dendrite Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 They definitely are better looking than the op, and rather significantyl so. Still not good enough to get QPF into SNE from what I can tell...but it's better than the op. Still a very large spread even at hr 90, at 500mb. The mean has 0.10" to the MA/NH border and 0.25" to the S Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Ncep can cancel the gfs cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Though that didn't work on the threat last weekend. Ya, just a little. Last time it was competing s/w in the northern and southern streams. This time its too many eggs in the basket. I'm not so sure a smoothed mean will help much in this scenario just like the last. Models prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nam looks much more in line with the gfs with the energy off the washington coast than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well it appears we have some more positives this afternoon. I'll state again..If the GFS wins this..I will never bad mouth it again and will wear a tee shirt that says I love the GFS at the next GTG...Mainejayhawk will provide it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Nam looks much more in line with the gfs with the energy off the washington coast than the euro. Trough extends from Hudson's bay to the Baja. Boom Suck it to those that mock the ruc. Did a better job than the euro at 5h at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Uh oh... snowNH has two accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Why do you guys keep giving that kid so much grief ? He is old enough to be your father Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well it appears we have some more positives this afternoon. I'll state again..If the GFS wins this..I will never bad mouth it again and will wear a tee shirt that says I love the GFS at the next GTG...Mainejayhawk will provide it for me That's what we said about the NAM after 1/12/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 NAM is oh so similar to the GFS. Subtle differences in the placement and alignment of s/w features, but it's all there. A few tweaks one way or another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I thought the nam looked good early on, however to my eye its seems the ns is much quicker, lots of confluence and screaming westerlies off the ma coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Well it appears we have some more positives this afternoon. I'll state again..If the GFS wins this..I will never bad mouth it again and will wear a tee shirt that says I love the GFS at the next GTG...Mainejayhawk will provide it for me Oh, do I pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That's what we said about the NAM after 1/12/2011 Since I'm one of the biggest haters/non users/bashers of the GFS it will be painful enough..but if we get crushed this weekend...my predicition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 very very similar to the GFS. Subtle differences in the short term become huge down the road. Notice the clear bifurcation in the forecast by hr60. The GFS subsumes the vortex lobe, and the NAM does not. Consequently the NAM is unphased and suppressed. So massive sensible weather differences from very small disagreement early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 The NAM successfully phases s/w 5 and 2 into 4. We want 3 to join the party (that's the vortex lobe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Sam is actually nude, when he posts about these vortmaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Sam is actually nude, when he posts about these vortmaxes. Hey, anything to have these shortwaves get a little friendlier with each other. But we need that vortex lube, I mean lobe, to join the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Sam is actually nude, when he posts about these vortmaxes. well he has to be so that he can prepare his map...duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Sam is actually nude, when he posts about these vortmaxes. The NAM successfully phases s/w 5 and 2 into 4. We want 3 to join the party (need the vortex lube) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Hey, anything to have these shortwaves get a little friendlier with each other. But we need that vortex lube, I mean lobe, to join the party I bet the 18z GFS backs off somewhat and weenies will become innies once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 who cares LOL Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I think Sam is actually nude, when he posts about these vortmaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks in e MA shouldn't mind if the GFS backs off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 I bet the 18z GFS backs off somewhat and weenies will become innies once again. ...and the 00z GFS comes back with it. Tough forecast, and I'm glad I don't need to start sending stuff out until 72 hours. By then, it should be much clearer. I mean, it could be much clearer at 00z tonight, when all the models drop any inkling of a snowstorm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks in e MA shouldn't mind if the GFS backs off a bit. I sure don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ...and the 00z GFS comes back with it. Tough forecast, and I'm glad I don't need to start sending stuff out until 72 hours. By then, it should be much clearer. I mean, it could be much clearer at 00z tonight, when all the models drop any inkling of a snowstorm lol. you are doing a fine job on this one Sam, appreciate the thoughts. Euro Ens coming north is a big sign. this is starting to pique my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 FWIW 15z sref mean at 87hr is amped...pretty warm too verbatim...again FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 ...and the 00z GFS comes back with it. Tough forecast, and I'm glad I don't need to start sending stuff out until 72 hours. By then, it should be much clearer. I mean, it could be much clearer at 00z tonight, when all the models drop any inkling of a snowstorm lol. Yeah I have the northeast starting Friday through Sunday so I'm watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 Folks in e MA shouldn't mind if the GFS backs off a bit. right because the GFS is what verifies regardless. The GFS backing off = no storm for New England, which yes includes your backyard. 96 hours out is not the time for IMBY posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 right because the GFS is what verifies regardless. The GFS backing off = no storm for New England, which yes includes your backyard. 96 hours out is not the time for IMBY posts I think he means because it's pretty amped up and he wants better snow/banding etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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