EasternLI Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Speak for yourself... The Euro and GFS are basically near each other... and ensembles agree. Its not in NYC where you claim it is over and over... its in C NJ C'mon - this argument is petty. Does it really matter. We're about to get hammered. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From Facebook...just a random person not a met or anything. "As of current predictions and maps the hurricane isn't even going to hit Connecticut. Glad the grocery stores are out of food and gas stations have no gas now for nothing. Another case of big hype and little delivery." How do we stop people from thinking like this? I thought the media was doing a decent job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some posters have blinders on Are you guys trying to convince us or yourselves? We get it, it's going north. Probably be scraping Cape Cod by 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 WU Euro maps are out. They have landfall just under 948mb into C NJ. the euro and gfs landfall points are within 10 miles of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Speak for yourself... The Euro and GFS are basically near each other... and ensembles agree. Its not in NYC where you claim it is over and over... its in C NJ The OP GFS is on the southern edge of it's ensembles for sure. Two days ago the consensus track that most agreed upon was DE.... and that carried through until very recently http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al18/loop_5W.shtml If there's going to be any drift I expect it to be NE. Even at 48 hours we're looking at 50-100 mile model errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro and gfs landfall points are within 10 miles of each other Forky, why bring facts into the thread? Its WAY NE!!!!111!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some posters have blinders on I'd tell you to look in the mirror...but I am sure you will see nothing through your blinders. You are fabricating/distorting the results of the models we have all seen. LF is not NY... it is C NJ as it has been stated and shown on various models on numerous occasions. Repeating your misinformation time and time again will NOT change the facts. Additionally, I don't think it is fair to the other members of the forum. There are people that come here to find out what is going on and you are intentionally misleading in an attempt to perpetuate your personal agenda. Honestly, I find it amazing you are still allowed to post on these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NCEP keeps talking about the models initializing too far east. NAM just initialized even further east. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'd tell you to look in the mirror...but I am sure you will see nothing through your blinders. You are fabricating/distorting the results of the models we have all seen. LF is not NY... it is C NJ as it has been stated and shown on various models on numerous occasions. Repeating your misinformation time and time again will NOT change the facts. Additionally, I don't think it is fair to the other members of the forum. There are people that come here to find out what is going on and you are intentionally misleading in an attempt to perpetuate your personal agenda. Honestly, I find it amazing you are still allowed to post on these forums. can we move this to the Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From Facebook...just a random person not a met or anything. "As of current predictions and maps the hurricane isn't even going to hit Connecticut. Glad the grocery stores are out of food and gas stations have no gas now for nothing. Another case of big hype and little delivery." How do we stop people from thinking like this? I thought the media was doing a decent job. You can blame NHC maps for this, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'd tell you to look in the mirror...but I am sure you will see nothing through your blinders. You are fabricating/distorting the results of the models we have all seen. LF is not NY... it is C NJ as it has been stated and shown on various models on numerous occasions. Repeating your misinformation time and time again will NOT change the facts. Additionally, I don't think it is fair to the other members of the forum. There are people that come here to find out what is going on and you are intentionally misleading in an attempt to perpetuate your personal agenda. Honestly, I find it amazing you are still allowed to post on these forums. Great post. It is clear that he is providing misleading information of landfall locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Guys...enough of the bickering. Teck it to the banter thread if you want to do that. Although landfall in NJ is most likely, NYC/LI isn't totally out of the woods yet. We're still 48+ hours out. This is the New England subforum too so expect a little bit of bias from some posters wrt their backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Keep an eye on this buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002&unit=E&tz=STN Center should pass close to it. Down to 980 mb so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 ...HURRICANE SANDY... BASED ON THE NAM/ECMWF BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSES... THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED SANDY ABOUT 20 NM E OF THE OBSERVED 12Z POSN OF 28.8N 76.8W. THEIR CNTRL PRESSURES ARE ABOUT 10 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. THE GFS BNDRY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVED POSN... THOUGH THE GFS CNTRL PRES IS 10-15 MB HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 15z SREFs pretty much dead nuts on with 9z into S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Joe, in all seriousness, I wish you the best. I fear for those right near the watee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro ensembles went north a bit....about between Sandy Hook and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro ens mean, the euro op, the gfs ens mean, the gfs op, and the sref mean are all on top of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL my point and click only says winds of 35mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pretty big shift north on the Euro Ens..maybe 50-75 miles north which is siggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro ensembles went north a bit....about between Sandy Hook and NJ Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Keep an eye on this buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa...2&unit=E&tz=STN Center should pass close to it. Down to 980 mb so far. Do they only refresh every hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 the euro ens mean, the euro op, the gfs ens mean, the gfs op, and the sref mean are all on top of each other 15z SREFs look pretty far south...almost over delaware Bay/Cape May. 09z were maybe a tad north of them. Euro/Euro ensembles/GFS/GEFS are all within 30-40 miles of eachother though which should increase confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Huh? The ECMWF ensembles went north from their 00z run. 00z had it more near ACY, this run is close to Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So is the track pretty much set or is there a possibility of this continuing to tick north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The ECMWF ensembles went north from their 00z run. 00z had it more near ACY, this run is close to Sandy Hook. BX was question your statement of between sandy hook and NJ...did you mean NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BX was question your statement of between sandy hook and NJ...did you mean NYC? Yes thanks, lol. Was just looking for some clarification, thats all. Wasnt questioning anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So is the track pretty much set or is there a possibility of this continuing to tick north? There is still 48-60 hours before landfall...of course the track is not set. But the cone is narrowing. I think we can rule out those solutions from 24-36 hours ago that had E MA/Cape Cod as point of landfall and we can rule out the lower Delmarva peninsula landfalls. Probably now somewhere between W LI and Cape May...with C NJ probably being the favored area at the moment, but its not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 some of my friends in north jersey are getting nervous...as they should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 BX was question your statement of between sandy hook and NJ...did you mean NYC? Oh, yeah that was a typo, I meant to say NY. The way it gets to landfall is actually probably more important for SNE than the actual spot on landfall. If it takes a wide right turn and gains a lot of latitude before taking a sharp hook left, that will make it worse for the east coast of MA...if it does a more NNW motiong into Sandy Hook, that is worse for SE CT/S RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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