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December 23rd light snow potential


ORH_wxman

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I decided to create a separate thread for the 12/23 potential as we are close enough now that it looks like someone will get something out of that...whether its CNE or SNE still remains to be seen...or maybe both.

The Christmas potential can stay in the other thread. This will be discussion on the 12/23 threat.

Right now the BL is going to be marginal so the higher terrain in the interior will be favored...esp N of the MA/CT border as the colder air is a bit deeper the further north you go. Most likely it will be a 1-3" event but I suppose there is a small threat at a 4" jackpot somewhere....the GFS, NAM, and Euro are all in fairly good agreement on these ideas.

We will still have to watch for some inverted trough lighter snows on Christmas Eve lingering as another shortwave moves over the region from the west.

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  • Why are you not including all high terrain?

It might be everyone in the high terrain, but there's a chance that the southern hills in RI/NE CT struggle a bit...especially early in the event as the BL warmth will be strongest down there initially. It might not be a big deal either, but we won't know until we get closer.

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It might be everyone in the high terrain, but there's a chance that the southern hills in RI/NE CT struggle a bit...especially early in the event as the BL warmth will be strongest down there initially. It might not be a big deal either, but we won't know until we get closer.

Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm

No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance.

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Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm

No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance.

Well even the GFS gave you like an inch. The northern hills probably have the best shot with the deeper cold, but the BL warmth could be overplayed a bit...not sure. We'll have a much better idea probably by tomorrow night.

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Ok that makes me feel better lol.. If the NAM is right in thermal profile I think all the hills see a couple inches and hopefully most of SNE can grab some with the heavier vv's. Euro was very close here and if you factor in it's warm 2m temps bias would prob be a 32 wet snow..The GFS quite honestly I always factor out whether it's cold or warm

No matter what happens we've got something to track and it sure as hell is nice to have a couple shots at a White Xmas since when we talked at the GTG we were thinking less than 20% chance.

LOL, you are such a Nervous Nelly. You'll probably see some snow.

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I guess the concern I have in general..and not just imby..is if this does tick a little north. If that were to occur, we probably would shot the precip down before it gets cold enough for anything meaningful. I can't totally toss the GFS solution right now, but hopefully it's a little too far north.

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Well these would indicate the NAM is warmer than the GFS but you were saying the exact opposite.

Like Phil and Brian said, the NAM is a product of dynamic cooling. But the GFS imo kind of stinks for people like Kevin. Here is why. This will be a system I think where closer to the actual low center, there will be a more compact, but intense area of lift, whereas further away..it may not be as intense, but a more broader area of light to moderate values of lift I think. Sorry for the run on sentence BTW.

Anyways, here is why you don't want the GFS. I know it can run warmer this time of year and I agree it can torch 850 a lot more than it should. However notice in this graphic, SNE has good lift overall, but it's probably just switching over to snow in nrn CT..maybe down to Kev. I'm also trying to take into account the warm bias.

post-33-0-03658200-1324430705.gif

But look at 12z, the precip is just about gone with the mid level deformation and associated weak return way up in NNE. SO just when he is ready to rock, the precip is gone.

post-33-0-68086700-1324430736.gif

The euro is further south with all this, and is much better for areas near and south of the Pike. However, I'm just showing why you don't want this much further north.

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