moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 What a torch in anticipation of the mid-week rains. Got up to 63.2!! It's backed off a bit in the last hour, but it's still an unbearable 61.9/44. Well, back to splitting wood for winters yet to come. 61.9/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The cold is gonna drain south nicely overnight if the NAM is to be believed. 2M temps of 28F here by 7:00 AM tomorrow and only rebounding to about 38F. Tuesday also under 40. What a torch in anticipation of the mid-week rains. Got up to 63.2!! It's backed off a bit in the last hour, but it's still an unbearable 61.9/44. Well, back to splitting wood for winters yet to come. 61.9/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The cold is gonna drain south nicely overnight if the NAM is to be believed. 2M temps of 28F here by 7:00 AM tomorrow and only rebounding to about 38F. Tuesday also under 40. Well, it can't drain down soon enough. I guess the remaining questions for Wednesday will be 'how cold is the rain going to be' and is there any thing left to whiten the ground on Wednesday night. BOX is consistent in keeping flakes in the forecast for Wed night. 60.0/44. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Congrats to Vim Toot on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 OKX says rain and 59 for wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Congrats to Vim Toot on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z gfs nudges colder for NNE.. around .75" frozen for jay sugarloaf saddleback before ending as rain.. better agreement with the euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z gfs nudges colder for NNE.. better agreement with the euro too Yeah cold air holds on much longer this run, I think the models try and flood us with warm air to quickly most of the time, We may start to see this system start to tick back south some, It been at its furthest north point earlier on todays runs, It also looks to hang back some moisture once the lows pulls out and heights crash back SE flipping back over to snow to the coast, We shall see how that plays out on the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like some snowshowers after the torch rainstorm for thanksgiving on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Bummed that it's rain even far up into Central Vermont. Was hoping to have a white thanksgiving again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z GFS ensembles are further south with the low then the op run as it tracks it thru Pennsylvania and out underneath SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 OKX says rain and 59 for wed Good call for now. H5 does try to cut off, but it happens way to late for everyone except eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 12z EURO weenie snow graphics still look like a good front end burst of snow across CNE and NNE... then dryslot and rain showers, followed by back-end NW flow stuff. Maine gets lit up though on the backside for a bit. Montreal and southern Canada gets crushed. 12 hour break for rain and dryslot.... then back end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z GFS ensembles are further south with the low then the op run as it tracks it thru Pennsylvania and out underneath SNE We'll see that trend continue starting with 00z models tonight..That cold high up there means business..It will center jump south of us..and may result ina flip to backside snow for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 12z EURO weenie snow graphics still look like a good front end burst of snow across CNE and NNE... then dryslot and rain showers, followed by back-end NW flow stuff. Maine gets lit up though on the backside for a bit. Montreal and southern Canada gets crushed. 12 hour break for rain and dryslot.... then back end stuff. Would not mind seeing it paly out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Would not mind seeing it paly out that way And like you were saying with the GFS ensembles.... I would take this and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z GFS is a decent burst of snow for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 And like you were saying with the GFS ensembles.... I would take this and run... Typically you would side with the ensembles unless they both agree, I think we may see this come south towards the ensembles, The seem to be handling the CAD better, That would be a mostly snow solution even here where i am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 We'll see that trend continue starting with 00z models tonight..That cold high up there means business..It will center jump south of us..and may result ina flip to backside snow for some I agree, I think the ensembles are handling the cold better, If we can hold the high in longer before it slides east of here, The track would be underneath it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I agree, I think the ensembles are handling the cold better, If we can hold the high in longer before it slides east of here, The track would be underneath it Looks like you could be in a good spot, Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 I agree, I think the ensembles are handling the cold better, If we can hold the high in longer before it slides east of here, The track would be underneath it That seems to be the way BTV is hedging right now... a further SE track. They've got categorical chances of snow in the forecast already... I think they may be jumping the gun as all the op runs of GFS, ECM, CMC all have at least mixing up this far. This is the mountain forecast and the point 'n click is just straight up snow. Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 27. Southeast wind between 6 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday: Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like you could be in a good spot, Jeff. Yeah, Mike, But i am going to need some more help unless it ends up tracking where the ensembles have it, But the euro and cmc has the low south of the op gfs and the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 That seems to be the way BTV is hedging right now... a further SE track. They've got categorical chances of snow in the forecast already... I think they may be jumping the gun as all the op runs of GFS, ECM, CMC all have at least mixing up this far. This is the mountain forecast and the point 'n click is just straight up snow. Tuesday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 27. Southeast wind between 6 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday: Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. That looks legit, I think this will play out more towards the ensembles hopefully, Even HPC mentions the complexity in there AFD saying that they don't have model agreement with the op and ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Powder, what are u thinking for whiteface? Mostly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 That looks legit, I think this will play out more towards the ensembles hopefully, Even HPC mentions the complexity in there AFD saying that they don't have model agreement with the op and ensembles.. Yeah it will be interesting as we are starting to get into range when all the players are being sampled over NoAm seeing as we are now less than 72 hours from start time. I'm going with climo right now and unless this somehow redevelops south of the SNE coast and quickly, we will mix and rain up here. Its a textbook SWFE where you guys further east of Vermont stand to be in better shape (obviously the warm air hits here first)... unless we can get it to redevelop quicker and track further south like the ensembles halting the northward progression of the warm air. Latitude will help a lot in this one, but longitude will off-set that the further east you go due to CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Powder, what are u thinking for whiteface? Mostly rain? They'll start as snow... being in the northern Adirondacks with serious elevation, but like here I'd follow SWFE climo and say they mix and go to a 34-36F rain. Now whether its 1-2" and then rain, or 3-6" followed by showers and a dryslot, that'll be the question. The mountainous areas do stand to pick up a net gain overall, but it won't matter given whats coming in the Nov 25-30 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I was looking at the 15z srefs and they certainly don't agree with the Nam as they are quite a bit south of the Nam with the low track, But i think we are outside there usefulness right now but will watch these as well over the next day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 BOX's take: IVEN THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF IS EXPECTED. THE ISSUE OF PTYPEWILL STILL NEED TO BE NAILED DOWN. THERE IS STILL TIME ONTHIS...BUT AGREE WITH MUCH OF SNE EXPERIENCING SOME TIME IN THEWARM SECTOR...THAT RA WILL BE THE DOMINANT TYPE WITH ACCUMULATINGSN ONLY MOST LIKELY ABOVE 1000 FT. HOWEVER...GIVEN H92 TEMPS OF +4OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTHESE AREAS OF HIGH ELEVATION WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.WILL BE GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND TUE NIGHT WITH LOWSEXPECTED EARLY...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH SNOW EARLY INPRECIP ONSET. HOWEVER...SINCE THE GEFS MEAN SOLN CAN NOT BE RULEDOUT ATTM...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TOFILTER IN IN THE LLVLS BASED ON WHERE THE LOW ULTIMATELY TRACKS.ATTM...WILL CONTINUE LEAN WITH THE PREV FCST AND FAVOR SN ONLY INTHE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH A BRIEF CHANGEOVER ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA LATE WED NIGHT. DUE TO THE TIMING AND QUESTION MARKS THATSTILL REMAIN WITH THIS STORM...THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS FOR THEUPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTUPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 I was looking at the 15z srefs and they certainly don't agree with the Nam as they rae quite a bit south of the Nam with the low track, But i think we are outside there usefulness right now but will watch these as well over the next day or two Haha yeah... then we can continue a conversation with ourselves I love how if this were progged 150 miles further south at this point, on a Sunday night, this thread would have 150 users in it... growing pages of posts by the second. With people weenie-ing out in front of football and models... instead its just 3 of us or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 BOX's take: IVEN THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF IS EXPECTED. THE ISSUE OF PTYPEWILL STILL NEED TO BE NAILED DOWN. THERE IS STILL TIME ONTHIS...BUT AGREE WITH MUCH OF SNE EXPERIENCING SOME TIME IN THEWARM SECTOR...THAT RA WILL BE THE DOMINANT TYPE WITH ACCUMULATINGSN ONLY MOST LIKELY ABOVE 1000 FT. HOWEVER...GIVEN H92 TEMPS OF +4OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTHESE AREAS OF HIGH ELEVATION WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN.WILL BE GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL TREND TUE NIGHT WITH LOWSEXPECTED EARLY...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH SNOW EARLY INPRECIP ONSET. HOWEVER...SINCE THE GEFS MEAN SOLN CAN NOT BE RULEDOUT ATTM...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TOFILTER IN IN THE LLVLS BASED ON WHERE THE LOW ULTIMATELY TRACKS.ATTM...WILL CONTINUE LEAN WITH THE PREV FCST AND FAVOR SN ONLY INTHE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH A BRIEF CHANGEOVER ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA LATE WED NIGHT. DUE TO THE TIMING AND QUESTION MARKS THATSTILL REMAIN WITH THIS STORM...THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS FOR THEUPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTUPDATES. Thet are seeing the ensembles as well being south with the track, It would favor many more here in the northeast if thats where it ends up tracking but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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