ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This is a huge torch for the east...all of NY State and all of New England save northenr Maine is above 0C at 850 at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sounds like a burp run..thankfully Well the primary track isn't terribly different from 00z. Certainly west but not by a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This is a huge torch for the east...all of NY State and all of New England save northenr Maine is above 0C at 850 at 108 hours. 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 is the euro out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sounds like a burp run..thankfully hopefully it's not...it might help our chances beyond it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like more oak branches on Kevin's lawn again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well sports betting is a LOT different from model runs. Trends are important in weather and hardly have any role in sports, especially when teams face different teams. But I agree with you that this is really only one run. It's assuring to see the Euro trend east like the others. Whether this trend continues is the big question. But I think models generally tend to follow the trend than to revert. That said, this system has bounced back and forth it seems forever. Be interesting to see the next run. Well I wasn't referring to sports betting lol. Just giving an example that it's never good to just start getting emotional b/c of one little hiccup. I think the word trend gets way overused, just b/c you have two or three sets of models doing something a bit differently than post runs does not mean that is a trend...if it starts to occur on about 2-3 sets of runs than I would consider it a trend. But I don't think you can consider what we saw happen today with earlier runs a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is a track over Des Moines good for OES.... Pipe down, snowNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is a track over Des Moines good for OES.... I am talkng about for later in the week. Jeez. The secondary frontal wave develops as secondary vorticity rounds the base of the trough and comes up the coast. A frontal wave develops offshore, perhaps a track further west of the primary low can get the 500mb low to pull that offshore storm closer to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah a 985mb low just north of Lake Ontario is not usually conductive to wintry precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Better yet severe wind threat with a cranking LLJ. And Phil you may be right. It's so whacked out who knows what is coming by Monday night. I'm going to wager that we won't benefit much from a robust primary over Watertown, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The upper level trough goes insanely negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 How does the Euro look for the cold next week? Is it similar to the GFS with the brutal cold look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like more oak branches on Kevin's lawn again. pelted with acorns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sou'easter with hvy rain............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hopefully it's not...it might help our chances beyond it. Hopefully it blocks things up more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the "oh my gosh, the solutions are all over the place so anything is in play" posts are cute; I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Hopefully this run isn't correct for NNE, because this is an absolute unmitigated disaster for the ski areas. Torching rains after all their powder this week. I was actually hoping to do a day trip up there sometime this month, but that sucks if this solution occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Hopefully this run isn't correct for NNE, because this is an absolute unmitigated disaster for the ski areas. Torching rains after all their powder this week. I was actually hoping to do a day trip up there sometime this month, but that sucks if this solution occurs. Was just going to post that. It is awful for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 In all seriousness we should be tossing this run..It sounds almost impossible on what it's doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the primary track isn't terribly different from 00z. Certainly west but not by a ton. They look pretty different to me for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 In all seriousness we should be tossing this run..It sounds almost impossible on what it's doing Why? It just holds the primary longer and gets rid of the fantasy anafront low pressure in the end. The track of the primary is definitely west of 00z but not enough to make you go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Did CT RAIN hijack the euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well the primary track isn't terribly different from 00z. Certainly west but not by a ton. The surface low might be close...but the evolution is pretty far different IMO...no other guidance closes off at 500mb over the midwest. The Euro gained more separation from the PV...but it decided to go negative and stack the southern shortwave anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Bob that's partially a timing issue. The pimary at 00z went from like CIN-ERI-ROC... so initially yes, it's far NW but when it crosses Lake Erie/Ontario it's not a whole lot farther NW than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well it will be interesting to see where the ECMWF ensemble mean goes........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I want this to go negative like hell...it wants to develop another wave near the BM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The surface low might be close...but the evolution is pretty far different IMO...no other guidance closes off at 500mb over the midwest. The Euro gained more separation from the PV...but it decided to go negative and stack the southern shortwave anyway. Yeah it closes more than the 00z run did for sure and that explains the pull NW... but the overall outcome is pretty similar with the primary cutting way west with a negatively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Why? It just holds the primary longer and gets rid of the fantasy anafront low pressure in the end. The track of the primary is definitely west of 00z but not enough to make you go nuts. 65-70 with dews in the low 60's and damaging winds in mid December with a west based -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I think the "oh my gosh, the solutions are all over the place so anything is in play" posts are cute; I really do. I know.... the EURO has been onto this general idea since Saturday......those cries were a viable contention at that point, but by now it's been rendered an exercise in denial for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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