Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Must be me but I think the NAM looks pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Looks kinda like a December 18-19 2009-2010 Synoptic Setup at H5. Maybe in the end, the true solution could be 50 to 100 miles NW of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Must be me but I think the NAM looks pretty nice. Just for comparison's sake, if you take a look at 90h on the dgex, and 84h on the NAM, the precip shield is maybe 50 miles north of 18z. Wouldn't put much stock into though, seeing as its extrapolating the NAM and using the 18z dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I do wish it had a more SW/NE component to it...would not hurt to have 1 even affect the whole metroplex, not that I mind New Jersey getting some good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Must be me but I think the NAM looks pretty nice. Agree Steve, comparing it to 12 and 18z I think it made small steps towards a better solution ......slightly slowing down the ns and a bit quicker ss, did not miss by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Must be me but I think the NAM looks pretty nice. It's nowhere near the 12z/18z solutions of the GFS, that's out the window early, but that's not bad either as the GFS was not the best for me here on the CP anyway. It has a speed change down deep which helps to still keep us on the edge of the game, but it'll be tough in the NAM depicted pattern to get much more than a Cape scrapper. (again based on the NAM). We'd need the energy in the northern stream to dig/be slower...otherwise the flow over us is the W/SW to ENE that's been advertised on the miss models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A few things, major timing differences with southern stream energy, GFS is about 12+hours quicker than NAM, EURO. Around 00z Sunday GFS really speeds up Southern energy while Euro holds it back. Also how often does the NAM nail down a solution 84 hours out? One thing is for sure, this storm will be well north or well south of where the Nam now predicts for 12z Sunday. Another interesting thing to look at is hour 84 on NAM isn't as bad as you would think from a surface perspective if you look at sim radar, the precipitation shield is moving North East with heavy precipitation getting into south central jersey by 12z Sunday, so a much closer call than it looks on this "lousy" Nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this ain't gonna happen, channel 7's already calling it the storm that could rival halloween's...ginxing and media sensationalism FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A few things, major timing differences with southern stream energy, GFS is about 12+hours quicker than NAM, EURO. Around 00z Sunday GFS really speeds up Southern energy while Euro holds it back. Also how often does the NAM nail down a solution 84 hours out? One thing is for sure, this storm will be well north or well south of where the Nam now predicts for 12z Sunday. Another interesting thing to look at is hour 84 on NAM isn't as bad as you would think from a surface perspective if you look at sim radar, the precipitation shield is moving North East with heavy precipitation getting into south central jersey by 12z Sunday, so a much closer call than it looks on this "lousy" Nam run. Those two statements though don't follow the same logic. At 5h it's not the best, it's either too fast in the north or not fast enough in the south to get this all the way up the coast. So the surface/sim radar is cool, but meaningless. If the NAM nails the 5h features at 84 hours to within 100 miles it'll be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 this ain't gonna happen, channel 7's already calling it the storm that could rival halloween's... Really? This morning they said dry/storm offshore? Pete's blog said its gonna be offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A few things, major timing differences with southern stream energy, GFS is about 12+hours quicker than NAM, EURO. Around 00z Sunday GFS really speeds up Southern energy while Euro holds it back. Also how often does the NAM nail down a solution 84 hours out? One thing is for sure, this storm will be well north or well south of where the Nam now predicts for 12z Sunday. Another interesting thing to look at is hour 84 on NAM isn't as bad as you would think from a surface perspective if you look at sim radar, the precipitation shield is moving North East with heavy precipitation getting into south central jersey by 12z Sunday, so a much closer call than it looks on this "lousy" Nam run. Yea and looking at 300 mb and how 8 H is not scooting east, this is not a done OTS run by any means but alas it is the NAM which yesterday had tomorrows vort max on LI , that's off the Delmarva now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really? This morning they said dry/storm offshore? Pete's blog said its gonna be offshore... he changed his tune @ 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey Jon, it's Joe. How is the weather gig going for you so far? I def see some h500 shortwave improvements this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 he changed his tune @ 10 Wow, not sure what made him do that LOL...absolutely no new guidance besides maybe the 18z GEFS or the srefs? Weird...but hey, hope he's right. He probably saw that no other station was going for it, and figured he could be the first to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Those two statements though don't follow the same logic. At 5h it's not the best, it's either too fast in the north or not fast enough in the south to get this all the way up the coast. So the surface/sim radar is cool, but meaningless. If the NAM nails the 5h features at 84 hours to within 100 miles it'll be the first time. Exactly. What I'm saying is that