weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I would like the 18z gfs to be exactly the same as 12z this morning or 00z last night. Either works for me. I'm just happy to see a run like that for hour 96, even if the euro doesn't agree. The gfs would be like 12-15" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I literally just watched someone skip out of the office after he said how "psyched he was that it was mid- February and that we have pretty much gone the whole winter without a major snow storm". I'm not going to get my hopes up so many days out, but the back of my brain is alwways going to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW 15z sref mean at 87hr is amped...pretty warm too verbatim...again FWIW. Man you love those SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Just saw the Euro ensemble spaghetti charts and I think more than half of them are a hit. The OP run is near the flat end of the envelope...so its encouraging. I think I posted yesterday that about a third of the ensembles were pretty good and 2/3rds were't...it def seems to be trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Man you love those SREFs LOL...people posted every other piece of guidance (including the RUC )...so I figured might as well post the srefs. If it was surpressed I probably wouldn't have mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I literally just watched someone skip out of the office after he said how "psyched he was that it was mid- February and that we have pretty much gone the whole winter without a major snow storm". I'm not going to get my hopes up so many days out, but the back of my brain is alwways going to hope. those are the times I wish I had a paint button, just dump a bucket of paint on their heads at the click of a button. Here's your fooking sunny and dreary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think he means because it's pretty amped up and he wants better snow/banding etc. Yeah, but that's looking at one model verbatim. We don't know if this is heading to ACK or Bermuda, and right now the mean of all model guidance is OTS and eastern MA is smoking cirrus. I want this showing amped up even if I was getting sleet verbatim. At hr96, we just want signs of everything coming together. Worry about banding and QPF and temp profiles inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks in e MA shouldn't mind if the GFS backs off a bit. +1 there is a fear that Euro, once it flips, will flip into a coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 right because the GFS is what verifies regardless. The GFS backing off = no storm for New England, which yes includes your backyard. 96 hours out is not the time for IMBY posts Dude, the post was half joking....one thing I have noticed since you have started forecasting is that you can be a hair condescending at times. You seemingly think you're omnipotent from time to time....the difference between a budding meteorologist and someone a bit more seasoned like Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 those are the times I wish I had a paint button, just dump a bucket of paint on their heads at the click of a button. Here's your fooking sunny and dreary That or the day after he's skipping through the meadow from a 50F February day he gets dumped on with 24" of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, but that's looking at one model verbatim. We don't know if this is heading to ACK or Bermuda, and right now the mean of all model guidance is OTS and eastern MA is smoking cirrus. I want this showing amped up even if I was getting sleet verbatim. At hr96, we just want signs of everything coming together. Worry about banding and QPF and temp profiles inside 48 hours. I know..lol, I just think he was commenting on the run. Anyways, should be an interesting 24-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah DT is starting damage control as Sam said I think...I posted if he thought this had a chance to come into New England and he asked me which part....earlier this week he said no snow north of S PA/DE I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I know..lol, I just think he was commenting on the run. Anyways, should be an interesting 24-48 hrs. Glad everyone didn't miss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dude, the post was half joking....one thing I have noticed since you have started forecasting is that you can be a hair condescending at times. You seemingly think you're omnipotent from time to time....the difference between a budding meteorologist and someone a bit more seasoned like Will. I really don't think that way, and sorry if I come off that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dude, the post was half joking....one thing I have noticed since you have started forecasting is that you can be a hair condescending at times. You seemingly think you're omnipotent from time to time....the difference between a budding meteorologist and someone a bit more seasoned like Will. I kind of agree. Sam is very smart but has an attitude thats less than welcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I really don't think that way, and sorry if I come off that way. NBD....I know you mean well and it has more to do with age than persona. Will has said he was like that in college, too...not a bad analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Guys...we've been lenient with the OT chatter outside of the banter threads during the February lull, but let's try to keep posts on topic through this potential threat. Thanks mucho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Dude, the post was half joking....one thing I have noticed since you have started forecasting is that you can be a hair condescending at times. You seemingly think you're omnipotent from time to time....the difference between a budding meteorologist and someone a bit more seasoned like Will. I kind of agree. Sam is very smart but has an attitude thats less than welcoming. Not seeing that guys, Sams cool, Just looked at Euro Ens, sort of has that 96 appeal, huge envelope storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 very very similar to the GFS. Subtle differences in the short term become huge down the road. Notice the clear bifurcation in the forecast by hr60. The GFS subsumes the vortex lobe, and the NAM does not. Consequently the NAM is unphased and suppressed. So massive sensible weather differences from very small disagreement early on. Not that it's really worth analyzing the NAM at hr 84, but is part of the reason it remains flat based on the strength of the west coast s/w? GFS has a way stronger s/w with a 32s^-1 vortmax around Portland whereas the NAM just has a few weak in shortwaves..one in Montana, one in Washington, and one in Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think the operational runs are still pretty useless at the moment...given the ensemble spread, but hopefully over the next 2 runs they should become a lot more important. This isn't a case either where we are waiting for an operational run to show a hit either...we've had some hits and some scrapers already on the OP runs. Right now we are at the mercy of some very difficult s/w interactions that cannot be predicted well at all. The speed of the northern stream continues to be the biggest issue and the one that would likely cause this to be a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Mid atlantic is melting down bad. Never thought I'd come here for sanity. That being said god bless euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 NBD....I know you mean well and it has more to do with age than persona. Will has said he was like that in college, too...not a bad analog. I kinda get in a "zone" when we have these storm threats. I'm really not that kinda guy with an ego and all. Anyway, 18z GFS rolling out soon. Let's see if we're getting snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I kinda get in a "zone" when we have these storm threats. I'm really not that kinda guy with an ego and all. Anyway, 18z GFS rolling out soon. Let's see if we're getting snow haha I agree and the fact that you didn't lash out and were open to constructive criticism is a great illustration of that. The EURO ens seem like yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 At least the airmass is not putrid. It's not the best, but preceding this possible deal, is a shot of cooler and drier air. I wouldn't look at surface temps and get discouraged right now, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Much more realistic GFS inbound. A nudge faster than the 12z with the energy coming into the BC coast in the morning. Somewhat less ridging in advance. This should be a more reasonable compromise. Compromise as the low not getting close to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I wonder if we can see this sort of trend into a moderate hit instead of a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Not sure what to make of the 18z run yet, through hr36. Some small differences over southwest Canada. Otherwise pretty similar to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 For reference sake, the 18z GFS is treating s/w 6 differently. Not sure how this will play out down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 This looks like an even better and faster phase to me than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It's funny reading Sam and Messenger as each successive chart rolls in - One's clearly taking the "why going wrong rout", the other takes the "why it's still good rout" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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