Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's too bad we have a garbage airmass ahead of the low. Even if that low somehow goes south of us, a ton of warmer air would get pulled in. Just loop the 850 temps and you'll see what I mean. However, on the backside...the arctic awaits. The ultimate weenie solution would be for that energy that Ryan, John, and I are referencing to.....have it really dig off the se coast and have the wave develop along it. So in terms of sensible wx, you would have a fropa come through, but then rapidly falling temps and snow develops. That's what the euro has for eastern NY state. That's why I made the comment about this thing needing to dig for Cuba. I'm dead serious. This system needs to be shoved East by about 200 miles for any sensible change in the outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You're my new favorite poster What am i? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What am i? My perennial least favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 My perennial least favorite. is that why you refernce me in at least 25% of your posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's why I made the comment about this thing needing to dig for Cuba. I'm dead serious. This system needs to be shoved East by about 200 miles for any sensible change in the outcome here. Which is why I don't feel good about it, imby..but the chances increase the further west you go. That's if the euro has a clue...we'll see what the 12z stuff does. Something like the euro, isn't far fetched for eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 is that why you refernce me in at least 25% of your posts? Because you constantly troll me and are the most frequent poster from my backyard. Are you working today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Which is why I don't feel good about it, imby..but the chances increase the further west you go. That's if the euro has a clue...we'll see what the 12z stuff does. Something like the euro, isn't far fetched for eastern NY. No argument there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Which is why I don't feel good about it, imby..but the chances increase the further west you go. That's if the euro has a clue...we'll see what the 12z stuff does. Something like the euro, isn't far fetched for eastern NY. I've never seen you so adamant that SNE doesn't stand a chance..Even the Euro gave N Ct and interior Mass a few inches. Will posted it another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 No argument there. It's going to take a miracle but this far into a decent pattern and nothing to show for it I'm definitely watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Because you constantly troll me and are the most frequent poster from my backyard. Are you working today? Yes..i work everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Tip.. I thought you had mentioned in this type of pattern, the models will have a really hard time forecasting past 96 hours.. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yes..i work everyday I'm looking for someone to grab drinks with after work... done at 1130 and it's my Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 well, it's 11 AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm looking for someone to grab drinks with after work... done at 1130 and it's my Friday If I was on the rd today I def would. But I'm doing some research stuff up in the Windsor office. and then going to Uconn game tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If I was on the rd today I def would. But I'm doing some research stuff up in the Windsor office. and then going to Uconn game tonight Are they at XL center tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z GFS is a bit flatter than 6z but the PV still looks like it's ready to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Tip.. I thought you had mentioned in this type of pattern, the models will have a really hard time forecasting past 96 hours.. no? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 If I was on the rd today I def would. But I'm doing some research stuff up in the Windsor office. and then going to Uconn game tonight I might go to the game tonight, I'll let you know.. and they're at Gampel. Ryan, come watch I'll get you a student ticket for $5. You could pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Are they at XL center tonight? Gampel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 is that why you refernce me in at least 25% of your posts? Even the best meteorologists occasionally make reference to the NOGAPS, JMA, and DGEX. Then again, if we were all weather models, you would be more like tea leaves in some old witch's cup, or the poems that accompany the astrological calendar in theOld Farmer's Almanac. "Soup is stewin' while stawrm's a brewin'! Nature's fury or just a flurry, either's nice but just not ice." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Gampel Oh and if you don't wanna pay $10 for parking you can park at my apartment and I'll drive you for free even if I'm not going, unless you're bringing your whole family or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even the best meteorologists occasionally make reference to the NOGAPS, JMA, and DGEX. Then again, if we were all weather models, you would be more like tea leaves in some old witch's cup, or the poems that accompany the astrological calendar in theOld Farmer's Almanac. "Soup is stewin' while stawrm's a brewin'! Nature's fury or just a flurry, either's nice but just not ice." To be honest I never look at any of those models. But as Kevin will tell you with the exception of some of the NYC area mets that post in their subforum I'm the worst met on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Eh, I don't mean to come off holier than thou but I never lost "optimisim" - if you want to call it. Actually RE that: I know I commiserate with the best of you but I really masterfully disconnect my mood from this stuff. I am utterly just as fascinated by weather as the next Meteorologist, but I really don't invest emotional energy either way, at all. At the end of the day, I like interesting stuff - even when the pattern is marked by ennui in the collective opinion of the weather community of enthusiasts and scientist, I can actually find something in there to geek over. I think maturation to that point requires experiencing enough "disappointments" and "let downs"; you become iron hulled, and eventually it just doesn't get to you. Once that frame of reference/approach to this sets in, THAT is when you start taking interesting in other things. I have actually been amazed at how blue the sky is in some airmasses versus others, when the flow is from the same source. ...Next thing you know I am peering over satellite and obs to find out what caused the change. It's all so meaningless to me to allow this stuff to affect one on a personal level; my advise? Don't -you will never, EVER win that battle. Having said that, I tried to offer reasons to be "optimistic" about this system ...dappled across several posts, including the one that started this thread, and I still believe in those aspects. Whether Kevin is right about the ECM, or Scott, (likely not the former na na na-na na), or Zeus comes in to save the day with a poking unnecessary reconnoiter over an argument that was thought to be settled....none of that matters. Focus on the fact that this entire synoptic regime has longitudinal wave-length bias written all over it, and as Scott and I discussed, given to the large compressibility factor in the SE (i.e., complete lack of rigding there), this has a rare powdered-ECM-failure-just-add-water. We'll see, but one thing we have not really broached in all this is the persistent depiction of a fast on-set westerly -based NAO resurgence that tries to pin a deep (-4SD) vortext nearby... It's an extended neat bit of synoptics going on there, and wouldn't it be interesting if a kind of quasi-CCB developed where you have a long marine polar fetch pummeling the area with steady light snow for like 36 to 48 hours? That can add up and would be really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Oh and if you don't wanna pay $10 for parking you can park at my apartment and I'll drive you for free even if I'm not going, unless you're bringing your whole family or something I have some sneaky spots I know of to park for free. Thanks for the offer though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I've never seen you so adamant that SNE doesn't stand a chance..Even the Euro gave N Ct and interior Mass a few inches. Will posted it another thread Well there is a difference in a few sloppy inches and a solid foot. Interior NW CT, W. MA and points N & W have the best shot at a sloppy few inches. We all know that. My focus is seeing how this can come East to get all of us with at least something. As it stands now, Phil, Scooter, myself and the rest of the posters East of the Berkshires aren't not in the best spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Tip.. I thought you had mentioned in this type of pattern, the models will have a really hard time forecasting past 96 hours.. no? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I've never seen you so adamant that SNE doesn't stand a chance..Even the Euro gave N Ct and interior Mass a few inches. Will posted it another thread You're misinterpreting what I said. I never said that. I think for my area this is a long shot, but for areas further west such as western CT, Berks etc...they have a better shot..even you do. I mentioned that several times. That said, I want to see more evidence from the models. It's not a good idea just to run with one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z GFS at 96hr looks to have gone a little SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have some sneaky spots I know of to park for free. Thanks for the offer though!! yeah no problem, I'll shoot you a message if I end up going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 12z GFS is a bit flatter than 6z but the PV still looks like it's ready to play. At least the trough is slightly negative/neutral as it hits the Mississippi at 5h thru 90h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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