Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lots of optimistic mets in other threads i am optimistic about the anafrontal potential with this storm.. it reminds me of dec 1, only with more cold air I'm guessing the 12Z Euro will come east of the Apps...the 00Z run sort of does the odd track I had been saying the GFS was showing over the spine of the Apps..my guess is we see something from around DC to Plattsburgh NY at 12Z...we'll see how it goes....NYC/PHL still need 50-100 miles or so more on what even the UKIE/GFS (06z) show to have a chance and I'd say really still the chances would be confined more to NYC/LI/Coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's never going to snow on us, Bob. Ever. I know. Reality can be a b**ch some times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Snow squalls still a possibility for God's Country today? Anyone care to do the WINDEX math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have to admit, I'm kind of holding onto some optimism, though... I also live way more west than you, and at 1000'...but I'm optimistic. Mangles flakes will be abound where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Mangles flakes will be abound where you are. only mangled flakes i got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 There is no lock on a solution yet. Numerous times over the years models have fluctuated. Tendencies to remember the what if scenerios and in the end rain that was forecasted as snowstorms. For once I would like to have a memorable D4 modeled rainstorm turn into a snowstorm. REALITY CHECK- Ah, always hope on the horizon...oh, the insanity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Lots of optimistic mets in other threads Maybe you should spend more time in the NYC thread and give us all a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm not sure how that first one is even a clipper now with a track across like James Bay and eastward.... Maybe it should be called a Hudson Bay mauler or something. now LOL. Initially it was going to dive down to like the lower lakes and pop a new one offshore and we had an inverted trough (norlun like) set-up etc. Boring here overnight with main lake streamers missing by perhaps 10 miles to the south.... Hey Rick....I'll never forget your IRC comment one time when a hoped for storm went way out to sea....something like..."guess it looks good for Bermuda..."...LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Maybe you should spend more time in the NYC thread and give us all a break. Not where i got those from. if you left the board noone would miss you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not where i got those from. if you left the board noone would miss you BOLD: I could only guess where you did! Underline and italicized text: If you did a lot of bandwith would be saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Must have been a storm from long ago. I see they have some kind of chat feature with this BB. I'll have to check that out because real time chat can be fun when an event is underway. Hey Rick....I'll never forget your IRC comment one time when a hoped for storm went way out to sea....something like..."guess it looks good for Bermuda..."...LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not where i got those from. if you left the board noone would miss you I would miss him. You, on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I would miss him. You, on the other hand... Same here. I feel Ryan does a very good job at keeping reality in perspective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Snow squalls still a possibility for God's Country today? Anyone care to do the WINDEX math? Marginal here in the foothills of Maine (IZG). What station would you like me to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 NAM says the flurries only in CT call by Debbie will verify: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Its the nam of course, but at hour 84 it looks pretty darn good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Its the nam of course, but at hour 84 it looks pretty darn good! for a rain storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Its the nam of course, but at hour 84 it looks pretty darn good! I had the same thought. Wow this big system regardless of what it does is opening up the floodgates. With blocking we'll cash in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Its the nam of course, but at hour 84 it looks pretty darn good! The 2 problems i see......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6z GFS has a big damaging wind signal next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The anafrontal scenario would definitely favor those with a more west longitude. So in theory, those in eastern PA like down by Philly have a better shot of this happening, than say Boston. The trough goes negative and the wave of low pressure moves along the front, due north. It is something to watch for western areas I suppose, but it's a very long shot for eastern mass. We'll have to see how 12z looks, because the second low forming could easily disappear on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The anafrontal scenario would definitely favor those with a more west longitude. So in theory, those in eastern PA like down by Philly have a better shot of this happening, than say Boston. The trough goes negative and the wave of low pressure moves along the front, due north. It is something to watch for western areas I suppose, but it's a very long shot for eastern mass. We'll have to see how 12z looks, because the second low forming could easily disappear on this run. I think we also want the whole thing to slow down a bit so the phasing with the PV happens as late as possible. Keeping the Pac energy weaker and more strung out like the 12z NAM has at 84 hours will definitely help out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The further east it gets the better........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6z GFS has a big damaging wind signal next Wednesday. it definitely has some ripping LL winds. of course...it's not really coming from the ideal direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looking at this 12z NAM solution over the deep south and southeast for 66 hours out, and look toward Florda: that is a hugely compressible field - meaning, there is almost no resistance at all to dig heights into that area. This may be why we are seeing some of this recent E adjusting. I covered this a couple days ago, regarding this often hidden factor - it's easy to slip beneath the radar considerations because it is an excruciating albeit important detail, however one that should not be ignored. At this point the big issue with the GFS/UKMET solutions - and yes Scott, there was a trend E in the Euro (don't get me wrong, Kevin should be liberally made fun of j/k Kev), it just wasn't demonstrative. Lovable Kevin just exaggerates where needed. Anyway, there is a lack of nascient positive PP N of, or in the area. We really need that to budge back some boundary layer forcing, or we WILL do a primary over, tripple point under type scenario given the blend of the GFS and UKMET. The fact that the ECM showed the east twitch (uh oh 'it moved') I think also hearkens to the earlier discussion regarding the longitudinal component of the overall domain from off the West Coast to the west Atlantic. There is a hidden W-E coordinate bias in there, and that means that the best trough amplitude as it comes east may do so with a somewhat of a anomalously long wave length (have to remember that these are not immovable objects and that the aspects such as wave-lengths are highly mutable in the atmosphere) relative to the typical R scheme. If the ridge out W pops higher in latitude, we shorten the w-length and the system will avail of this poorly time moderation of the NAO and cut under that circumstance. Barring that, the combination of a erstwhile SE compressibility prior to the amplitude arriving east of the MV, combined with the limited meridional aspect of the large scale synoptic domain et al really does offer room to nudge this east. I don't feel confident enough of that to go out on a limb and forecast it, but if I were tailoring a forecast for the public these points would and should give rise at least some consternation. Why deeper concern? Because one thing this synoptic event brings with it is sick gradients pre and post baroclinic translation. I have limited experience using the DGEX Frankenmodel but it's mid range depiction of 5F at ALB while it is 50F on the Cape is staggering, and although that may not verify verbatim the general idea will. Thermal gradient challenged this system shall not be! That has huge implications for threat because you really have big wind potential; there is a going to be some impressive short duration PP changes anyway, which can and does often produce the isollobaric response, but when the gradient is large you do over-turning and mix your llv jets very proficiently. As well, there will be abrupt transition zones where you have ephemeral warmth and mist versus winter harshness across small distances. simply put, a forecaster's nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it definitely has some ripping LL winds. of course...it's not really coming from the ideal direction. CT does well on NW wind events... hills and the valley can really rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 CT does well on NW wind events... hills and the valley can really rip i assumed you were talking pre-frontal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i assumed you were talking pre-frontal Oh I was talking about the 180 hour threat lol post-frontal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6z GFS has a big damaging wind signal next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think we also want the whole thing to slow down a bit so the phasing with the PV happens as late as possible. Keeping the Pac energy weaker and more strung out like the 12z NAM has at 84 hours will definitely help out some. I wish it wouldn't phase at all, but yeah I agree with that. The euro looked weaker with the Pac energy in the Midwest, but the whole ana thing is a long shot for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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