the 5h features are not great, but with 84 hours to go who's to say that this won't change. Maybe speed up (better for us) or even slow down (not good). But what I'm saying is even with this poor 5h set up look at the precip shield it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 he changed his tune @ 10 I just watched the 6PM video online (10PM not there yet). Interesting that he changed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sim NAM radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Will already explainfed how many crappy 5 H setups have led to big snowstorms. Not getting that stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey Jon, it's Joe. How is the weather gig going for you so far? I def see some h500 shortwave improvements this run. joe from western? great working at NEWS12 as a freelancer! yes this run shows some potential I think especially in hours 48-60. Much better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Will already explainfed how many crappy 5 H setups have led to big snowstorms. Not getting that stand. Well I didn't say they were crappy...I just said they didn't have to be closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Exactly. What I'm saying is that the 5h features are not great, but with 84 hours to go who's to say that this won't change. Maybe speed up (better for us) or even slow down (not good). But what I'm saying is even with this poor 5h set up look at the precip shield it spits out. NAMs attrocious at 500mb beyond about 24 or so hours. The only significant thing I took from it was the change towards the Euro handling north of ND in the early stages. Beyond that, it's toast and meaningless, JMHO. There will be a time when it nails one of these, I don't think this is that time. I'm interested to see what the GFS does in the next 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Back at my laptop. Checking out the NAM ... big improvements. It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just watched the 6PM video online (10PM not there yet). Interesting that he changed it last thing i'll say about this to avoid getting OT, but i didn't see his earlier f'cast so i guess it didn't change much from then...the first thing i saw when i turned it on was that we could get a storm that rivals halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Actually its probably raining at BWI at 12z Sunday despite a good chunk of the profile below freezinf above the surface. Shows how crappy the airmass is down there umm, NO 1.8" and 0 visibility at 84 hrs with snow http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Compared to earlier GFS runs the 0z does two things: 1. faster with the energy coming into BC overnight 2. Not as impressive with the system diving towards ND (less ridging between the s/ws...so there's no opportunity for the s/w coming towards ND to tighten up...it'll be faster this run) Those two changes, speaking specifically of just those two features is a move towards the Euro. I'll let the rest of the run play out as those are the two features I was most interested in..back to watching TV as that drama is more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is it handling the southern stream comparedb to earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Compared to earlier GFS runs the 0z does two things: 1. faster with the energy coming into BC overnight 2. Not as impressive with the system diving towards ND (less ridging between the s/ws...so there's no opportunity for the s/w coming towards ND to tighten up...it'll be faster this run) Those two changes, speaking specifically of just those two features is a move towards the Euro. I'll let the rest of the run play out as those are the two features I was most interested in..back to watching TV as that drama is more interesting. Lol, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tylertheweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not sure if anyone from the 1st topic on this storm posted this, don't have the time to go through that. From the HPC after all the 12z models came in: ..SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT... PREFERENCE: ECMWF THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE NAM BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF...WHILE THE UKMET IS SLOW AND AMPLIFIED...WITH ITS GREATER AMPLIFICATION POSSIBLY AN INDICATION OF ITS STRONG BIAS AT LATER TIME FRAMES. THUS...THE UKMET IS DISCOUNTED. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...WHILE PLAUSIBLE...IS CONSIDERED LESS LIKELY THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS NARROWER DATA ASSIMILATION WINDOW AND ULTIMATELY QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES. (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd) In my advanced forecasting class, my professor discussed this storm, one main issue with the 12z GFS was the longwave and how short and funky it was, he claims that the atmosphere is uncomfortable when you have a short/funky longwave. He also discussed the issues concerning the cut off low in the southwest and how bad the models do trying to predict the energy coming out of it. After over 30 years of experience, he is not sold on this storm. To him too many issues. To me, the GFS is trying to phase, when it is not phase until later. Not buying it, and until otherwise (aka, a high pressure is in Southern Canada - Ontario or Quebec), no big storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Well I didn't say they were crappy...I just said they didn't have to be closed off. Semantics in light of the thread talk. It's crappy to them because it is not closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 How is it handling the southern stream comparedb to earlier? Unfortunately a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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