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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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Ok just got home and would like to find out what kind of winds we had up here. I was at my girls school but upon getting home my neighbors potted plants were tossed over and one of my mini flag poles was almost ripped out of the ground. My garden is close to being flattened and it looks like I have round two coming in as I just got an alert for a new warning.

I'm out of town this week but my station only shows a wind gust of 4.0. Wind isn't accurate but it usually picks up 15 or 18 mph when the real gusts are in the 40 range. 1.36" so far since midnight. Wettest day in many months.

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I currently have a small stream in my back yard. Had a time where you could not see anything out the windows the rain was blowing so hard. When I got home at noon I was at 1.19" I am currently up to 2.20" and it is still raining. It is going to be bad up here once school lets out. Bus schedules will be a mess. Glad I pick my girls up.

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Its coming11!!11

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

125 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHEASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...WASHINGTON DC...NERN

NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 642...

VALID 181727Z - 181830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 642 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS

TORNADO WATCH 642.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO CONGEAL FROM S-CNTRL PA SWD

INTO S-CNTRL VA NEAR/EAST OF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS. THE LINE WILL

CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LYING OVER THE

PIEDMONT...WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 M2/S2

AND RICH DEEP MOISTURE. STRONGLY CURVED/LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS

PER AREA VWP DATA SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300

M2/S2...WITH A 60-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AT 1-KM AGL PER STERLING VWP

DATA...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS AND

TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH EMBEDDED

MESOVORTICES/LEWP STRUCTURES/LINE BREAKS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE

THAT THE LINE WOULD REACH THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC AREA AROUND

THE 1830Z-2030Z TIME-FRAME. ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION WITH

SVR WINDS/TORNADOES COULD EVOLVE WITHIN A NWD-SURGE OF WAA-RELATED

PRECIPITATION LEADING THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE.

..COHEN.. 09/18/2012

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