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November 23 - Storm Threat


powderfreak

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84 hour NAM... American models are still warm for snow in NNE except Vim Toot area. Good layer of sleet and ZR though south/under the H85 0C line.

coming closer to some of those EURO and GGEM runs... that vort digs pretty far south and comes out well south of SNE. There's only so far north that low can go with the vorticity evolving as the models have it.

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Thought it was time to get a specific thread going for Wednesdays storm. Unfortunately for most, it looks as thought this thing will track to far west to give any appreciable winter precip to the area. Looks like the SLP will track over the area, warm sectoring most of us. Maybe some sneaky wrap-around snow showers on T-Day will brighten some spirits around here.

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I guess if we have a strong enough H to the N but there is nothing preventing it from lifting out allowing a more northward progression of the storm.

The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside.

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The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside.

Models are only going to be able to shove this storm into the cold air so far before it shift the system ENE, 06z Gfs was weaker with the low and had shifted it SE on its last run, We will see if this is a trend or a burp run

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The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside.

Yeah, there is definitely some confluence over SE Canada per the models. I'm wondering if it's being overdone on the SREF's there. Looks to me like the H scoots off to the E as the storm rolls in and tracks into the weakness of that ridging to the N. I think it may come down to the overall intensity/phasing that occurs. The weaker the better obviously.

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Models are only going to be able to shove this storm into the cold air so far before it shift the system ENE, 06z Gfs was weaker with the low and had shifted it SE on its last run, We will see if this is a trend or a burp run

this run has been a lot more amplified through 48 hrs.. i think the 6z gfs was a blip.. nothing else is quite that flat.

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Yeah, there is definitely some confluence over SE Canada per the models. I'm wondering if it's being overdone on the SREF's there. Looks to me like the H scoots off to the E as the storm rolls in and tracks into the weakness of that ridging to the N. I think it may come down to the overall intensity/phasing that occurs. The weaker the better obviously.

I was either thinking SREFs, or something where the WF snakes into RI and se mass up to BOS or something....secondary rides along that front.

GFS now shoves this into CNE.

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this run has been a lot more amplified through 48 hrs.. i think the 6z gfs was a blip.. nothing else is quite that flat.

Yes it is, Low tracked further north and west, Mtns and northern maine would get smoked verbatium with some mixing. Its actually, The furthest north of any run so far as it pushed the 540 thickness well into central maine

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Yup. Mountains get plastered, powderfreak gets naked, J. Spin jumpstarts his voyage to 200" and the ski resorts rejoice. I'm cool with that.

Something other than what we have right now would be nice, haha. I'm at our Mountain Ops building looking at weather stations that are showing 48F at 1,600ft and 36F at 3,900ft... those are just ugly temps haha.

Even some frontside snow/IP would be welcomed. Something to break up the torches.

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You may well get dumped this week, but given the disaster after that... any snow will begin a rapid meltdown. Probably best not to even consider opening the mountain for a good two weeks.

Something other than what we have right now would be nice, haha. I'm at our Mountain Ops building looking at weather stations that are showing 48F at 1,600ft and 36F at 3,900ft... those are just ugly temps haha.

Even some frontside snow/IP would be welcomed. Something to break up the torches.

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The NAM is the only model that really gets the northern stream involved.

Amazing how it drops the S/W into southern WV while the GFS keeps it along the ST Lawrence. And still the surface low position isn't that much different.

Edit: GFS is a lot faster at the surface. Although the track along the front and oinly about 100 miles NW of the NAM.

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