CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Damn, the GFS is still ripping snow here at 12z...this model battle comes down to the wire tonight. At least the 1-3" should cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 appears to be a situation where we throw away all models and make it a nowcast storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At this point in the forecast, are only looking at something significant north of Worcester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS looking better for me, but my p/c whent from a total of 2-4 to no accumulation expected. Not really any surprise here, wasn't expecting much more than a coating to an inch or two. Glad to see up north is still 4-8 and a chance for more round 2 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At least the 1-3" should cover it. Yeah until the NAM verifies and I end up with 6 mangled flakes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If I wake up to 1+ snow tomorrow...I'll be happy. Could be all washed away by the time I get up tomorrow too or I might get nothing besides zr/pl ...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where would be better to go tomorrow morning... Union or Norfolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah until the NAM verifies and I end up with 6 mangled flakes, lol. GFs is cold damn, looks like the Euro now, mm5 tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah until the NAM verifies and I end up with 6 mangled flakes, lol. I hope not. I just don't like seeing them NAM and SREF like that, so close out, but we have a good model battle here. You could make cases for the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The GFS has my 2m temp at 26F 00z tomorrow with a 020 wind. The NAM has me 32F and at 050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where would be better to go tomorrow morning... Union or Norfolk? I'd have to think Norfolk. They will probably get a better push of precip before the warm layer comes in...their extra elevation and distance from the marine influence might serve them better for icing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if the models might be blowing it on a potential near warning ice storm scenario amid these Advisory cut outs. 1) Regional temps are sliding back toward 0C, while DPs range from 21-29F across all sites and unofficial 'tweeners. Wet bulb temperatures are probably closer to 29 than 33F this time, due to the fact that pressures are unbalanced on the high side N of the region (due to pp anomaly associated with polar high). This sort of scenario is always under anticipated. 2) The lowest grid is likely not accurately handled regardless of model type when we input saturation into that - ageostrophic flow is likely too weak amid the guidance types once this air mass saturates. Even if not very observed, with higher pp N, it is going to be very difficult to erode out the llv cold. The way that works is, cold dense saturated, homogenous lower boundary layer air mass will flow from meso high toward meso low in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere, and this will set up below the inversion at ~ 100mb up. Above that, baroclinic events transpire as though the column on the bottom were not there. If there were not high up there I'd say we get 32-33F along Rt 2 with temps apprroaching 50S of the Pike by mid way through the event. But given to the observation that BL resistence is stacked heading N and set up nearly ideally for ageostrophic drain, I am wondering if we 're missing the boat on this. Hard to think outside the box sometimes with all these pretty model graphics to digest every 3 to 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Man I hope the GFS is right with that 522 ULL rotating farther south for Friday night. Jeff, Eric , Mike and others in Maine, tremendous 850 inflow up there tomorrow, 6-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if the models might be blowing it on a potential near warning ice storm scenario amid these Advisory cut outs. 1) Regional temps are sliding back toward 0C, while DPs range from 21-29F across all sites and unofficial 'tweeners. Wet bulb temperatures are probably closer to 29 than 33F this time, due to the fact that pressures are unbalanced on the high side N of the region (due to pp anomaly associated with polar high). This sort of scenario is always under anticipated. 2) The lowest grid is likely not accurately handled regardless of model type when we input saturation into that - ageostrophic flow is likely too weak amid the guidance types once this air mass saturates. Even if not very observed, with higher pp N, it is going to be very difficult to erode out the llv cold. The way that works is, cold dense saturated, homogenous lower boundary layer air mass will flow from meso high toward meso low in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere, and this will set up below the inversion at ~ 100mb up. Above that, baroclinic events transpire as though the column on the bottom were not there. If there were not high up there I'd say we get 32-33F along Rt 2 with temps apprroaching 50S of the Pike by mid way through the event. But given to the observation that BL resistence is stacked heading N and set up nearly ideally for ageostrophic drain, I am wondering if we 're missing the boat on this. Hard to think outside the box sometimes with all these