I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[OSUmetstud]

Man if that could go just a little east. What a storm for parts of NY state. Lets hope the euro continues.

I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days.

[dryslot]

I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days.

I hope that happens with this one...........

[Typhoon Tip]

I tell you what ...that Pats game is going be interesting in Chi Town - teens and windy

[CoastalWx]

I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days.

I'd like that.

[snowNH]

I tell you what ...that Pats game is going be interesting in Chi Town - teens and windy

Hmmm.. Cutler or Brady in that one? Cutler could throw 8 ints

[dryslot]

I tell you what ...that Pats game is going be interesting in Chi Town - teens and windy

Kickers will have issues.........

[OKpowdah]

We really need better confluence to our north. There is zero high pressure to keep the intense southerly flow subdued. Else, this track would be able to give us a very good front end dump.

[CoastalWx]

So basically we want to cheer for the Pacific energy to remain weaker and separated from the Hudson Bay PV, but then dig like a mofo off the se coast. For sensible wx, you would likely still have to go through a rain storn prior to fropa, but the hope would be rapidly falling temps and snow from the second low bombing along the front. That's the JI solution..lol. Again, best chance (and this is a big IF) would be western NE.

[dryslot]

So basically we want to cheer for the Pacific energy to remain weaker and separated from the Hudson Bay PV, but then dig like a mofo off the se coast. For sensible wx, you would likely still have to go through a rain storn prior to fropa, but the hope would be rapidly falling temps and snow from the second low bombing along the front. That's the JI solution..lol. Again, best chance (and this is a big IF) would be western NE.

Where is our 1040mb high over quebec when you need it.......

[Typhoon Tip]

Geek facsination case in point 1: Regardless of what happens to anyone regarding this event ... have any of you noticed that the 12z GFS has heights approaching 590dm over Greenland!

I wonder what the straight up SD is on that? gotta be on the or of +8 I imagine -

[ORH_wxman]

Well its definitely an interesting trend to the east...but I don't think its going to help us a ton. Maybe where logan11 is will benefit a lot...but I think we're still going to be too far east. Hopefully we can get one more big jump, and then I'll be more interested.

It does look like the interior either way would start off as a few hours of snow/ice before going to rain.

[CoastalWx]

Geek facsination case in point 1: Regardless of what happens to anyone regarding this event ... have any of you noticed that the 12z GFS has heights approaching 590dm over Greenland!

I wonder what the straight up SD is on that? gotta be on the or of +8 I imagine -

You should see the surface temp departures progged for ne coast of Canada.

[dryslot]

Well its definitely an interesting trend to the east...but I don't think its going to help us a ton. Maybe where logan11 is will benefit a lot...but I think we're still going to be too far east. Hopefully we can get one more big jump, and then I'll be more interested.

It does look like the interior either way would start off as a few hours of snow/ice before going to rain.

Before the flood watches are issued..

[Tropopause_Fold]

Agreed here - p-type and snow dreams aside, that is a fantastic isollobaric wind pulse suggestion there... Could see damaging CAA blasts... mentioned this earlier

yeah depending on how wrapped up this becomes, not out of the question there's a couple of hours of fun there when it lifts through...short period of "backlash" snow for the interior/flashfreeze/damaging wind

[ORH_wxman]

I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days.

Yeah apps runners are so rare...they usually pick a side. When I went to school in Ithaca, most of the synoptic storms screwed west of I-81...BGM would often be the cutoff. At least BUF has amazing lake effect...in Ithaca, we were often left with the western fringe of the precip shield on a synoptic storm and rotting leftover snow showers that added up to 2" in like 10 hours from LES.

[OSUmetstud]

hmmm...interesting 12z UKMET has shifted significantly southeast. Looks like a coastal hugger...maybe from ACY to the CC Canal?

I only have the thinned in at the moment...I'll wait until the full resolution comes in to be certain...

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah apps runners are so rare...they usually pick a side. When I went to school in Ithaca, most of the synoptic storms screwed west of I-81...BGM would often be the cutoff. At least BUF has amazing lake effect...in Ithaca, we were often left with the western fringe of the precip shield on a synoptic storm and rotting leftover snow showers that added up to 2" in like 10 hours from LES.

