yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 nice.. 60% for 2 or more, 20% strong Nice probs and surprised at how high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH HILL VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 641... DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT VAD AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Nice little bow just se of winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm going to be sad when this yr is over. We might look back on it like we did on 08, but for a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm going to be sad when this yr is over. We might look back on it like we did on 08, but for a decade. Mod risk at 1630 from SPC to end the severe year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I'm going to be sad when this yr is over. We might look back on it like we did on 08, but for a decade. Nah, It's the new normal. The NW passage will be wide open every summer, DC will swelter in 105 degree heat, and then we can watch philly and ny cash in during the winter while we get rained on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Mod risk at 1630 from SPC to end the severe year... I thought you called the severe yr on the 8th? I'd not be surprised to get more given the pattern we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I see brightening... thin high clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I thought you called the severe yr on the 8th? I'd not be surprised to get more given the pattern we've seen. I did, I didn't expect much more heavy severe after the 8th... but I am glad to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1113 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL NOON EDT * AT 1111 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHARLES TOWN TO BLUEMONT...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROUND HILL... NEERSVILLE... PURCELLVILLE... BRUNSWICK... POINT OF ROCKS... BRADDOCK HEIGHTS... FREDERICK... BALLENGER CREEK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks pretty impressive down there, even up into eastern PA and NJ. I'm pretty close to making a decision on if I want to make a road trip south or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Watch out Front Royal BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1115 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL NOON EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Driving into work from a dr appointment and it was quite breezy, enough that my car was getting blown around a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 mod risk inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Mod risk at 1630 from SPC to end the severe year... You got it! MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...CNTRL/ERN VA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CNTRL/ERN MD...MUCH OF DE...ERN PA...WRN/NRN NJ...PARTS OF ERN NY CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 181519Z - 181645Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 mod risk inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 best storm season evar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 mod risk inbound Looks like 45 wind... maybe 15 tor? DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK AREA...AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES...LINE BREAKS...AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Looks like 45 wind... maybe 15 tor? DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK AREA...AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES...LINE BREAKS...AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION. possible.. tho 10% is already pretty high. i'd lean toward is staying 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 torcon UPPED to 5 whatever the hell that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 best storm season evar NATORS!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 possible.. tho 10% is already pretty high. i'd lean toward is staying 10%. True, guess we will see what develops in the nest hour or so to see what they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 torcon UPPED to 5 whatever the hell that means Should be higher. Why? i have no idea but it adds hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 torcon UPPED to 5 whatever the hell that means http://www.nynjpawea...s-torcon-index/ http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/storms-42/tornadoes-203/what-is-torcon-17193 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Is it just me or does it appear as though once this first line clears we are done. Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 NATORS!!!!!!!!!! Every time you post that, my mind reads it as GATORS!!!! and the Seminole in me wants to punch you. Also, its windy out. And, this tornado watch made me have to cancel my lunch date. I'm sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Every time you post that, my mind reads it as GATORS!!!! and the Seminole in me wants to punch you. Also, its windy out. And, this tornado watch made me have to cancel my lunch date. I'm sad. Easy mac FTW...works like a charm when you have to go into an active weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Easy mac FTW...works like a charm when you have to go into an active weather day. TS cafe FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Every time you post that, my mind reads it as GATORS!!!! and the Seminole in me wants to punch you. Also, its windy out. And, this tornado watch made me have to cancel my lunch date. I'm sad. punch yourself freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Is it just me or does it appear as though once this first line clears we are done. Or am I missing something? A line should form behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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