triadwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think he was hallucinating. Unless raindrops are now big, fluffy wet balls of ice, then no, I wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thanks. I really hope we can pull out a surprise! Me too- just watch for the precip in TN to pivot due east- if it starts to pivot NE substantially, we are screwed- there is going to be a very sharp cut-off, unfortunately....judging by obs. to the north and the decent NNE-NE wind component ,getting the cold air in suprisingly isn't going to be an issue- it is one of those rare scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This low is not going to be bombing out even when the energy phases offshore. Most data has it only dropping down to 995 mb and then getting absorbed into the bigger cyclone across the N. Atlantic. A few mb here are there is not going to make any difference in NC. Is there anyone at this point that still sees any possibility of the coastal bombing out any sooner than the models are forecasting, or is that pretty much completely off the table at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You guys up towards the boarder that are already reporting some mixing, Reidsville/Hillsborough, I would be pretty encouraged based on the radar over TN. Looping it maybe a few isolated bands getting up to DC, but the heaviest axis is going to be south of RIC, likely right along or just south of the VA boarder. Big time melt going on over Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hi everbody I am currently 12 miles northeast of Greensboro and it is already sleeting here. Winds out of the NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 33.6 here with light snow in Martinsville, VA. Already a dusting on the cartops and grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Getting very light snow here 3 miles NW of Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This low is not going to be bombing out even when the energy phases offshore. Most data has it only dropping down to 995 mb and then getting absorbed into the bigger cyclone across the N. Atlantic. A few mb here are there is not going to make any difference in NC. Good deal. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Hi everbody I am currently 12 miles northeast of Greensboro and it is already sleeting here. Winds out of the NNE. The NAM had GSO at roughly 10:00am (15z) as sleet, or close to it, so it seems to have a handle on the storm. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but for GSO airport code at 15z it looked like a ice profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 38/33 Light rain Temp and dew point have started dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Down to 39.0 degrees now with just a little bit of drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 12z NAM has RDU with roughly 4.5" of snow, I think you can cut that in half, so 2-3" look reasonable to me, I think this could cover the trees/grass... 9 02/19 21Z 37 35 34 13 0.18 0.02 547 554 2.3 -19.0 1009 100 -TSRA 003OVC210 0.0 4.0 12 02/20 00Z 34 32 15 14 0.48 0.00 543 551 -0.6 -20.3 1011 100 SN 000OVC243 2.5 0.4 15 02/20 03Z 33 31 10 14 0.20 0.00 540 551 -0.7 -20.6 1013 100 -SN 000OVC106 2.0 3.0 18 02/20 06Z 33 32 351 12 0.02 0.00 539 551 -1.0 -19.9 1015 100 000OVC099 0.0 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 At 10am (15z) the NAM had RDU at 41 and DPT at 36, that's exactly where we are per NWS. My house is reading 39F, I live about 10 miles west of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 SNOW SNOW SNOW <3 I am happy now. Rain intensity picked up and snow drops are mixing in east of the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 There is a strong NE wind here at 11mph just reported by a station nearby. It is cold and drizzling temp down now to 39.4 dewpoint 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Snowing in Boone http://highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_KingStreetBoone.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Now changing over to sleet. EDIT Various types of precip changing every 5mins. I will shoot some video and upload it on here in a little while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Down to 42 after being 45 an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 30 and light dusting above Linville. Hoping for it to pick up after mid day and to get some cross country skiing in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The models are showing an E-W band setting up, around or shortly after 0z tonight. The RGEM/NAM/RUC all show this, now where it sets up is up in the air, but somewhere along I-40 looks promising, could be north could be south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The models are showing an E-W band setting up, around or shortly after 0z tonight. The RGEM/NAM/RUC all show this, now where it sets up is up in the air, but somewhere along I-40 looks promising, could be north could be south... On that map it looks like central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The models are showing an E-W band setting up, around or shortly after 0z tonight. The RGEM/NAM/RUC all show this, now where it sets up is up in the air, but somewhere along I-40 looks promising, could be north could be south... I like where it depicts the highest RH values...right over my house. I'm certain it'll work out exactly like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Temp is dropping like a rock here in GSO. Down to 36F already. An eleven degree drop over the last four hours. Light rain currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 On that map it looks like central VA. Need to look at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 helicity is for severe weather. You need to change this to 700 mb omega. Need to look at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The models are showing an E-W band setting up, around or shortly after 0z tonight. The RGEM/NAM/RUC all show this, now where it sets up is up in the air, but somewhere along I-40 looks promising, could be north could be south... Another thing this map shows it the beginning of an end to the precipitation in the Foothills and the Western Piedmont as the NW flow in the mid levels start drying things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Most folks in NC and VA are not even into the insane rates that they will experience back in Tennessee... Crossville, TN has picked up .37" of liquid precip. in the last two hours. Nashville, TN picked up .18" of liquid precip. in the last hour. Knoxville, TN picked up .18" of liquid precip. in the last hour. Despite this, a lot of areas are already starting to change over across NC/VA, and those that haven't will soon have plenty of diabatic cooling via melting snowflakes. Wherever that band between Knoxville and Nasheville pivots is going to to experiencing precipitation rates between .1-.2" per hour, which given a direct 10:1 snowfall ration would be 1-2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Temp is falling as fast as the dp will allow here. Currently sitting at 42.2 with a dp of 42. We are down from a high of 50 at 7:30 this morning. Wind is increasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 As much as I hate to agree with Tullioz, he's right about the main band being north of the NC/VA border. That's becoming abundantly clear with the short term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Not surprised coming from you, but you dont need 100% humidity to get precipitation. As long as theres sufficient lift which there will be you can get precip out of it. Stop relying on models for every little parameter. As much as I hate to agree with Tullioz, he's right about the main band being north of the NC/VA border. That's becoming abundantly clear with the short term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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