dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The ensembles actually look similar to 06z, but there seems to be a lot of spread east of BOS. The large spacing of isobars seems to suggest some members like developing the low further se. The trend is our friend, Don't know if it will be enough in the end........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The ensembles actually look similar to 06z, but there seems to be a lot of spread east of BOS. The large spacing of isobars seems to suggest some members like developing the low further se. GEFS mean is like ACY-PVC. Not bad. Probably some snowy solutions in there for like Litchfield County through the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Of course the GEM takes the low into Ottawa still, how did I know it would be the warmest/furthest west of all the 12Z runs? And the Euro is not even out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If it tracks over Cape Cod versus cutting inland over SNE or up Hudson Valley...yeah it would produce snow for most of the interior. But I think it may be another tough jump to get this that far east. I can see a situation where its being a coastal hugger south of us, but it just comes straight north into SNE which would be mostly rain for us and snow for NY State. Hopefully we see it more east than that. Sounds like the Ukie wants to see a bit east. High res actually shows a track from just a smidge inside Cape May to south of Long Island to halfway between the benchmark and Nantucket-976mb. The lack of high to the north with the convoluted evolution appears to keep the major snow over Northwest Massachusetts and Eastern NY...but most cash in at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Will a coastal hugger produce warning snows in central NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Interesting to compare the 12z NAM to the 12z GFS at 84 hours at 500mb. Pretty sizable difference with the NAM definitely on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I don't know if you recall this Will, but you and I were discussiong G numerical model scores ...somewhere recently, and it was noted that the UKMET actually as a higher correlation coefficients (i.e. better) than the GFS. Again, I am beginning to really want to stress that the UKMET is over-coming its own native on-going bias of too much N-S component to its middle range depiction in getting a solution that is coastal-ward. I don't have a problem with going closer to some of those original GFS notions of 5 days ago or whenever this first came on a radar, for heretofore hammered reasons. The UKMET consistently has the second best model score wise in the medium range for a couple years now...with the ECMWF 1st, the GFS 3rd, and the GEM 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days. absolutely....happens ALL the time, much more frequently than the opposite. true HV runners are very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The sad thing is that was on the minds of half the members viewing this thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I wouldn't mind a March 8 2005 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Of course the GEM takes the low into Ottawa still, how did I know it would be the warmest/furthest west of all the 12Z runs? And the Euro is not even out yet... GEM playing right into it's bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 absolutely....happens ALL the time, much more frequently than the opposite. true HV runners are very rare. for sure...more often you'll see a coastal hugger or a low that passes west of BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Freeking too funny. You all need your heads examined Well at least the ones who didn't already jump off the bridge yesterday. Still 4+ days out, but nice to see the trend. Cautious optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 High res actually shows a track from just a smidge inside Cape May to south of Long Island to halfway between the benchmark and Nantucket-976mb. The lack of high to the north with the convoluted evolution appears to keep the major snow over Northwest Massachusetts and Eastern NY...but most cash in at some point. Yeah we need it bombing pretty quick to stay mostly snow over the interior. But I imagine as you said that most eventually go over to a good snow at some point with it passing that lat/lon....the "clipper" really screws us badly in those whole synoptic setup...its strong enough initially to produce a lot of WAA to get rid of our very cold airmass all while producing minimal precip as a reward....then it weakens as it heads east to a point where it has literally no CAA behind it to refresh the airmass before the big low comes in....its a perfect screw job. Hopefully the track is good enough to try and make up for the marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Things are going nicely, as expected, a very winter like regime for new england, especially away from the coast starting friday lasting into Tuesday. UKMET sounds fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GEM is more strung out its still west of everyone initially but it ends up further east instead of hooking back towards north of ottawa. definitely seems a trend towards the other models., likely due to less/later interaction with the Pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah we need it bombing pretty quick to stay mostly snow over the interior. But I imagine as you said that most eventually go over to a good snow at some point with it passing that lat/lon....the "clipper" really screws us badly in those whole synoptic setup...its strong enough initially to produce a lot of WAA to get rid of our very cold airmass all while producing minimal precip as a reward....then it weakens as it heads east to a point where it has literally no CAA behind it to refresh the airmass before the big low comes in....its a perfect screw job. Hopefully the track is good enough to try and make up for the marginal airmass. It's certainly a bomb alright. GFS is 975mb over DXR basically lol. Just gotta get that bomb over FMH or better yet CHH. It's going to take a lot because we're not getting any help up north but maybe we can thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are today's runs handling the strength of the NAO block any different for Sunday than what we've been seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Freeking too funny. You all need your heads examined Well at least the ones who didn't already jump off the bridge yesterday. Still 4+ days out, but nice to see the trend. Cautious optimism. Someone needs his head examined; this much is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah we need it bombing pretty quick to stay mostly snow over the interior. But I imagine as you said that most eventually go over to a good snow at some point with it passing that lat/lon....the "clipper" really screws us badly in those whole synoptic setup...its strong enough initially to produce a lot of WAA to get rid of our very cold airmass all while producing minimal precip as a reward....then it weakens as it heads east to a point where it has literally no CAA behind it to refresh the airmass before the big low comes in....its a perfect screw job. Hopefully the track is good enough to try and make up for the marginal airmass. Right even in the UKMET scenario...it doesn't really change over for central Mass and Western CT until the low is about due south of Montauk..when when winds turn more northerly at the surface between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. That southeasterly push of warm air early in the storm evolution is pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looking past whatever happens Sunday, it seems models want another storm chance around the 19-21 or so...give or take. Beyond that, I think we may see the Pacific relax a bit and heights rise, allowing for the cold in western Canada to come southeast. The difference between this year and last year, is that we have cold air in western Canada this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah we need it bombing pretty quick to stay mostly snow over the interior. But I imagine as you said that most eventually go over to a good snow at some point with it passing that lat/lon....the "clipper" really screws us badly in those whole synoptic setup...its strong enough initially to produce a lot of WAA to get rid of our very cold airmass all while producing minimal precip as a reward....then it weakens as it heads east to a point where it has literally no CAA behind it to refresh the airmass before the big low comes in....its a perfect screw job. Hopefully the track is good enough to try and make up for the marginal airmass. It's interesting that people were initially hoping for the clipper to cause more CAA and lower heights in the east, but the weaker/north trend of this first system actaully washes out the -15C 850mb temperatures that are currently in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Right even in the UKMET scenario...it doesn't really change over for central Mass and Western CT until the low is about due south of Montauk..when when winds turn more northerly at the surface between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. That southeasterly push of warm air early in the storm evolution is pretty strong. How much QPF after that point, any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Right even in the UKMET scenario...it doesn't really change over for central Mass and Western CT until the low is about due south of Montauk..when when winds turn more northerly at the surface between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. That southeasterly push of warm air early in the storm evolution is pretty strong. wow...it's slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 wow...it's slow If the PV and the Pac energy say separate there's nothing to yank it inland and speed it up. I think slower is definitely better! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I wouldn't mind a March 8 2005 again. was that the system that redeveloped to our south and produced a short but intense backlash over eastern MA into the evening? I remember driving home on 495 in true blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Heavy heavy anticipation for Dr No. I'm looking (ok ... hoping) for it to make a move east now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Snowing at Fort Rucker AL right now. Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If the PV and the Pac energy say separate there's nothing to yank it inland and speed it up. I think slower is definitely better! lol i think it's probably moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 How much QPF after that point, any idea? 10 mm or so for you it appears. Most of the precip in your area is rain with this run...but still get 4" of snow after changeover? Central and Eastern NY gets about 18" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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