CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There is definitely a warm layer near 800mb on the euro. But still seems like it tries to giove ORH like 2-2.5" or so taking it into account. I like to think the warm tongue sometimes is underplayed, but the precip races in too. Looks like extreme nrn areas of mass get good advisory snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The true definition of a quiet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It won't let me upload the euro pics for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just happy to see snow at this point. Hopefully we can squeak out 1-3'' here...they were pretreating the highways earlier today. You're alive!!! NH knows how to do highways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You still owe me for Dec 23 (jk) I am thinking ice/sleet will be the bigger issue. Depends on how quick the precip sets in. 1-2am would make me happy I'd expect 1-3" of snow followed by ice at this point...if we come in a little snowier, then nice surprise, but I don't think we should expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just happy to see snow at this point. Hopefully we can squeak out 1-3'' here...they were pretreating the highways earlier today. Dom, what's up? I see your back, hubbdave was asking where you were lately. Good luck with snow IYBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm not sure if it's this new platform, but never had that problem before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'd expect 1-3" of snow followed by ice at this point...if we come in a little snowier, then nice surprise, but I don't think we should expect it. Ripping ice 25 kts NE winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well I live in Shrewsbury. The highest el is like 850' which could still be much icier then my 475' highest elevation is actually 755' , center is ~680' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I know this probably isnt the best thing to compare but the 12z nam sim radar is alot slower then what the radar is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ripping ice 25 kts NE winds? Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain. Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Dom, what's up? I see your back, hubbdave was asking where you were lately. Good luck with snow IYBY Ha...just been lurking mostly with the lack of interesting weather. Haven't really had anything worth posting about weather-wise since October. I just want enough to keep things white for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'd expect 1-3" of snow followed by ice at this point...if we come in a little snowier, then nice surprise, but I don't think we should expect it. Winchendon similar to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nevermind. I is smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Will, verbatim what is the euro looking like for here? Also, what's your thinking? Advisory snow there I would go with. 2-4"/3-5" or so assuming you are above 500 feet which you said you were at one point. Lower down might have a bit of BL issues to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 highest elevation is actually 755' , center is ~680' I actually typed out 800' at first and changed it. English is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Starting to look liek good icing is on the table for the hills in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 fwiw the ruc is way off also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain. Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there. With the Euros tendency to over do surface temps it certainly is close for you elevated guys for a good ice event if you do not dump snow for 3 hours, lots going on in your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks. I'll just go with $5,000 to be safe. I can't do much from my phone but donators shouldn't have any ads. I'll look when I get home unless Scott sees this first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Winchendon similar to that? A little trickier for them north of rt 2 by the NH border. They could crack 3" there. I remember they got close to that in the pre-Thanksgiving storm while I saw about 4 mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain. Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there. seems like one of those marginal icing events where mby is 32.7 for 4-6 hours, while most icing is limited to ~600'+. Meanwhile its rotting at 31 at ORH and 1/8" glaze. regardless I wont expect much more than an inch of snow and a thin glaze down in the lowlands lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTW, those maps go from 06z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTW, those maps go from 06z to 18z. They were kind of small and hard to see......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 They were kind of small and hard to see......lol They were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I can't do much from my phone but donators shouldn't have any ads. I'll look when I get home unless Scott sees this first. oh - same goes for me. i just figured this was a new thing. lots of ads popping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 looking at radar and looks like moisture will get here sooner than models are predicting. looks to be here just after midnight? any other thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 They were? thanks for posting those, click to animate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTW, those maps go from 06z to 18z. That looks like it could be ripping aggregates here for a few hours centered around 09z...probably just flipping over around 11-12z. The weenie maps on wunderground gave me like 5" of snow...but I think those are run from Kevin's basement. It does have that classic icing signature for ORH hills though after the flip...it has that finger of below freezing sfc temps coming down the spine to near Hubbdave or just south...it usually doesn't extend it far enough south...resolution issues once we start narrowing the ridges. If we can keep the sfc wind to the left of 060, then it could be prolonged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 think it looks like big big ice for wa wa. frozen weenie ridge thing of beauty on wv imagery http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html polar high elongated above maine tommorrow wedgin down very dry dews 4 interior wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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