ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Is this gonna start as rain and flip to snow..or start as a mix? It probably depends where you are...the further south its more likely to start as rain or mix as the cold air is just getting there as the precip comes in. Further north it might just start as straight snow in the higher spots with a lot of dry air in the BL and MLs allowing for evap cooling. A 30 mile shift could be a big deal though...esp south of the pike...so we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You're excited for a questionable event. I'm not following you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I think most of us are, Scott, as evidenced by the 'event thread'. Meager accumulations for the vast majority of us, but enough to give most a Christmas look. Very important. Well you are virtually a lock, but it still looks kind of walking the line south of the Pike and up towards me. I would like to see how 12z roles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well you are virtually a lock, but it still looks kind of walking the line south of the Pike and up towards me. I would like to see how 12z roles in. A lock for meager accumulations. Hopefully the 12z run answers questions rather than throws new wrenches to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A lock for meager accumulations. I won't be meager for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I won't be meager for you. Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 A lock for meager accumulations. Hopefully the 12z run answers questions rather than throws new wrenches to consider. I like the way you go about getting your backyard answers........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this. I would not be shocked if you had more than that. You may be in a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I won't be meager for you. The man's qpf fetish will not be supressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this. It may be the only snow you see for awhile, Enjoy it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this. There's a shot at someone getting a 4 or 5 spot out of this...everything would have to go right, but its certainly possible. All guidance has really beefed up the qpf and dynamics as the system is more robust than previously progged. But either way, an advisory event is still pretty solid should someone end up with that...especially given how bad the pattern has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I like the way you go about getting your backyard answers........ Lol. I'm merely making inferences from the input of knoweldgeable folks on what appears to the uneducated me to be the likely outcome. 30.3/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I like the way you go about getting your backyard answers........ Yeah he's been good about that lately...very sneaky..lol. He'll throw in QPF comments as an indirect way to get answers and to slowly untie the noose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 There's a shot at someone getting a 4 or 5 spot out of this...everything would have to go right, but its certainly possible. All guidance has really beefed up the qpf and dynamics as the system is more robust than previously progged. But either way, an advisory event is still pretty solid should someone end up with that...especially given how bad the pattern has been. During the dark times of Kevin's fall into the abyss, I had posted he should avoid focusing on pattern and just look at the opportunity in a specific event. Patterns can be awesome and things not materialize. Meanwhile, unlikely things can happen. Just look at October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Kevin, I just think you are really on the edge of getting maybe an inch or 3 inches. But, you'll be happy either way. I think there are questions till in CT so I'm not that excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yeah he's been good about that lately...very sneaky..lol. He'll throw in QPF comments as an indirect way to get answers and to slowly untie the noose. Unlike some others.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The NWS is thinking 1-2" thurs night for NW interior. I think it's too early to be talking numbers like that in an official manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM would make many people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve. The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Okay, 2-3" might categorize as more than "meager". But my point was to reenforce the minor nature of this. You're on the verge of having a very wintry holiday scene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve. The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels. Happy to see that overall signal hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I still think we'll have to watch the inverted trough potential...there's actually a few possibilities...the NAM is showing very good RH even up through 700mb hanging back all day on the 23rd and overnight into the 24th before drying a bit...there could be some lingering steady light snow in eastern areas from that...before a break and then maybe more enhancement as that s/w comes in from the west later on Xmas eve. The other scenario is the s/w from the west clears out the earlier stuff sooner and then tries to re-enhance stuff on Xmas eve...but the placement of that feature would mean a lot in terms of where any stead stuff sets up. The 850s behind the initial stuff on the 23rd are like -8C to -10C so i think snow growth could occur even in the relative low levels. The GFS and NAM like the inv trough potential, and the euro is that scenario that has a little -SN on Saturday. You can see how the GFS and NAM like the s/w coming into NY state on the 24th, but the euro kind of shears it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The NWS is thinking 1-2" thurs night for NW interior. I think it's too early to be talking numbers like that in an official manner. Does that appear in a forecast or just an AFD? I think I saw it in the AFD. I think they're concerned about the dryer air to the north eating up the northern edge of the precip shield. My qpf fetish aside, that's been my concern on this at least as early as yesterday morning. Seeing the northern bumps had assuaged some of my concern with that, but the AFD had those concerns come roaring back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Does that appear in a forecast or just an AFD? I think I saw it in the AFD. I think they're concerned about the dryer air to the north eating up the northern edge of the precip shield. My qpf fetish aside, that's been my concern on this at least as early as yesterday morning. Seeing the northern bumps had assuaged some of my concern with that, but the AFD had those concerns come roaring back. You are a treat...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You are a treat...lol. LOL. Is that so off the wall? Since BOX is throwing it out there in the AFD, I don't think I'm totally out of line with that. I'm totally psyched that your and others' opinions on this are different. I'm kinda proud of myself that my concern was considered in the AFD. As a novice, it's nice to see that. And I hope I--and BOX--are wrong and I score with a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LOL. Is that so off the wall? Since BOX is throwing it out there in the AFD, I don't think I'm totally out of line with that. I'm totally psyched that your and others' opinions on this are different. I'm kinda proud of myself that my concern was considered in the AFD. As a novice, it's nice to see that. And I hope I--and BOX--are wrong and I score with a solid event. Well the whole thermal gradient will be compressing south, so I suppose there is a small chance of that happening, but I really wouldn't worry about that...jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well the whole thermal gradient will be compressing south, so I suppose there is a small chance of that happening, but I really wouldn't worry about that...jmho. I suspect confidence/agreement one way or the other will increase signifcantly with today's runs. 31.0/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Kevin, I just think you are really on the edge of getting maybe an inch or 3 inches. But, you'll be happy either way. I think there are questions till in CT so I'm not that excited yet. Could be..but with the way the NAM is trending colder and sensing the south push of the cold air..I think by the end of this it snows to the coast to stick. This seems more likely to shift south than north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 09z SREFs just came in a bit compressed and colder...that would be some good news for those living on the edge like Kevin and maybe Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SREFs may have ticked south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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