skierinvermont Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 blown snow is useless to me.. would rather ski on rocks and stumps with a ****ty pair of skis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lots of cirrus for you this winter. Heavy, heavy cirrus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Unfotunately it's 12/5/05 not 12/09/05 It can't be 12/5/05; that pattern features no resemblance to those annotations I provided. Let's check that again. The annotations I provided or 12/09/05 taken from the NCEP libraries page, then compared to these interesting NAM solutions. In any event, a difference here is that unlike 12/09/05 there is much weaker antecedent CAA; such that when this jet max rides up and over the ridge - like it did in similar fashion in 12/09/05 - it "may" encounter less thermal packing (a key component in why that system evolved locally the way it did). I could see the ice thing because the cold is shallower this time. Back then, when the nose of the jet hit the coastal waters up under LI it induced a strong counter inflow jet in the 850mb approximation, which packed the thickness gradient very tightly into a ribbon against the deeper cold. This caused the frontal slopes to tilt very upright; such that UVM was hugely assisted then by latent heat release. It tapped directly into that evacuation aloft, causing a massive pulse of lift that punched the topopause and induced a "fold" event, too as a furthering consequence. The 700mb and 850mb level circulation centers were consequently collocated; when that happens the frontogenic forcing was/is uncharted, too - hense the fantastic snow fall rates. I was living in Acton at the time. We really didn't get much wind there ... heavily protected by the cold, but boy did it snow, equal in magnitude to the historic snow bomb of Dec 23, '97. I recorded 7" in an hour in both. Incidentally, both came in at 15". '05 edges it though because it fell in less time. Anyway, let's get that intensity of a S/W pulse to verify first... If so, it is not impossible that the model(s) are underperforming cold because of reasons I mentioned before. Just a thought on this latter factor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 00z gfs is more amped at 5h thru 42 I think it looks like crud. Congrats Euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lots of cirrus for you this winter. maybe you can have a rare year where you beat Buffalo...it's possible...especially the way things are going right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't. We are often on the same team anyway vs the Mid-Atlantic...but I couldn't care less if Stowe, VT gets whiffed 8 times in a row because they will blow 9 feet of snow when I get 20" of natural snow. Powderfreak frowns on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 blown snow is useless to me.. would rather ski on rocks and stumps with a ****ty pair of skis Its rare anyway that NNE completely skunked when SNE does well....they usually do well. So I don't give a flying flip about NNE in any of these patterns because I know they will get theirs eventually...there's some minor exceptions like '05-'06. But most of the time they cash in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 gfs is going to be a strung out pos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You are no fun. Ski country gets snow anyways..whether it is natural or man made. They'll live up there...who cares about the resorts. Besides...many people base going up there on how their back yard is doing. If the yard is covered in white..sometimes they are compelled to go, so let it snow. Like I don't give a flip if powderfreak gets 9" of powder..they can make 39" of powder with their snow guns if they get whiffed....I'm sorry for the glades folks...but I don't care. They don't care if we get 10" of cement either. Its mutual. We'll hope we can cash in. Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The GFS looks very similar to the 12z Euro at H5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think it looks like crud. Congrats Euro op? Yeah it's flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No it hasn't. I understand this pattern...I'm just trying to defend the shots when I get pessimistic which is a rare thing. I got blasted in mid-November (and Scooter too) when we flipped the switch and said this would be really ugly through week 1 in December. I'm a very big optimist...but I do understand the aura surrounding the snow/cold forecasts despite that. I felt this pattern stunk through early Dec and we had to deal with some backlash...and that will continue until it gets better...its getting better now but theres a shot this could be short lived. But at least we have some better cold and an outside snow threat. But I'm just defending myself against the weenie attacks. They come in all shapes and sizes. It's to the point where I feel like there isn't much worth of talking about the extended. If anything, I'm probably guilty of talking about the specifics a lot more than I should.....simply because it has been so boring. I think we all love talking about weather because we have a passion for it, but when we discuss how bad the pattern is...it doesn't fly with some people and there are jabs here and there. The thing is, we have all been pretty much on point with this pattern so the outcome speaks for itself. I hate being a downer and talking about a sucky pattern...but it is what it is. Hopefully