dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haven't checked soundings, but it appears the NAM is a few inches on the front end with quite a thumping in Coos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haven't checked soundings, but it appears the NAM is a few inches on the front end with quite a thumping in Coos. Yeah our 12km WRF has a monster thumping for Coos into interior Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 0z nam is slightly south and colder then 18z, 546 dm thickness is still south here @ hr 60 and it was into central maine @ hr66 on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haven't checked soundings, but it appears the NAM is a few inches on the front end with quite a thumping in Coos. Looks like it would start as some SN/IP down to maybe MHT/CON? Hour 54 looks like it would be cold enough to start as some brief SN/IP in MHT. Of course, that's 1am Wednesday so no one would even know it happened as its washed away by the time they get up. Looks like it would flip quickly in those areas up to maybe a few inches in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Looks like it would start as some SN/IP down to maybe MHT/CON? Hour 54 looks like it would be cold enough to start as some brief SN/IP in MHT. Of course, that's 1am Wednesday so no one would even know it happened as its washed away by the time they get up. Looks like it would flip briefly in those areas up to maybe a few inches in your area. 57hr I'm near an isothermal 0C from H8 to the surface with 0.25" having already fallen. By 60hr by low levels have torched to +2C. If the Euro comes around maybe I'll get a little more excited, but I won't hold my breath. I'd take 1" and run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Milinocket east to vim toot get rocked this run here in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Milinocket east to vim toot get rocked this run here in Maine Much better for NNE this run, though I'm still mostly dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Much better for NNE this run, though I'm still mostly dripping. I don't think were done just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah our 12km WRF has a monster thumping for Coos into interior Maine. Event #1 in their payback to us from October.It'll be interesting to see how this front end thump trends over the next 24hr for my region. 3-5" on this NAM run isn't too far to my NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haven't checked soundings, but it appears the NAM is a few inches on the front end with quite a thumping in Coos. If its good for you then its good for me. My extra 25 miles of latitude might help with an extra inch or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haha yeah... then we can continue a conversation with ourselves I love how if this were progged 150 miles further south at this point, on a Sunday night, this thread would have 150 users in it... growing pages of posts by the second. With people weenie-ing out in front of football and models... instead its just 3 of us or so. Don’t worry PF, we’re here watching the show, although in typical NNE reticent fashion for now. I noticed you showed what looked like the ECMWF snowfall maps from Weather Underground in one of your posts – it’s been really fun having those to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Need more cold air for down here. Being just below the vt border I hVe some latitude in my favor, but it's going to be ugly down here I fear. Your going to need a big shift south mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Don't get sucked into the NAM's colder profiles in a SWFE 54+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I guess 37F rain is better than 54F rain.... It would feel more Novembery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Your going to need a big shift south mike The further NE you are the better you'll be with this system due to the CAD saving the low levels. N NH/NW ME may end up mostly snow for the majority of the precip on the front end until the dry slot aloft moves through. That was how almost every SWFE played out for mby in 07/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Don't get sucked into the NAM's colder profiles in a SWFE 54+ hours out. I don't think anyone is buying it hook, line, and sinker, but it's more interesting to discuss than 10pm 50s in late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The further NE you are the better you'll be with this system due to the CAD saving the low levels. N NH/NW ME may end up mostly snow for the majority of the precip on the front end until the dry slot aloft moves through. That was how almost every SWFE played out for mby in 07/08. Verbatium on this nam run, Mtns and Central Maine would be looking at 10-14" mostly snow the further north and east you go, But i want to see some of the other models start showing these shifts, Its still rain here just colder for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think anyone is buying it hook, line, and sinker, but it's more interesting to discuss than 10pm 50s in late November. Most definitly, Lets see what the rest of the suite has to offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think anyone is buying it hook, line, and sinker, but it's more interesting to discuss than 10pm 50s in late November. Yes, that much is def true, lol. Euro would need to come in decently cooler for me to get excited in CNE for more than inch or two. It could happen...since the high is in e decent spot..esp for NH/ME...but its not that strong. It would be a lot nicer if it was like a 1035-1040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yes, that much is def true, lol. Euro would need to come in decently cooler for me to get excited in CNE for more than inch or two. It could happen...since the high is in e decent spot..esp for NH/ME...but its not that strong. It would be a lot nicer if it was like a 1035-1040. It was at 1032mb then goes to 1028mb, That range you posted would be better for more folks as well especially if was not retreating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This is an easy one. It's going to rain. Wake me up from my Turkey coma a week before Christmas, by then we might have something to talk about in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 00z GFS drops about 0.50" here before the 0C 850 moves through at about 57hr. The low levels get iffy a little before then, but I'd imagine I'd pull through with a sloppy 1-2" if it panned out similar to this. Anything measurable for November would be a victory in my book considering the string of dead ratter Novembers we've been on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 00z GFS drops about 0.50" here before the 0C 850 moves through at about 57hr. The low levels get iffy a little before then, but I'd imagine I'd pull through with a sloppy 1-2" if it panned out similar to this. Anything measurable for November would be a victory in my book considering the string of dead ratter Novembers we've been on. Your sig says it all. I just posted in the other thread, folks perceptions are all messed up due to the Oct storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Your sig says it all. I just posted in the other thread, folks perceptions are all messed up due to the Oct storm. A torch Oct/Nov with a record Oct snowstorm and maybe a little measurable in November...can't really complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 00z Ukie is even cooler than the NAM with the H85 low tracking over ALB. I won't be staying up for the EC. See you guys in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro came a little south. AWT. This won't surge NNE with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro came a little south. AWT. This won't surge NNE with warm air. It's quite an initial thump up here although the usual caveats apply including a warm H7-H85 layer. I just hope I can keep a cold enough sfc temp to accumulate. 6z NAM is close to mostly snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wow...6z GFS is way south. Cirrus for vim toot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's quite an initial thump up here although the usual caveats apply including a warm H7-H85 layer. I just hope I can keep a cold enough sfc temp to accumulate. 6z NAM is close to mostly snow here. I'll have to look at the weenie maps. COuld be a good thumping there and just to the north like over IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wow...6z GFS is way south. Cirrus for vim toot. lol I think it is on crack. The euro maps have the 850-700 line over your head at 06z Wednesday. It moves to near IZG by 09z, so the warmth does try to come in aloft, despite 850 temps below 0C. I wonder if good vvs can win out for a couple of hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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