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November 23 - Storm Threat


powderfreak

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It's definitely more suppressed and colder. 850 0C here for the first several hours of the precip. and never gets above about 1C from here to southern NH.

The 12z euro looks like it might give me a 20 minute period of SN/IP on the overnight Tuesday before the switch to rain. Exciting.

18z nam looks about the same as 12z so far...

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The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us.

80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7".

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It's definitely more suppressed and colder. 850 0C here for the first several hours of the precip. and never gets above about 1C from here to southern NH.

Yeah it is colder. I made that post at 3:10 so that was based on hour 24. It keeps trending, just needs to move another 100 miles south for me lol. MHT- just north of Dendrite is where the tough forecast is right now I think. Anywhere North of Dendrite and into Maine/NNH is pretty good bet for 6". I think MHT- north of Dendrite is where there could be a brief period of snow over to all rain or could be 4"+. South of MHT probably won't be seeing anything more then a brief SN/IP at the onset.

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The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us.

80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7".

And we get the sloppy inch instead if we're lucky lol.

Perfect opportunity for this to all collapse S at the last minute.

weight_lift.gif

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The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us.

80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7".

Yay, a colder rain.

Its all just noise for us.

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Yeah I was just saying that to myself. This storm is going have a slanted temp profile and your changeover line will be N of the 850 0C isotherm.

Usually a crude way to do it in these setups is like the -2C or -3C 850 line...obviously if you have a map with the 850-700 1540m thickness line on it, its better, but that is not very common on a lot of these plots.

Deeper in winter, you can have like -8C at 850 and still be ripping sleet.

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Usually a crude way to do it in these setups is like the -2C or -3C 850 line...obviously if you have a map with the 850-700 1540m thickness line on it, its better, but that is not very common on a lot of these plots.

Deeper in winter, you can have like -8C at 850 and still be ripping sleet.

i think kevin's familiar?

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