it way out and then back. Would back in water with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyone know why GFS / NAM are initializing some 20mb greater than what we already have? Thru 15hr 12z GFS reaches 972 mb and that's still way off from current 957 mb Global models never init tropical systems at their actual pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I still think a Long Island landfall is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It looks like 12z is making the left turn slightly earlier than 06z despite initially being a touch east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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