pretty model graphics to digest every 3 to 6 hours. If the GFS is right more snow than ice but if you half the difference it is an ice storm. Lots of dynamics, yet another full moon week blockbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 How do you think this is matching up with your thinking from a week ago? In general, excellent. On a large scale, everything is shaping up in line to what was discussed a week ago. Details-wise, I was anticipating a raging rain and wind storm with the option for an inch on the front and back ends. So this has been a pleasant development since then, with the expectation for a little more wintry appeal ... the stronger confluence and high pressure to our north, and the southern s/w staying separate from the large trough digging into the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the GFS is right more snow than ice but if you half the difference it is an ice storm. Lots of dynamics, yet another full moon week blockbuster. Makes me wish I still had my spot in Bethel. Where the heck is Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Phil, man that 516 and deepening ULL almost wants to bowl under like you wished, much better but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Makes me wish I still had my spot in Bethel. Where the heck is Kevin? He's fine. He's been browsing anon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if the models might be blowing it on a potential near warning ice storm scenario amid these Advisory cut outs. 1) Regional temps are sliding back toward 0C, while DPs range from 21-29F across all sites and unofficial 'tweeners. Wet bulb temperatures are probably closer to 29 than 33F this time, due to the fact that pressures are unbalanced on the high side N of the region (due to pp anomaly associated with polar high). This sort of scenario is always under anticipated. 2) The lowest grid is likely not accurately handled regardless of model type when we input saturation into that - ageostrophic flow is likely too weak amid the guidance types once this air mass saturates. Even if not very observed, with higher pp N, it is going to be very difficult to erode out the llv cold. The way that works is, cold dense saturated, homogenous lower boundary layer air mass will flow from meso high toward meso low in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere, and this will set up below the inversion at ~ 100mb up. Above that, baroclinic events transpire as though the column on the bottom were not there. If there were not high up there I'd say we get 32-33F along Rt 2 with temps apprroaching 50S of the Pike by mid way through the event. But given to the observation that BL resistence is stacked heading N and set up nearly ideally for ageostrophic drain, I am wondering if we 're missing the boat on this. Hard to think outside the box sometimes with all these pretty model graphics to digest every 3 to 6 hours. well we do have about 18 pages of discussion about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This NAM run also shows a convective wall of graupel going to white out snow with probably CC and CG, Friday mid day - NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 He's fine. He's been browsing anon. pseudo transient -NAO helping here? You do well with the follow up too, should be a fantastic wintry weekend for you, congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Now that BOX updated their map to hug the 18z nam can they update it back to match the 18z gfs?Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Now that BOX updated their map to hug the 18z nam can they update it back to match the 18z gfs?Please? I'm loving that map. Ice storm be damned. 33.3/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Man I hope the GFS is right with that 522 ULL rotating farther south for Friday night. Jeff, Eric , Mike and others in Maine, tremendous 850 inflow up there tomorrow, 6-12? Yeah steve, The GFS hits friday pretty hard, It is something that will have to watched the next few runs, Classic model battle going on here, GFS and Euro are cold and Nam and Srefs are warm and on there own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm loving that map. Ice storm be damned. 33.3/23 I'm confused by that map...not sure why they like you're area more then SW NH...but never know I guess. I guess they must feel that the NAM is on to something...still not sure why they had you at 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am hoping this storm is a nice colder surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 pseudo transient -NAO helping here? You do well with the follow up too, should be a fantastic wintry weekend for you, congrats Dendrite I'm not impressed with Friday yet. I think that belongs to upstate NY toward YUL. Maybe there's some GS/PL or FZRA/RA or even a rumbler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Come back to the five and dime lil' WOTY I don't recall seeing BOX have a blank map out before, then putting out another.... crazy times This year, I hug the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm confused by that map...not sure why they like you're area more then SW NH...but never know I guess. I guess they must feel that the NAM is on to something...still not sure why they had you at 6-8. GC is magical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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