WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 lulz Anyway, temp. down to 35 with DP down to 33. Sleet accumulation holding steady around a trace with it constantly falling and melting. Another degree or two and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Really surprised with how the temps are dropping so fast. 47 at 9:30 this morning and now it's 41. Light to moderate drizzle with the winds picking up from time to time. This is a perfect day for a big pot of soup to be simmering on the stove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 is that the 12z hi-res wrf? 3km HRRR experimental which is going to become operational before too much longer from my understanding. It is a version of the WRF-ARW (3.2+) Alexander-WMONowcast2011_Final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT just cancelled the storm for the most part on his FB page, interesting arguement he makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Dropped two more degrees to 40 in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the HRRR verifies, because that is very close to what the 00z WRF-NMM had which was an extreme solution where the deformation band formed alongside the 850 hPa low as the storm rapidly intensified just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Just started pouring here on James Island, near Charleston. Still 63 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT just cancelled the storm for the most part on his FB page, interesting arguement he makes. He does need a proof reader on his dates before he posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 on a non-model related note...Looked out the window earlier this morning around 10am and had at least 30 birds feverishly pecking the ground out back..kind of got my attention as I have lived in my house for 2 years and never seen it quite like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It is pouring the rain here, temp is 40 degrees. If this intensity can't cool the air down it is going to be tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Currently 45 degrees here with rain. Woohoo. Still can't believe people are getting this hyped up over a cold rain with maybe a few flurries mixed in. Exception would be the mountains of course. Perhaps if you were in an area that do have a good chance of seeing snow with this storm, you'd be over-hyping everything like your usual weenie self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Trucks are gassed and ready to work. Just add salt and shake. Waiting on it to get here. Temp in IMBY is 42 so it is falling slowly just sitting back and waiting. I hope the best for all back yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT just cancelled the storm for the most part on his FB page, interesting arguement he makes. I'm going to have to agree with his reasoning. Since the southern Piedmont has reached saturation, this would make it very hard to temps to go lower. I know this is premature, but i'm calling this is bust for my location(Charlotte) at least. Meteogram for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nashville, TN has gone over to a rain snow mix as they continue to pick up heavy rates... Again the vast majority of the precipitation is still back in Tennessee and those calling bust so soon are likely going to be eating their words once this band shifts over into NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 DT's map you posted was dated yesterday morning at 10:30 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm going to have to agree with his reasoning. Since the southern Piedmont has reached saturation, this would make it very hard to temps to go lower. I know this is premature, but i'm calling this is bust for my location(Charlotte) at least. Meteogram for my area Stop it with this saturation. That's only relevant if you are relying on evaporational cooling, which we are not and never were for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nashville, TN has gone over to a rain snow mix as they continue to pick up heavy rates... Again the vast majority of the precipitation is still back in Tennessee and those calling bust so soon are likely going to be eating their words once this band shifts over into NC/VA. It is the same thing every freaking winter storm.... people start diving off the cliff and calling a bust way before it is over. Just sit back and enjoy the ride people and appreciate whatever winter precip you get today/tonight in what has been a horrible winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 31 degrees with moderate snow just west of Martinsville. Getting close to a half inch in grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah. Haha. Duck River, TN, it's been snowing for 2 hrs (SW of Nashville). Ground is covered in Monterey, TN (near Cookeville), 1" on the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 So it looks like DT sees neither the temps nor the moisture predicted for this storm coming to fruition After busting the 1st time, I guess they plan on busting the 2nd time! Pulaski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Phil, Thanks for stopping down and looking at our weather. I enjoy reading your posts. I'm from just across the river from you (Troy). Been down here east of Raleigh 28 years now. Keep up the good work I know a lot of folks look forward to your input. Nashville, TN has gone over to a rain snow mix as they continue to pick up heavy rates... Again the vast majority of the precipitation is still back in Tennessee and those calling bust so soon are likely going to be eating their words once this band shifts over into NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GREarth screenshot. I noticed Morganton, NC is already reporting snow.. I wonder if that's an error... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Can you stop using profanity in your comments. When you do that that, it makes your argument irrational. Ok thanks. And we did see rain between midnight and 1 hence the rapid decrease in temps until air reaches saturation around 1. You forgot the winds coming out of the north at 10-20 mph. These are the things you aren't getting. The dewpoint is not a magical wall that prevents temperatures from falling in all cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nashville, TN has gone over to a rain snow mix as they continue to pick up heavy rates... Again the vast majority of the precipitation is still back in Tennessee and those calling bust so soon are likely going to be eating their words once this band shifts over into NC/VA. The precipitation in Tennessee should shrink in coverage and consolidate into a narrow band as it moves East-Northeast across Northern NC. It will only produce an hour or two of heavy snow for any given area in my opinion. Certainly not enough to overcome temps in the mid 30's and warm surface temperatures. There will be some slushy accumulations, but even that will be gone by morning as the temperature never drops below freezing in the Piedmont unless there is clearing before dawn. Outside of that band and a few other spotty impulses, when the precipitation rates are light you will only be left with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GREarth screenshot. I noticed Morganton, NC is already reporting snow.. I wonder if that's an error... Never trust the Morganton-Lenoir Airport sensor...it's still 41 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Nashville, TN has gone over to a rain snow mix as they continue to pick up heavy rates... Again the vast majority of the precipitation is still back in Tennessee and those calling bust so soon are likely going to be eating their words once this band shifts over into NC/VA. If the HRRR that Chris posted earlier turns out to be mostly correct (which has support from the other latest models), western and south central VA should do pretty well and be in fairly good alignment with the NWS forecasts. So, I agree with you. Locally in central NC, the NWS looks to have that handled pretty well also. I think many were hoping that things would come together in this part of the region for something more substantial, as some of the modeling was indicating was a possibility yesterday. Any forecasts based on that will likely bust. We can watch radar trends for the entire rest of the day, but it looks as though there won't be a substantial deform band setting up over the Piedmont of NC. And if that is the case, then most official forecasts will probably turn out ok. At this point, I see no evidence to believe that places like the Triangle will see any more than an inch or so, if that. But I wouldn't classify that as a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Winds really starting to gust here along the escarpment, its down to 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If the HRRR that Chris posted earlier turns out to be mostly correct (which has support from the other latest models), western and south central VA should do pretty well and be in fairly good alignment with the NWS forecasts. So, I agree with you. Locally in central NC, the NWS looks to have that handled pretty well also. I think many were hoping that things would come together in this part of the region for something more substantial, as some of the modeling was indicating was a possibility yesterday. Any forecasts based on that will likely bust. We can watch radar trends for the entire rest of the day, but it looks as though there won't be a substantial deform band setting up over the Piedmont of NC. And if that is the case, then most official forecasts will probably turn out ok. At this point, I see no evidence to believe that places like the Triangle will see any more than an inch or so, if that. But I wouldn't classify that as a bust. I think we will see 2-3 hours of snow roughly after 8:00pm, probably whiten everything is my hope. I would consider this a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Currently near Pinnacle, NC (at least that's what the gps says)....flakes mixed in with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Perhaps if you were in an area that do have a good chance of seeing snow with this storm, you'd be over-hyping everything like your usual weenie self. Hey, you're probably right but I just don't see anywhere outside of the mtns. having a good chance of seeing snow with this system. If i'm wrong then i'm wrong. I don't mind eating crow and enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.