something works out later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The GFS looks very similar to the 12z Euro at H5 now. I wonder if philly will get accumulating snow thursday? I think this might be the most widespread "threat" across the entire subforum group that will produce almost nothing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 maybe you can have a rare year where you beat Buffalo...it's possible...especially the way things are going right now. What did BUF have in 07-08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't. We are often on the same team anyway vs the Mid-Atlantic...but I couldn't care less if Stowe, VT gets whiffed 8 times in a row because they will blow 9 feet of snow when I get 20" of natural snow. That's all well and good, for the resort. People that live in northern vermont still love snow. Like phil said, being up in vermont when there is bare ground sucks, especially when you snowmobile,snow shoe, plow for a living,etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The GFS looks very similar to the 12z Euro at H5 now. Flatter and further east, To progressive,If its not going to snow, Then let it be cold instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Would it make you feel more confident if I falsely said "SkiMRG gets 6" and ORH gets an inch of slop and the rest of the CP gets nothing"? Its just not that simple. If it was then you would average 200" of snow per year and I would average 150" and BOS would average 100". This is a longshot but I hope it works out. No, I only want to hear what you, Scooter and the other mets here truly see. I just think if precip of note makes it into SNE accumulating snow will probably be confined to the elevated distant interior. i.e. here. While I'm not a trained met I have been tracking Winter Storms since before you joined the planet and I have picked a few things up along the way.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow GFS is flat as a pancake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What did BUF have in 07-08? 103.8"..strangely they had 2 major synoptic snowstorms that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That's all well and good, for the resort. People that live in northern vermont still love snow. Like phil said, being up in vermont when there is bare ground sucks, especially when you snowmobile,snow shoe, plow for a living,etc So do people in interior MA at 1,000 feet. Doesn't mean I should wish we don't get snow in favor of N VT...unless you can convince me otherwise. Its a fruitless argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 as long as it can get really cold this weekend haha. Euro remains king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think it looks like crud. Congrats Euro op? yeah I haven't been following closely enough, it looks like to get a storm we need the energy to hang back in the southwest longer. The 00z brings it out faster and sends it into the shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 gfs is going to be a strung out pos. Good. Skierinvermont and powerfreak can have fun rippn' down the slopes on test tube sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I want all the snow. Sorry. I'm happy to share but not at the expense of my totals. Don't try to rationalize why people needed it to make a living as if I'm going to feel guilty. No one feels guilty if a 94 yo up there slips on the ice and dies. And I don't either. I want snow...today, tonight, tomorrow always. Rationalizing it is not helpful because my snow lust is not rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol at GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Poof I've enjoying taking two seconds to look at the operational models while coming back from taking a wizz. Accomplishes the same. That's a beefy storm on the GFS. Heavy Heavy disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I want all the snow. Sorry. I'm happy to share but not at the expense of my totals. Don't try to rationalize why people needed it to make a living as if I'm going to feel guilty. No one feels guilty if a 94 yo up there slips on the ice and dies. And I don't either. I want snow...today, tonight, tomorrow always. Rationalizing it is not helpful because my snow lust is not rational. I don't care if all of VT, NH and ME go bankrupt...I want snow and it's not my fault because I don't control the weather...if I did, they'd have gone bankrupt years ago and the best resorts around would reside in Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow GFS is flat as a pancake. I don't know about flat as a pancake ...but, what is interesting is that the jet energy is stronger (slightly) on this run at initialization compared to the 12z run's 12 prog, yet it winds up looking odd passing through the MV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I want all the snow. Sorry. I'm happy to share but not at the expense of my totals. Don't try to rationalize why people needed it to make a living as if I'm going to feel guilty. No one feels guilty if a 94 yo up there slips on the ice and dies. And I don't either. I want snow...today, tonight, tomorrow always. Rationalizing it is not helpful because my snow lust is not rational. Amen. I will never fall of the "Morals" snow guilt. Garbage. I hope everyone does well...but if its him or me, I will choose me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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