ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yea, mixed would have been better, but we are talking about a primative day 4 map on a weekend. Yeah, to us obviously we take it with a grain of salt, but you'd be surprised how stupid the public is...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well he probably doesn't have any icon for mixed in his graphics program..... Yea, mixed would have been better, but we are talking about a primative day 4 map on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It was a collective "you"...not personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yea, mixed would have been better, but we are talking about a primative day 4 map on a weekend. It never fails...tomorrow I will hear someone talk about a snow and/or ice storm for Thursday. Somehow on that 11/17 storm where there was forecast for a coating of snow after rain...people were talking about a few inches. It's like they look for the highest snow forecast and triple it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I guess it is if you want to be a technical douche and semantic someone to death, but the ORH hills are in no way climatologically akin to the cp...we all know that. Well obviously...from a met standpoint...you go by where CAD sets up which is where the coastal influences gets overwhelmed by the land influence. But I wouldn't expect a weenie to know that...except the knowledgeagle amateurs like you and many others. But the average ignorant weenie won't get that impact line. But even most ignorant weenies know W 495 is the line because that is what our TV mets have always said which is correct....going back to the 1950s...they do it based on real climo patterns....so eventually over the years 495 became a distinct line for CAD and the CF a bit closer like 128 which was another line....before the detailed models, it was identified by the local mets from trial and error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It was a collective "you"...not personal. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well he probably doesn't have any icon for mixed in his graphics program..... LOL or the text box to change three letters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah, to us obviously we take it with a grain of salt, but you'd be surprised how stupid the public is...LOL The average laymen probably would not even know to distinguish between pure ice and a mix, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't understand the meaning of that West of 495 stuff I hear on forecasts out of BOS such as WBZ Accu-wx I get on the radio. 495 bends totally ...so whats west of one part is well east of another part of it. Well obviously...from a met standpoint...you go by where CAD sets up which is where the coastal influences gets overwhelmed by the land influence. But I wouldn't expect a weenie to know that...except the knowledgeagle amateurs like you and many others. But the average ignorant weenie won't get that impact line. But even most ignorant weenies know W 495 is the line because that is what our TV mets have always said which is correct....going back to the 1950s...they do it based on real climo patterns....so eventually over the years 495 became a distinct line for CAD and the CF a bit closer like 128 which was another line....before the detailed models, it was identified by the local mets from trial and error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't understand the meaning of that West of 495 stuff I hear on forecasts out of BOS such as WBZ Accu-wx I get on the radio. 495 bends totally ...so whats west of one part is well east of another part of it. They usually say ":North and West of 495" which basically means anyone outside 495 from the pike northward. Maybe slightly south of the pike in S ORH county where there is still elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like the 0z NAM is going to come in less amplified than 18z...out hr 60 its 50 miles east of 18z and is less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The average laymen probably would not even know to distinguish between pure ice and a mix, anyway. omg it's hailing outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Thw ooz Nam looks rather weak so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 omg it's hailing outside I want to STRANGLE every person I hear say that, especially at LSC when there are 150 met majors and 1250 complete morons LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is much slower as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 They usually say ":North and West of 495" which basically means anyone outside 495 from the pike northward. Maybe slightly south of the pike in S ORH county where there is still elevation. If you really want to be safe, go with west of the apex of the loop....often times being simply n...as in near Lowell, is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At 72, still pretty amplified compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is much slower as well Welcome to reality, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Welcome to reality, NAM. Still out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM probably would be a big hit in the hilly interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 at 84, pretty threatening to interior SNE...but its the 84h NAM lol Almost goes ENE from 78 to 84..probably slides out south of SNE, but again its the NAM past 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If you really want to be safe, go with west of the apex of the loop....often times being simply n...as in near Lowell, is not good enough. In some cases, saying ASH to ORH is a better line...but 495 is often good...but agreed. There are times when it matters. Sometimes like 2/24/10 when its more like AFN to ORH...but that wasn't even true in 12/7/96...in 12/7/96 the ASH to ORH line worked well...ASH got 13"...but Lowell got like 6" of slush...and you got like 3-4" of slop before the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The nam is a disaster of a model. 18z nam at 78hr had it about to start raining here. 00z nam at 72hr and the precip is in Virginia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The nam probably would not be that bad if you could extropalate it out past 84 hrs, Its colder here then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hah... The NAM is giving some love to Knox, NY this run ...... At 72, still pretty amplified compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 In some cases, saying ASH to ORH is a better line...but 495 is often good...but agreed. There are times when it matters. Sometimes like 2/24/10 when its more like AFN to ORH...but that wasn't even true in 12/7/96...in 12/7/96 the ASH to ORH line worked well...ASH got 13"...but Lowell got like 6" of slush...and you got like 3-4" of slop before the heavy rain. Try 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hah... The NAM is giving some love to Knox, NY this run ...... lol yes it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is furthest west of the guidance but of course it's well outside of it's wheelhouse. I'm pretty confident of a significant event. I just don't know if it will be cold enough. My gut sways rain and plenty of it east and south of a PWM-ORH line and possibly good snows on the other side. I could pick up an inch of slop on either end to win my bet but I doubt it's anything more qt this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is furthest west of the guidance but of course it's well outside of it's wheelhouse. I'm pretty confident of a significant event. I just don't know if it will be cold enough. My gut sways rain and plenty of it east and south of a PWM-ORH line and possibly good snows on the other side. I could pick up an inch of slop on either end to win my bet but I doubt it's anything more qt this point. Where does it have to snow an inch? Logan? Not sure that would happen, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is furthest west of the guidance but of course it's well outside of it's wheelhouse. I'm pretty confident of a significant event. I just don't know if it will be cold enough. My gut sways rain and plenty of it east and south of a PWM-ORH line and possibly good snows on the other side. I could pick up an inch of slop on either end to win my bet but I doubt it's anything more qt this point. Agreed. Need the EURO to cave to confirm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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