Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL...luckily it's the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL...luckily it's the nogaps. lol...run after run of NJ-south and now it LFs into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I believe this has updated I will be curious to see how a storm moving northward and then northeastward - then turns west - impacts storm surge. If a system coming up through the Gulf of Mexico moves due north into Mississippi - has plenty of time to pile up water - doesn't turn left or right - then I assume the storm surge would be worse. The wind field around Sandy is so large - pressure potentially so low - the ocean action must be incredible (well away from the storm). But - for storm surge itself - I wonder how a sharp left turn would change momentum of the storm surge. Also wondering just how high water could rise in the New York City area. Most of us on this forum were worried last year when they evacuated large areas that ended up not having too many problems. Will people listen this time around. I was in Europe when that storm hit - I remember many of us thought the amount of news coverage was insane (call it hype or whatever you want to call it). Granted some areas had major damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thanks for the input on the seriousness of the storm. I see what you mean regarding wind field. Still hoping for the models to jump NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You guys who are saying oh well run of the mill, do realize that a small shift in when it turns will have big impacts as to how far NE or SW it will be. There is still the possibly of LI. That is on the table. And clearly you guys are not looking at winds aloft. This is very complicated because it is all about timing of the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Headlines like this from DT....FTL. The only good thing is most of DT's fb likes are from the mid Atlantic. Most of his likes from SNE are probably wx geeks anyway. But still, while this is correct, it makes it look like less impact further north when there's NOT. *** ALERT *** 12Z GFS COMES A TAD FURTHER SOUTH .. AGAIN .. "LANDFALL S NJ ... NOT NYC NOT Long Island NOT CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol...run after run of NJ-south and now it LFs into SE MA. RGEM is way east too. So for the 12z suite it's the American models that are tucked furthest SW. Everything else is NE. EURO...TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol...run after run of NJ-south and now it LFs into SE MA. Maybe the Euro will do the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So while consensus is near ACY, do be aware of NE tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting..All the foreign models with a NE shift and US a smidge south. If the GGEM is NE...then i think we may have to consider the trend might be real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SE of 40/70, turning nw directly into SNE. i would think a LF further N is still quite possible wether it's due to the warm core nature of the storm having trouble crossing h5 heights and 1000-500 mb thickness (and resisting phase longer than models show) as numerous AFD's pointed out, or just the difficulty of turning a beast like sandy from going NE to WNW in a day or so that further north landfalls like long island are on the table i'm also becoming less skeptical of a 940 mb LP landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 subjectively speaking and coming from a guy that doesn't want this anywhere near his house: American models are west earlier in the period compared to the Canadian, NOGAPS and UK. It's really not even close within the first 24 hours. The American models get further west so there's less NE movement, faster hook further south. The RGEM is way out there compared to the GFS. NOGAPS and UK as well. Removing the NAM from the equation...it's been pretty poor. Remember yesterday the 12z model initialized the low 60+ miles too far west. That's the GFS vs all the others pending the Euro. This might get interesting in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So while consensus is near ACY, do be aware of NE tick. A ACY landall in this kind of storm still could be quite destructive on the S Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBRIEN85 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Headlines like this from DT....FTL. The only good thing is most of DT's fb likes are from the mid Atlantic. Most of his likes from SNE are probably wx geeks anyway. But still, while this is correct, it makes it look like less impact further north when there's NOT. *** ALERT *** 12Z GFS COMES A TAD FURTHER SOUTH .. AGAIN .. "LANDFALL S NJ ... NOT NYC NOT Long Island NOT CT Atleast he uses multiple models instead of "dry humping" just ONE model ::cough:: GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GGEM is over Long Island. Eastern LI at least brushing by at 2z Tuesdya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Atleast he uses multiple models instead of "dry humping" just ONE model ::cough:: GFS If someone used all of the 12z models right now....consensus isn't SNJ. We're still missing the Euro, but aside of NCEP guidance and the NAM which he despises...there's one model that's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12z GGEM is further northeast. 948 low about to hit eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Atleast he uses multiple models instead of "dry humping" just ONE model ::cough:: GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not trying to be a weenie, but I'm gonna perseverate on the init pressures and significantly lower pressure we're already observing... do people have any thoughts on where this is going? If we really are to have an additional 20 mb drop between now and landfall as all the models depict, we are talking 930s to lower 940s at landfall... The pressure gradient with a 930s-940s low vs. a 955 low as currently forecast would have significant differences for wind I would think...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Everything but NCEP guidance is targeting LI (aside of NOGAPS). NAM is usually horrible, GFS..... well would not be surprised to see the EURO adjust north. Did not expect this grr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just be careful using progressive biased models (nogaps,Canadian) in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GGEM is over Long Island. Eastern LI at least brushing by at 2z Tuesdya. lol...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL...luckily it's the nogaps. Yeah what did you say yesterday? Wherever the NOGAPs is you can bet that's where the storm won't be? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Everything but NCEP guidance is targeting LI (aside of NOGAPS). NAM is usually horrible, GFS..... well would not be surprised to see the EURO adjust north. Did not expect this grr. D What are you talking about? The GFS, nam and euro are all s hawing central NJ landfall. Stop wish casting to north. Give some reasoning or take it to banter. B the way, red taggers on here are doing a remarkable job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some of these freaking posts are ridiculous, fascination with exact land fall seems odd.In a purely tropical scenario we are reminded not to be fixated on a point, this is a transitioning system deepening acting on barolclinic forces as its approaches, with its wind field expanding lol. A devastating storm for the ct shore line especially central and western sound. Long ways to go and much can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah what did you say yesterday? Wherever the NOGAPs is you can bet that's where the storm won't be? lol Exactly but the NOGAPS is way east of this other cluster. NYC is probably still the likely target and remember last night before lights out...block to westbury LI was my thought. EDIT: IF euro is down with the GFS cluster....fine. If the EURO is NE, obviously toss the GFS/NAM. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 D What are you talking about? The GFS, nam and euro are all s hawing central NJ landfall. Stop wish casting to north. Give some reasoning or take it to banter. B the way, red taggers on here are doing a remarkable job. To be fair the Euro isn't out yet, but I agree with the premise of your post...let's wait for a reliable model to show a shift NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hi Forky You need to go sacrifice a goat in your front yard if you want the further north models to come true. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To be fair the Euro isn't out yet, but I agree with the premise of your post...let's wait for a reliable model to show a shift NE. Yeah... and if the shift is real we'll start seeing some of the tropical models shift. I'm still a bit worried that the models are going to try to phase this thing a bit too quickly... especially given how strong it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 To be fair the Euro isn't out yet, but I agree with the premise of your post...let's wait for a reliable model to show a shift NE. Man I suck at typing on the iPad. My apologies. Still thinking a central NJ landfall, maybe some room to tick towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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