Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's guidance like anything else. Part of the reason why you shouldn't throw all your eggs in one basket with this. We know what the biases are. it does some things we've come to expect with these southern streamers. if you wanted to throw some weight to the seasonal trend, you'd say it's got that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 This is a classic case of Kevin adding more confusion than assistance. Garbage fyp Merry Christmas Kev. I think the GFS will likely be a tad warm in this kind of setup and the NAM will likely be too cold. 10-20mi on either side of the Rt2 to I-90 corridor in MA will be the schweet spot on this one. Pete may end up with the most imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's probably not seeing the cooling going on as much as it should, but it's still toasty as it is furthest north of all guidance right now. Yeah since yesterday afternoon...GFS and NAM have been the two most extreme models on each end of the spectrum. Seems like the Euro might be the way to go as it was in between with a bit of hedge toward the beefier GFS. The only thing that might make someone tend toward colder solution is the trend of the meso models this morning...its possible the Euro could slightly follow that trend. Given the cooling mechanisms at work here the lower resolution globals would probably not see it as well as the mesos...but that does not mean the meso models are overdoing this cold...they have done it before in SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Hence why I said no matter what it does. It shouldn't be used or factored in by anyone making a forecast. We are better off as a met community without it. You're right. Definitely is better to go with the NAM which typically shows so much accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Regardless, that is a ton of qpf on the GFS...maybe 6" for Hubbdave? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 As a professional no-nothing, anti-weather-knowledge-guru, I am not going to hold my breath too long on this, but thanks for the good reading this morning. That one clown map actually got me excited to some degree, but I am not going to cancel my spring time bulb planting this weekend because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's guidance like anything else. Part of the reason why you shouldn't throw all your eggs in one basket with this. We know what the biases are. If it had any past experiences of nailing things like this..or was known to be able to accurately predict these types of low lvel cold drains..then your argument would have some weight.Cite me one example where it's outperfromed the meso models in a case like this,,again maybe they are a tad too cold,,so we are allowing for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You're right. Definitely is better to go with the NAM which typically shows so much accuracy Remember when you ruled out snow over the weekend and tossed the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah since yesterday afternoon...GFS and NAM have been the two most extreme models on each end of the spectrum. Seems like the Euro might be the way to go as it was in between with a bit of hedge toward the beefier GFS. The only thing that might make someone tend toward colder solution is the trend of the meso models this morning...its possible the Euro could slightly follow that trend. Given the cooling mechanisms at work here the lower resolution globals would probably not see it as well as the mesos...but that does not mean the meso models are overdoing this cold...they have done it before in SWFEs. Yeah agreed. There are things arguing for both trends. Southern stream s/w and se ridge which would argue for a possible nwd shift, but at the same time, the nrn stream s/w and compression of the thermal field would go along with the NAM and SREF. It's a battle really. I could see a GFS solution, but with maybe a lean to the euro thermal field...something like that makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS not as gung ho with the inverted troff snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah since yesterday afternoon...GFS and NAM have been the two most extreme models on each end of the spectrum. Seems like the Euro might be the way to go as it was in between with a bit of hedge toward the beefier GFS. The only thing that might make someone tend toward colder solution is the trend of the meso models this morning...its possible the Euro could slightly follow that trend. Given the cooling mechanisms at work here the lower resolution globals would probably not see it as well as the mesos...but that does not mean the meso models are overdoing this cold...they have done it before in SWFEs. as always ride the Euro like a wild pony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Scott my whole office is sitting here in anticipation. An guess for just south BOS ? Maybe coating to an inch if we are lucky. We might do better than that on Saturday of some of the models are correct in producing a band of -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 That would be great for news headlines Saturday. Instead of seeing frisbees thrown around and news anchors commenting on house nice it is outside, top stories would be people scraping off the cars and idiots sliding off the roads. Merry Christmas. I'd feel comfortable with a 2-4" call for here right now. This is another time where I'd want to be Pete, looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 If it had any past experiences of nailing things like this..or was known to be able to accurately predict these types of low lvel cold drains..then your argument would have some weight. Cite me one example where it's outperfromed the meso models in a case like this,,again maybe they are a tad too cold,,so we are allowing for that. I just said I could see a GFS solution but with a lean to the euro thermal field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS not as gung ho with the inverted troff snow It's still there and looks pretty good to me for being 3 days out. Still a lot of higher RH hanging back at H85 in advance of that vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I just said I could see a GFS solution but with a lean to the euro thermal field. What would your thoughts be if the Euro was slightly colder this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 as always ride the Euro like a wild pony until it hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 What would your thoughts be if the Euro was slightly colder this afternoon? You first have to see why. It could be two things....either dynamics, or a shift south. I think you are assuming that I'm calling for all rain for you..lol. I'm not..just saying to not totally dive into the srn trend just yet. We've seen this played out before. Seeing the NAM and SREF before any other guidance doesn't make me giddy..that's all. That's why we as Mets wait for the other guidance to come in. I'm not saying it's right or wrong...there are reasons to both as I explained earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 We'll be smoking cirrus It would be pretty cirrus, though. Take the GFS and run!!!! 33.9/26. Out for a quick walk before the rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's still there and looks pretty good to me for being 3 days out. Still a lot of higher RH hanging back at H85 in advance of that vortmax. Yeah its still there, Was comparing it to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 It's probably not seeing the cooling going on as much as it should, but it's still toasty as it is furthest north of all guidance right now. What would be chagriningly funny (not a word...) is if it were right on QPF but correcting colder because of the usual headaches surrounding resolution in the boundary layer and critical thickness depths, and viola. 14" of warning snow and very littel leading coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM clown map fail. I wonder if these aren't calibrated to have snow when the surface is > 32F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For the higher elevations that will see snow..this probably will be a Currier and Ives snow. Not much wind and a wet snow would stack on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM clown map fail. I wonder if these aren't calibrated to have snow when the surface is > 32F? Puts me square in the 0-1" zone. Awesome!! Time to post the GFS. Walk cancel--drizzle has started. 33.8/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For the higher elevations that will see snow..this probably will be a Currier and Ives snow. Not much wind and a wet snow would stack on the trees. What are you thinkin for 1k over here? Ski area "summit" is 1.1k, their base is 550. Would be nice to get even a couple of inches of replenishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM clown map fail. I wonder if these aren't calibrated to have snow when the surface is > 32F? I'll take my 10" and uh run? hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Regardless, that is a ton of qpf on the GFS...maybe 6" for Hubbdave? lol. The more important question is whether Ray could see 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS is a disaster for those to the south. That said the GFS is a lot faster than even the 6z GFS so that tells me there's still something amiss. Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'll take my 10" and uh run? hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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