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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWP

STRUCTURES EXTENDING FROM THE BALTIMORE AREA SSWWD INTO S-CNTRL VA

AND ADJACENT NRN NC WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD. THE SQUALL LINE

WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN AS DEEP

SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LEADING EDGE OF

THE COLD POOL WHILE INFLOW AIR IS CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG OF

MLCAPE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF

INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN VA AND NERN

NC...ARE BOOSTING BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY. AND...WITH A STRONG

LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTING 35-45 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR...SVR

WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED

IN CONJUNCTION WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. IN THE WAKE OF THE

CONVECTIVE LINE...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC

PROFILES WILL MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT...AND REMAINING VALID PORTIONS

OF WW 642 MAY BE CLEARED FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE

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