Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 NAM is going to stink I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs are not meant to be used beyond 36 hours. lol Jerry I'm sure most of the mets who program the models want to jump through their computer screens when they see what some of us do with them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 lol Jerry I'm sure most of the mets who program the models want to jump through their computer screens when they see what some of us do with them! There's way too much relatively useless information for us to dissect...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think you basically just made that up. huh? All I was saying is the signal was strong for large snowfall totals somewhere. I guess we already knew that so maybe it was a waste of a post. Anyway, lets just move on to the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Srefs are not meant to be used beyond 36 hours. Yeah...a lot of 87hr SREF overanalysis. Even the NAM won't mean a whole lot yet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 new NAM abandons the GFS/18z NAM idea with that system above ND. Looks like the 12z Euro now It's really not even close to the GFS with a 24 hour forecast...one of these models is dead wrong. At 30 hr on the 18z run the GFS had the shortwave north of Montana hooking back west and actually had a closed H5 contour for a brief period. The NAM looks nothing like it...and the Euro was similar to what the NAM was showing. The wild card now becomes the energy diving over western Montana. If the shortwave north of the Intl border tries to hook up with that, it could end up looking like the SREF-type deal. But without the H5 trough north of Montana at 24 hours looking like the GFS says it will -- you won't get the GFS bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The one thing on my mind is the fact that both the GFS and euro have good scores at this range. And they are night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Revision 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It's really not even close to the GFS with a 24 hour forecast...one of these models is dead wrong. At 30 hr on the 18z run the GFS had the shortwave north of Montana hooking back west and actually had a closed H5 contour for a brief period. The NAM looks nothing like it...and the Euro was similar to what the NAM was showing. The wild card now becomes the energy diving over western Montana. If the shortwave north of the Intl border tries to hook up with that, it could end up looking like the SREF-type deal. But without the H5 trough north of Montana at 24 hours looking like the GFS says it will -- you won't get the GFS bomb. I think it's toast to be honest. The NAM just came around to the Euro. I'm not sure really what just happened/how. It's possible the energy coming down through MT can make a difference but I doubt it. Pretty glaring errors inside of 24 hours. Glad they did the data ingest off the west coast, real helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 absolutely priceless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it's toast to be honest. The NAM just came around to the Euro. I'm not sure really what just happened/how. It's possible the energy coming down through MT can make a difference but I doubt it. Pretty glaring errors inside of 24 hours. Glad they did the data ingest off the west coast, real helpful. So let me get this straight..you're doing a 180 because of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Without question. Snow starved we be. Part V by gametime. Nice to be on the track again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 This is where the old ETA can be useful, the 21Z one is not in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it's toast to be honest. The NAM just came around to the Euro. I'm not sure really what just happened/how. It's possible the energy coming down through MT can make a difference but I doubt it. Pretty glaring errors inside of 24 hours. Glad they did the data ingest off the west coast, real helpful. Are you talking about the whole threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 So let me get this straight..you're doing a 180 because of the NAM? suggested nam /euro collusion assuming you didn't read that but either way it's a jab in the face to our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Revision 1 Your greatest triumph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think it's toast to be honest. The NAM just came around to the Euro. It came around big time at 36 hours now. Pull up ewall and compare the 36 hr NAM and 42 hr GFS from 18z...really not terribly far off at all. Might have just been a timing difference. But now you have a strengthening shortwave crossing the international border in Eastern Montana at 12z Friday. The Euro had this shortwave/trough axis over Iowa already. Not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 suggested nam /euro collusion assuming you didn't read that Yeah I guess I sort of ignored that part of it. I just think it's tough to call a threat dead when you have so much inconsistency and a decent amount of spread/uncertainty in the ensembles of the GFS and Euro. This suite will be telling that's for sure. I just wouldn't get to worked up over the NAM in its extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Post the ot banter stuff in our dedicated thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It came around big time at 36 hours now. Pull up ewall and compare the 36 hr NAM and 42 hr GFS from 18z...really not terribly far off at all. Might have just been a timing difference. But now you have a strengthening shortwave crossing the international border in Eastern Montana at 12z Friday. The Euro had this shortwave/trough axis over Iowa already. Not close. These are the posts Kev hates, me too, geezus let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 21Z old ETA is now in and looks like the 21Z SREFs at 84 hours, not really anything like the Euro, that very could mean the Euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 These are the posts Kev hates, me too, geezus let it play out. I was referring to the NAM. It's useless, inconsistent inside of even 6 hours, and really not worth the time following. It came towards the Euro with the handling of the main feature coming down into the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When has the euro been so far off consensus before? The euro and gfs seem to be the two extremes right now...the most used models. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Post the ot banter stuff in our dedicated thread. I'm echoing this...OT stuff will be deleted as to keep a fast moving thread on topic, so don't take offense from here on out...you've all been warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When has the euro been so far off consensus before? The euro and gfs seem to be the two extremes right now...the most used models. Odd. I think the Euro is the consensus. The other globals look more like it, except maybe the UKMET, which is between the GFS and Euro. the GFS is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 These are the posts Kev hates, me too, geezus let it play out. The main point of the post was to illustrate the point that at 36 hours, the Euro was already hundreds of miles farther south and east..and progressive..with the northern stream feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the Euro is the consensus. The other globals look more like it, except maybe the UKMET, which is between the GFS and Euro. the GFS is all alone. What else besides the GGEM is like the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 21Z old ETA is now in and looks like the 21Z SREFs at 84 hours, not really anything like the Euro, that very could mean the Euro is wrong. Nice, I am really hoping we get a RIC to Maine special. Lots of snow lovers would be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the Euro is the consensus. The other globals look more like it, except maybe the UKMET, which is between the GFS and Euro. the GFS is all alone. Perhaps of the op versions. In reality the ensembles of either are not terribly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 When has the euro been so far off consensus before? The euro and gfs seem to be the two extremes right now...the most used models. Odd. When looking at the op runs, yes but the smoothed out means are not too far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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