That's correct...then after I left for Bermuda...Buffalo had 2 18+" synoptic storms in January and March 2008. They hadn't seen that I believe since March 1993.

[Typhoon Tip]

hmmm...interesting 12z UKMET has shifted significantly southeast. Looks like a coastal hugger...maybe from ACY to the CC Canal?

I only have the thinned in at the moment...I'll wait until the full resolution comes in to be certain...

Yeah, I'm beginning to hedge my bets toward a coastal Nor-easter of the mix p-type to snow variety just west of I-95 corridor from W NJ through Central NE.

I think the discussion points between CT Rain and Scootage re the longitudinal aspect of this amplification scenario, combined with the compressibility of the southeastern geopotential medium are going to ultimately be the demise of those previous Euro solutions. May not be outright depicted on the snap shot blend of the 12z guidance, but this is a trend we are in and one unresolved.

Also, I have been intrigued for the past 24 hours that the UKMET typically has the meridional bias in the middle range and it has been the farthest east all along. Not sure how telling that is, but interesting nonetheless.

Hammer cocked, slowly depressing the trigger - my ballies are too small at the moment.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder what Ray would do if the low bombs out moving north giving DCA-PHL snow, while he's 48 and rain.

[weatherwiz]

Next week just looks absolutely brutal cold wise, 850mb temps near -20C and 925mb temps between -10C and -15C...that's some serious cold.

[ORH_wxman]

This will actually be a pretty monster win for the Ukie if this storm ends up being more of a coastal hugger rather than cutting inland. Should be interesting. Its been east for a few runs.

[OSUmetstud]

My use to the forum really drops off after Thursday night...no more high res UKMET data.

[snowNH]

This will actually be a pretty monster win for the Ukie if this storm ends up being more of a coastal hugger rather than cutting inland. Should be interesting. Its been east for a few runs.

Will a coastal hugger produce warning snows in central NE?

[weatherwiz]

This will actually be a pretty monster win for the Ukie if this storm ends up being more of a coastal hugger rather than cutting inland. Should be interesting. Its been east for a few runs.

How far east would the Ukie solution bring snowfall? Would most of us have a chance to start off snow at least? Or even maybe end as some snow?

[ORH_wxman]

Will a coastal hugger produce warning snows in central NE?

If it tracks over Cape Cod versus cutting inland over SNE or up Hudson Valley...yeah it would produce snow for most of the interior. But I think it may be another tough jump to get this that far east. I can see a situation where its being a coastal hugger south of us, but it just comes straight north into SNE which would be mostly rain for us and snow for NY State. Hopefully we see it more east than that. Sounds like the Ukie wants to see a bit east.

[SnowMan]

I remember living in Buffalo seeing a ton of apps runners give us 1-2 ft of snow 5 days out only to see them shift to the coast in the last 3-5 days.

[CT Rain]

I wonder what Ray would do if the low bombs out moving north giving DCA-PHL snow, while he's 48 and rain.

Wow that will be ugly

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles actually look similar to 06z, but there seems to be a lot of spread east of BOS. The large spacing of isobars seems to suggest some members like developing the low further se.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The ensembles actually look similar to 06z, but there seems to be a lot of spread east of BOS. The large spacing of isobars seems to suggest some members like developing the low further se.

Dig for Cuba baby!

[Typhoon Tip]

This will actually be a pretty monster win for the Ukie if this storm ends up being more of a coastal hugger rather than cutting inland. Should be interesting. Its been east for a few runs.

I don't know if you recall this Will, but you and I were discussiong G numerical model scores ...somewhere recently, and it was noted that the UKMET actually as a higher correlation coefficients (i.e. better) than the GFS.

Again, I am beginning to really want to stress that the UKMET is over-coming its own native on-going bias of too much N-S component to its middle range depiction in getting a solution that is coastal-ward.

I don't have a problem with going closer to some of those original GFS notions of 5 days ago or whenever this first came on a radar, for heretofore hammered reasons.